Replies

“In Georgia, 31% of the population is Black.

In 2012, even with a Black presidential candidate, just 13% of voters were Black.”

You are correct that blacks are 31% of GA’s population, but the 13% figure that you cite is the percentage of the *nationwide* electorate that was black; in GA in 2012, 31% or 32% of voters were black. Blacks had a higher turnout than whites in GA, and whites were down to 65% of voters.

It is unlikely that blacks will be a higher percentage of the GA electorate in 2014 than in 2012. But let’s say that you’re right: there just aren’t enough blacks in GA-01 or any of the other GOP-held CDs to make up for their strong Republican lean. Even GA-01, which I agree is the least Republican GOP-held CD in the state (BTW, you don’t even seem to know that Kingston is running for the Senate, so the seat is open), gave Romney a 56%-43% victory over Obama. And unlike the Senate seat, Democrats aren’t even contesting the GA-01: no Democrat candidate has reported raising *any* money (and all are nobodies), while 5 Republicans reported having raised between $100,000 and $550,000 as of December 31.

Your theiry that GOP House seats in GA are in peril of falling to the RATs is not based on reality.

And your numbers in Texas are just as wrong as those in GA. You were almost correctvregarding the Hispanic percentage of the population (it’s 38%), but the lercentage of Hispanics among voters in TX in 2012 was 21%, not 10%. And the lowest Romney percentage in a GOP-held CD in TX was 57% in TX-32. Moreover, the RATs aren’t contesting any TX House districts held by the GOP. So, again, all you’ve got going for you is defeatism and pessimism, with no facts to back you up.

The numbers I put up come from NBCNews.com 2012 election coverage.

They are state polls, not national polls.

I am trying to verify with additional sources, but no luck at the moment.

I used to have three links to state exit polls for 2012 - CNN, NBC, and Fox - and all of them used the National Election Pool, which is usually accepted as most accurate.

CNN and Fox have blacked out those state links, so I can't check there.

Pew Research and PBS have excellent state polling on toss up states, but no polls on Texas or Georgia, so I can't check there, either.

I will keep trying.

If you have a link for your numbers, please send it.

Several numbers caught my eye in your response.

The 65% white vote in Georgia is the same I have.

But, only 55% of Georgia residents are non-Hispanic white.

So, if Black turn out exceeded white turn out, as you say, then Black turn out must have been in the range of 36% of the total vote, or higher.

That puts Black + white voters above 100%, BEFORE we count Hispanics and Asians and Mixed Race.

Finally - Texas was 38.2% Hispanic in 2012.

Since Hispanics are the fastest growing demographic in Texas, I rounded up to 40% for the 2014 election.

Sorry for not making that clear.

Once again, your link would be helpful, if you are using one.