Posted on 01/09/2014 7:45:34 AM PST by tired&retired
STORM WARNING: NOAA forecasters estimate a 90% chance of geomagnetic storms on Jan. 9th when a CME is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The speed of the solar wind around Earth could spike to 700 km/s (1.6 million mph) shortly after the impact, sharply compressing Earth's magnetosphere. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.
http://spaceweather.com/
HUGE SUNSPOT, CHANCE OF FLARES: The source of the incoming CME is AR1944, one of the largest sunspots of the current solar cycle. The active region sprawls across more than 200,000 km of solar terrain and contains dozens of dark cores. The largest could swallow Earth three times over. AR1944 is circled in this Jan. 9th snapshot from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory.
The sunspot is almost directly facing Earth. This makes it a threat for geoeffective eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate an 80% chance of M-class flares and a 50% chance of X-flares on Jan. 9th.
That’s very interesting...I was just noticing that the amount of static electricity seem very high today. Every time a move another shock. I wonder if there is any connection?
And perhaps some radio interference.
Historical Correlation of the Dalton and Maunder Minima with Sunspot Activity The very cold temperatures from 1790 through 1830 are usually explained as being due to increased volcanic activity, including the Mount Tambora eruption of 1815 that caused the Year Without a Summer, 1816. However, low solar activity, with peak Sunspot counts of only 45 for Sunspot Cycles #5 and #6, is most likely the major cause. Even lower Sunspot counts (below 10) occurred during the earlier Maunder Minimum (1650 to 1700). These periods of Global Cooling were marked by crop failures that are inimicable to human life.
What the guy in that video says does not conflict with what I said which is that low solar activity doesn't cause anything directly (nor high activity).
He is showing the 300 mb jet on that video not the vortex at 10 mb. The Vortex is simply a low pressure in the stratosphere and he is correct at the end when he says "continuity with the upper stratospheric flow". The jet he shows does feedback to the vortex and the vortex can then coincide with a dip in the jet if it is broken by a vertical intrusion from that same jet. But they are not the same thing.
It is true that the SSW's are more likely at times of low solar activity (e.g. the largest ever was Jan 1997) they also take place with medium activity (e.g. Jan 84 mentioned above). Again, there is no direct cause and effect, just a tendency for low solar activity to result in uneven heating the stratosphere and thus a tendency (but by no means a certainty) of these types of events. They are simply terrestrial weather which overrides any effect the sun has or human CO2 for that matter.
Nothing to concern yourself with. Your daughter’s flight will be unaffected.
It means nothing. Really.
Ah, good clarification. I’m kinda new to the whole sun watching thingy and how it impacts earth.
Then we have a difference of opinion on ‘routine’: according to the chart linked at post 15 above, this magnitude occurs several times per solar cycle (11-ish years). Even accepting your ‘over 12 years’ figure, that’s still roughly once per solar cycle. And even t that, it’s not a Babylon-desolation-like event.
S5 level? Then yeah, I’d be a lot more concerned. S3 is stout, but it’s not gonna invoke Revelations 18.
It means she is headed to a better place ;)
Wine a little. You'll feel better.
Never said it wasn’t... but you started by invoking the apocalypse.
No book covers today.
I’m all bummed. It’s overcast and snowing. One of the few chances to see the northern lights from my house, and we have too much cloud coverage. :-( Maybe I’ll catch a break by later this evening...
January 9th is almost over....... are we doomed yet? Are we? ~~~~sob~~~~
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