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To: tanknetter; Viennacon; fieldmarshaldj; Clintonfatigued; randita; Galactic Overlord-In-Chief; ...
The question is whether Dems will try to pull a Torricelli bait/switch and yank her from the ticket at the last minute and replace with someone who might have a better chance. But is there any Dem in LA at this point who would?

I would say no, there is not.

15 posted on 02/01/2014 4:58:51 PM PST by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: Impy; tanknetter; Viennacon; fieldmarshaldj; Clintonfatigued; randita; ...

Somewhat related to the Cassidy-Landrieu Senate race: black conservative Republican Dr. Charles “Trey” Thomas has entered the LA-06 race to replace Cassidy. See http://thehayride.com/2014/01/another-first-time-candidate-enters-the-6th-district-race/ and http://www.charlestreythomas.com/. Dr. Thomas is a 34-year-old former LSU football player, educator, businessman and Executive Director of Family Values Resource Institute.

According to the article from The Hayride from the first paragraph of this post, the frontrunner seems to be 28-year-old technology entrepreneur Paul Dietzel, whose grandfather was the LSU football coach, so Dr. Thomas is neither the youngest Republican candidate nor the one with the strongest link to LSU football. I know very little about these two candidates (or the others who also have announced), but I am a bit concerned that Dietzel appears to have been adopted by Paulistinians from Texas—of course, the fact that Paulbots like a candidate doesn’t make such candidate a Paultard, but when someone without a political record bursts into the scene and is supported by the L. Ron Paul cult it certainly should be scrutinized to ensure that the candidate himself isn’t a cult member.

Given the large number of candidates with no obvious superstar, I think it’s almost certain that no one will get 50%+1 in the November general and thus the top two vote-getters will proceed to a December run-off. If one Republican and one Democrat make the run-off, the Republican would be guaranteed victory in what now is the second most Republican district in the state (black parts of Baton Rouge were appended to the New Orleans-based LA-02 in 2012 redistricting). But perhaps two Republicans will make the run-off, in which case it will be very interesting how it turns out. A Dietzel-Thomas run-off would get national attention, although if Landrieu manages to keep Cassidy under 50% in the first round and forces a Senate run-off it will overshadow the House race.

BTW, there is a third possible scenario; given that exactly two Democrats have filed to run in the LA-06, it is mathematically possible for the two to get around 15% each while the six Republicans running split the remaining 70% by each getting 14%, thus resulting in the two Democrats going to the run-off. This would be the mirror image of what the GOP managed to do in CA-31 in 2012, where two Republicans split 40% and finished one-two, thus making the run-off. in the jungle primary. But I think that it is highly unlikely that such scenario could be replicated in LA-06, since two largely unknown Democrats would be lucky to get a combined 30% in the first round, and it would be extremely unlikely for the 70% Republican vote to be split exactly equally among five candidates. Of course, the filing deadline isn’t until August 22, and if several additional Republicans jump in (Tony Perkins may be considering a run, and other names have been mentioned), who the heck knows what will happen?


23 posted on 02/03/2014 7:21:22 AM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll defend your rights?)
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