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To: AuH2ORepublican
The numbers I put up come from NBCNews.com 2012 election coverage.

They are state polls, not national polls.

I am trying to verify with additional sources, but no luck at the moment.

I used to have three links to state exit polls for 2012 - CNN, NBC, and Fox - and all of them used the National Election Pool, which is usually accepted as most accurate.

CNN and Fox have blacked out those state links, so I can't check there.

Pew Research and PBS have excellent state polling on toss up states, but no polls on Texas or Georgia, so I can't check there, either.

I will keep trying.

If you have a link for your numbers, please send it.

Several numbers caught my eye in your response.

The 65% white vote in Georgia is the same I have.

But, only 55% of Georgia residents are non-Hispanic white.

So, if Black turn out exceeded white turn out, as you say, then Black turn out must have been in the range of 36% of the total vote, or higher.

That puts Black + white voters above 100%, BEFORE we count Hispanics and Asians and Mixed Race.

Finally - Texas was 38.2% Hispanic in 2012.

Since Hispanics are the fastest growing demographic in Texas, I rounded up to 40% for the 2014 election.

Sorry for not making that clear.

Once again, your link would be helpful, if you are using one.

33 posted on 02/09/2014 7:03:55 PM PST by zeestephen
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To: zeestephen

Well, if the numbers you got were by state, you are confusing GA and TX with two other states, because you are way off.

In GA, black turnout was as high if not higher than white turnout: http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/05/08/18131900-a-census-first-black-voter-turnout-passes-whites?lite Whites (I assume that they meant non- Hispanic whites) were 65% of voters

Romney carried GA whites by 76%-23% over Obama, with whites (presumably non-Hispanic) constituting 65% of Georgians casting votes. http://www.amren.com/features/2012/11/race-and-the-2012-election/ Given that fact, how could you explain blacks being less than 30% of voters in the election? You can’t, since Romney didn’t get over 60% statewide (which he would have if blacks were only 13% of voters), and since Hispanics plus Asians plus Native Americans were liess than 4% of voters in GA (see below).

As for the fact that white Anglos are only 55% of GA’s total population but cast 65% of votes, that isn’t due to some huge overperformance: the number we need to look at is percentage of the 18+ citizen population, since kids and non-citizens can’t vote. Hispanics are 9% of the total population in GA, but are only 3% of eligible voters and less than 2% of registered voters. http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/10/01/latinos-in-the-2012-election-georgia/ Those data from just prior to the 2012 elections show white Anglos as 59% of registered voters and blacks as 30% of registered voters, with Hispanics as 1.8% and Asians 1.4%!of registered voters, but with 8% as “two or more races” and other categories. Given the turnout numbers (with blacks having perhaps higher turniut than whites in GA—they certainly did in the South as a whole), I may have been lowballing black turnout by putting it at 231% to 32%, at least if we include persons of two of more races as black when one of the races is black (which is usually the case).

So your numbers are way, way off, and Inguarantee you that you didn’t read anywhere that blacks were 13% of the GA electorate in 2012. And blacks don’t have much room to grow as a percentage of the GA electorate in 2014, much less in the GOP-held CDs (blacks were packed into four black-majority, overwhelmingly Dem CDs).


34 posted on 02/10/2014 2:23:23 AM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll defend your rights?)
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