STORM WARNING: NOAA forecasters estimate a 90% chance of geomagnetic storms on Jan. 9th

spaceweather.com/ ^ | January 9, 2014 | Spaceweather.com

[tired&retired]

STORM WARNING: NOAA forecasters estimate a 90% chance of geomagnetic storms on Jan. 9th when a CME is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The speed of the solar wind around Earth could spike to 700 km/s (1.6 million mph) shortly after the impact, sharply compressing Earth's magnetosphere. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

http://spaceweather.com/

HUGE SUNSPOT, CHANCE OF FLARES: The source of the incoming CME is AR1944, one of the largest sunspots of the current solar cycle. The active region sprawls across more than 200,000 km of solar terrain and contains dozens of dark cores. The largest could swallow Earth three times over. AR1944 is circled in this Jan. 9th snapshot from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory.

The sunspot is almost directly facing Earth. This makes it a threat for geoeffective eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate an 80% chance of M-class flares and a 50% chance of X-flares on Jan. 9th.

[mware]

The last time it happen that I can remember is during Reagan's second inaugural. They canceled the parade because of the danger it would have on those marching in it, or watching it.

[RobinOfKingston]

These stories are so hyper.

For the vast number of creatures on earth, what this means is that the Aurora will be visible farther South than normal and it will be more spectacular.

Catastrophism sells.

[Yosemitest]

Very interesting:

"On Saturday, September 3, 1859, the Baltimore American and Commercial Advertiser reported,
"Those who happened to be out late on Thursday night had an opportunity of witnessing another magnificent display of the auroral lights.
The phenomenon was very similar to the display on Sunday night, though at times the light was, if possible, more brilliant, and the prismatic hues more varied and gorgeous.
The light appeared to cover the whole firmament, apparently like a luminous cloud, through which the stars of the larger magnitude indistinctly shone.
The light was greater than that of the moon at its full, but had an indescribable softness and delicacy that seemed to envelop everything upon which it rested.
Between 12 and 1 o'clock, when the display was at its full brilliancy, the quiet streets of the city resting under this strange light, presented a beautiful as well as singular appearance."[10]"

Don't forget about the March 1989 geomagnetic storm that knocked out power in Canada, with its Quebec blackout.

[Conservative4Ever]

Where are the little stick figures running in circles yelling...we’re all gonna die?

[null and void]

On very rare occasions they dump enough energy onto the planet to mess up electronics and power grids. See the Carrington Event where induced currents were high enough to zap telegraphers, arc telegraph lines and start the odd fire or two at telegraph stations.

At higher risk are communications satellites which are outside our protective atmosphere.

[tired&retired]

Yosemitest

Thanks for very informative posts.

[Shery]

Is this more hype? Is Obama trying to cause a panic so he can institute martial law?

[CJ Wolf]

“The polar vortex can stretch like the recent event or even break in two like more severe cold snaps in the 80’s and 90’s. The solar activity (high or low) does not cause anything directly.”

Some people believe differently. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ivcycdvO1A&feature=c4-overview&list=UUTiL1q9YbrVam5nP2xzFTWQ

[Yosemitest]

"These events are actually reasonably routine."

This one is NOT "reasonably routine". According to the sources I've been reading, there hasn't been a solar flare of this magnitude in over 12 Years.

[tired&retired]

Yosemitest I read an article some time ago that I would like your input. Geomagnetism_Daily Movement of the North Magnetic Pole It is important to realize that the position of the North Magnetic Pole given for a particular year is an average position. The Magnetic Pole wanders daily around this average position and, on days when the magnetic field is disturbed, may be displaced by 80 km or more. Although the North Magnetic Pole's motion on any given day is irregular, the average path forms a well-defined oval. The diagram shows the average path on disturbed days. The cause of the North Magnetic Pole's diurnal motion is quite different than that of its secular motion. If we measure the Earth's magnetic field continually, such as is done at a magnetic observatory, we will see that it changes during the course of a day - sometimes slowly, sometimes rapidly. The ultimate cause of these fluctuations is the Sun. The Sun constantly emits charged particles that, on encountering the Earth's magnetic field, cause electric currents to flow in the ionosphere and magnetosphere. These electric currents disturb the magnetic field, resulting in a temporary shift in the North Magnetic Pole's position. The size and direction of this shift varies with time, in step with the magnetic field fluctuations.

[Yosemitest]

You'd better watch this.
According to the BATSRUS Model from the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), they're expecting significant Solar Pressure to mash our Magnetosphere down to at least "4 point 5" .

[Carriage Hill]

Go for it!

B&E Breakfast Cups

[faucetman]

“Yes, the current cycle has been very unpredictable.”

OF COURSE it’s “unpredictable”. These warnings should be followed by the caveat “Past performance does not guarantee future results.”

It is the SUN! It does what it wants. These scientists (I mean weathermen) should stop thinking they can predict the future. THEY ARE GUESSING!

[tired&retired]

I had a dream/vision several months ago where I was shown the path of the Magnetic North Pole over a long period of time as it spiraled around the Geographic North Pole. In the vision, as the Magnetic North Pole path moved away from the Geographic North Pole, the dipolar field strength of the earth increased and the earth cooled. As the path moved toward the alignment with the two poles, the dipolar field weakened and the earth’s magnetosphere decreased causing the earth to warm.

Thus the rotation of the earth’s core on the magnetic axis spinning on a greater differential from the geographic axis caused a greater output (like a dynamo), thus increasing our dipolar field. As the two pole aligned on the same axis, the friction decreased between the core and the crust decreasing output and weakening our dipolar field, and thus the magnetosphere strength.

One travel cycle lasted about 2000 years.

The Sun reverses its polarity every 11.5 years and the change is in opposition to the earth’s polarity about every 23 yrs. This is a period of solar max.

The perfect storm can only occur when the sun is at solar max in reverse polarity and the earth is at magnetosphere minimum which happens every 2000+- years, or every 46,000 years.

This came to me when I was pondering the question, “Why is the earth’s gravitational field currently decreasing?” The vision included one dot moving around another stationary dot to form a pattern that looked like the petals on a flower. The second part showed two lines moving from a more perpendicular position to a single alignment of both.

[Yosemitest]

Just last night on the Science Channel, I watched a one hour program on the changes in the Earth's inner core and the magnetic fields.
They showed studies on the Atlantic nominally.
I can't remember the title, but it was about the decrease in the earth's gravity over the southern Atlantic and Argentina, and how that weakness bubble was moving slowly from east to west, deep inside the earth.
They talked about how it affected our magnetic shield,by distorting it.

Earth's Rotating Inner Core Shifts Its Speed

That article is similar, but not the same as that one hour show I watched.

[Yosemitest]

I believe that Revelation 18 is not too far away, and I believe it will happen.
When? I don't know, but I believe ... soon.

[tired&retired]

They have monitored the sun for many 11.5 year cycles. However, it is acting different in the current cycle.

[Yosemitest]

“Why is the earth's gravitational field currently decreasing?”

I don't know, but I was thinking about this last night as I was watching that show.
I wondered about core cooling, similar to Mars, but since we have a larger iron core than would have normally been

(small planetary strike resulting in our larger core, and our moon)

and if our core might be cooling just a little.
But on the other side, gravitational tugging from the Sun and other planets might cause some planetary flexing and tidal flexing, that would also cause frictional heat in our inner-core.

Just pondering different ways it might be happening ...

[tired&retired]

Shortly after my vision, I emailed the details to a leading geophysicist who specializes in planetary shifts. He wrote back that the density of the earth’s core was much greater than most and thus it did not follow the same patterns.

[palmer]

The polar vortex has been around forever and the term was around in the 1960's when Lindzen, one of the more honest weather/climate scientists, studied it.

January 1984 had a major SSW where the vortex broke in two and one part came down and brought surface polar air to Reagan's inaugural.