Maryland and Virginia have the same track record now -- both have elected precisely 1 Republican governor for a single term in the last twelve years, over four election cycles (Virgina: McDonnell, Maryland: Ehlrich), and then the RATs retook the Governor's office again. Both McDonnell and Ehrlich were pretty decent guys. O'Malley took back the governor's office with 52% in Maryland, hardly a landslide.
RATs have dominated all the recent U.S. Senate races in both states. When it came to open Senate seats, Steel ran a competitive race in Maryland and George Allen ran a competitive Senate in Virginia. Gilmore was buried in Virginia and Maryland's other Senate seat (Mikulski) has had an entrenched RAT forever.
The Lt. Governor, Attorney General and Comptroller RATs in Maryland were entrenched incumbents running for re-election, so it can't be compared to competitive races for those open seats in Virgina.
Overall, Virginia's record in the past decade has been far closer to its neighboring Maryland than a middle of the road state like Ohio, Florida, Nevada, or Wisconsin. All of the latter four examples have elected numerous Republicans as Senators and Governors in the same amount of time. I'm not happy about it, but nevertheless those are the cards we've been dealt. If I was a strategist for the RNC, I'd spend much more time and attention on the latter four before I'd spend resources in a state that keeps electing horrible socialists whether it's a good year or bad year for the GOP.
Here’s some comparabile numbers:
Nevada
President (R) 1 time (2004)
Governor (R) 3 times (2002, 2006, 2010)
Senator (R) 2 times (2006, 2012)
Ohio
President (R) 1 time (2004)
Governor (R) 2 times (2002, 2010)
Senator- (R) 2 times (2004, 2010)
Florida
President (R) 1 time (2004)
Governor (R) 3 times (2002, 2006, 2010)
Senator (R) 2 times (2004, 2010)
Wisconsin
President (R) 0 times
Governor (R) 2 times (2010, 2012)
Senator (R) 1 time (2010)
Virginia
President (R) 1 time (2004)
Governor (R) 1 time (2009)
Senator (R) 1 time (2002)
The only “swing state” with a track record as poor for the GOP as Virginia is perhaps Wisconsin, though the difference is Wisconsin has had a decade of electing RATs and is now trending right-ward in the last election cycle (with the exception being its 2012 presidential vote), and Virginia has been electing RATs for the last decade and is now trending even more leftward in the recent election cycles (with the exception being a narrow win for a GOP governor in 2009). Other than that, Virginia’s sparse example of a GOP “win” was when RINO John Warner was re-elected over a decade ago in 2002). Wisconsin shows much more recent promise for the GOP with Ron Johnson beating a powerful RAT incumbent in 2010, and Scott Walker taking back the Governor’s office in 2010 and then soundly defeating a recall attempt in 2012.
My money is on all four the above states performing better for the GOP in 2014 as well. Virginia have had a reputation as a “conservative” state in the past, but sadly it is now become further left than any of the above states.