Scary 1929 market chart gains traction

Marketwatch ^ | Feb 11, 2014 | Mark Hulbert

[Straight Vermonter]

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — There are eerie parallels between the stock market’s recent behavior and how it behaved right before the 1929 crash.

That at least is the conclusion reached by a frightening chart that has been making the rounds on Wall Street. The chart superimposes the market’s recent performance on top of a plot of its gyrations in 1928 and 1929.

The picture isn’t pretty. And it’s not as easy as you might think to wriggle out from underneath the bearish significance of this chart.

I should know, because I quoted a number of this chart’s skeptics in a column I wrote in early December. Yet the market over the last two months has continued to more or less closely follow the 1928-29 pattern outlined in that two-months-ago chart. If this correlation continues, the market faces a particularly rough period later this month and in early March. (See chart, courtesy of Tom McClellan of the McClellan Market Report; he in turn gives credit to Tom DeMark, a noted technical analyst who is the founder and CEO of DeMark Analytics.)

[Gritty]

It doesn’t take a weatherman to see which way the wind is blowing...

[cherokee1]

“confiscated”? well, sort of. In the case of Greece which is the most recent relevant example, the confiscation amounted to discounting the federal bonds by upwards of 80%. First they discounted, hair cutted, the ones held by banks then they whittled their way into personal holdings. That’s the situation I fear most here-—the gummint will simply tell banks holding federal bonds to kiss off.

[Uri’el-2012]

A Progressive Republican
followed by an Ultra-Progressive
Democrat.

Then as now.

[Two Kids' Dad]

I’m out of stocks and out of cash and out of precious metals and holding a Ziploc bag of random coins. LOL

[Uri’el-2012]

Hoover:

He(Hoover) had also called on the Federal Reserve Board to raise interest rates, but the board lowered them instead, thus fueling a stock market boom in the two years prior to his presidency.

Hoover and the Great Depression

[arthurus]

And if it crashes the main effect we non investors will see is that all that inflation that the FED has built into the money will start appearing big time in the prices we pay for food and everything else. The current 9% or so real price inflation will jump up.

[frithguild]

The 1929 leg down began when it became apparent there were the votes in the Senate to ensure that Smoot-Hawley would move to reconciliation.

[arthurus]

And Soros’s fortune will go from 20 billion to some multiple of that. He will become the most powerful man on Earth if he is not that already..

[arthurus]

Be thankful that George Soros is past 8- and that he doesn’t live to be 105.

[zzwhale]

get money out of the banks .... market crash is one thing but bank holiday is another... what about the 200 trillion in derivatives floating around... there is no way the financial markets can handle a stock market crash today. the QE tightening has a multiple ripple effect through the system and it is not positive. why did dhs buy 1.6 billion hollow point bullets.... not for target practice...

[Starboard]

The fed fueled gambling racket (aka: the stock market), is on the verge of going bust.

********
Where would the market be today without the Fed’s massive QE program? We’ll never know for sure but it certainly wouldn’t be anywhere near the level it is today.

In June 1929, the national debt was $17 billion. Interestingly, it is $17 trillion today. However, the debt to GDP ratio was only about 16% when the depression began; debt is about 100% of GDP today.

[krunkygirl]

bkmk

thanks for posting this.

[Revel]

the USA was in far better financial condition in 1929. In fact the government had no significant debt at all. Nor did the public. And such instruments of Fraud such as derivatives and MBS’s and whole works. There is a time coming soon when we may be going down for the last time.

[VRWCarea51]

I lost all of mine in the Great Global Warming Polar Vortex Catastrophe of ‘14. It was bad, total wipe out.

[BenLurkin]

bttt

[be-baw]

This is an example of how gamblers lose money when they think they found a system.

Excellent analogy. If I had paid heed to a lot of the investment articles posted here, I would have lost a lot of money.

[steve86]

Time fibs and absolute level fibs can be in different ranges.

In other words, the different absolute ranges over one year in itself is not misleading.

[Hulka]

Said during an interview in Mexico and while on the grid. . .First rule about going off grid, don’t tell people where you are and don’t hold a press conference telling people where you are.

;-)

[mjp]

The money supply increased (in billions) from 20.8 in 1921 to 24.9 in 1925, or nearly 20%, and from 24.9 in 1925 to 26.4 in 1929, or 6%.If there is a similar deceleration of the rate of increase in the money supply now, then look out.

[devolve]

- a 3 year boy on TV news today : “Please Jesus make it warm!” -