I don’t know how fast sales of natural gas trucks and buses is accelerating. It looks like sales of electric vehicles are moving up fast. Sales tripled in 2012 and doubled again in 2013. They are coming off a small base however. I don’t think the big car companies are pushing them. However, the success of Tesla may force the big car companies to push electric cars harder.
Total sales of electric cars were something over 90k in 2013. Tesla sold about 21k of those. Tesla expects to sell over 40k cars in 2014.
Hard to say what the future will bring. However, this kind of growth is considered to be viral. If it keeps up for 5-10 years—it will take a significant bite out of the demand for oil—especially as more trucks and buses shift over to natural gas.
The tell will come in 2015-2016 when Tesla promises to have a 30k car that drives over 200 miles on one battery charge—like their current 80k car —. If that happens, then the long term future (10-15 years)goes out of fracking oil and deep sea oil.
3 x 2 = 6
More early retirees buying golf carts.
If they can find a way to recharge the batteries quickly, that will help sell these cars.
If they can find a way to charge them at home, without help from the grid, that will make these cars skyrocket.
Too bad the things can’t be run off capacitors. As I understand it, you can fill capacitors rapidly. You can also empty them rapidly. For fast turn-around, nothing beats the capacitor. And if you need peek power, the capacitor is there to empty on demand, much faster than a battery.
The hottest electric cars leave winter drivers out in the cold
In other news, sales of ten mile long electric extension cords have doubled.