Speculating on a 269 electoral college is pretty much a waste right now. About as worthwhile as speculating that the 49ers will lose the Super Bowl by a field goal 3 years from now.
Plus, if we are losing Florida, we aren’t winning the other states mentioned. Other than Obama, FL’s been a solidly GOP state for over a decade. If we are losing it here, we’re in worse shape in other places than this scenario would point.
They aren't speculating on 269 EVs. They are speculating on the Tier 1 states and Florida is the only Tier 1 state in play.
The dem is going to win NY(29) and CA(55) for 84 total.
The GOP will win Tx(38) and if he wins FL(29) for a total 67, he is close enough to make it up in the Tier 2 and Tier 3 states. If the GOP loses FL, the dem is ahead 113 to 38, and there is essentially no way the GOPer can make up the deficit.
In 2000 Bush won florida with 700 votes, only because 90,000 votes were syphoned away from Gore. But that didn't win for Bush. He ultimately won with the handful of electoral votes from the Tier 3 state of WV.
In 2008 McCain got the nomination because he was the only GOP candidate who had a remote chance of winning Florida, and when it became apparent that he would lose FL, then he had to win with 3 of 4 from IL, MI, PA, OH.
That's what led to one of the big fights in the campaign. Palin wanted to go MI and McCain was telling her to go to PA.