I'm not so sure... The Rasmussen poll linked above (post 8) was Likely Voters. It showed McConnell and Grimes tied. Bevin was slightly ahead of Grimes.
But, I agree that the numbers are skewed now, for all the reasons you stated. I'm not worried about my state voting Republican in a State wide election... barring, as you say, an "Akin-like" self-inflicted wound. Which, yes... would be more likely from Bevin than from McConnell. But, we've got 3 months to go. Let's see how the campaigning goes.
Another little tidbit buried in this poll. Not sure it’s valid everywhere, but.. in Kentucky? The ONLY demographic group that likes ObamaCare? Blacks.
At least, they are the ONLY group that doesn’t have >50% favoring Repeal & Replace.
The crosstabs are behind Rasmussen’s paywall, but I wouldn’t put too much weight on the Ras poll. Ras has been terrible since Scott Rasmussen left the firm (not that they were very good in 2012).
Here’s an item that surely Grimey will make hay of if Bevin wins the nomination: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/370605/bevin-facebook-post-enjoying-time-john-birch-society-union-ky-betsy-woodruff
Now, I’ve always had a soft spot in my heart for Birchers, but they seem to have gone a bit kooky during the past few decades, and finding crazy stuff they’ve said of late won’t take Grimey more than 5 minutes of research. Bevin did not not show good judgment by speaking at their meeting (to put it mildly). But the most interesting part of the story is that, in Bevin’s attempt to brush off the controversy by saying that there were “mainstream people” there as well, he noted that the event was attended by staffers of both Senator Rand Paul and Congressman Thomas Massie ... i.e., the two Paulistinians in the KY congressional delegation (and two of only four Paulbots in Congress, with the others being Congressmen Amash and Bentivolio of Michigan). Oh, and the Rand Paul staffer who attended the meeting recently quit to join the Bevin campaign (despite Rand Paul “supporting” McConnell). This does nothing to quell my very strong suspicions that Bevin is a Paultard.