Posted on 12/15/2013 4:44:19 PM PST by kronos77
“The main reason expanding trade ties with the EU is a bad idea is because its a fading market going forward.”
So its better to be economically tied to Russia?
Since Ukraine gets most of its energy from Russia, they may have no choice but lean towards Russia. The EU cannot supply Ukraine with the energy lost from Russia.
I have been pretty harshly criticized as a ‘Putin boot-licker’ simply for complementing his domestic policy and what seems like genuine patriotism. I can understand many Freepers still thinking of things in Cold-War terms, but the world is not as clear cut as it was back then nowadays.
When Hosni Mubarak was ousted from power, I gave my voice to the side that said Egypt was better off with him. Now, looking at Mubarak’s economic policy, the man was a disaster. He had also brutalized his people in some ways, or at least looked the other way as it had occurred. What’s more, he had plundered from his nation’s wealth to gild his own palaces. But still, I complemented him on the fact that I think he did genuinely care about Egypt’s future and was the only force who kept the Muslim Brotherhood out of power.
Lines cannot be so clearly drawn between good and bad in the modern world. Putin is an oligarch. He does shield political and economic corruption from criticism. He has likely ordered assassinations and imprisonments. His election, though I doubt it was stolen (none of his opponents are very impressive or compelling), was definitely tinged with fraud and illegalities.
But I can see some of the good things he has done for a country that often struggles to find its identity and place in the world.
Must we always label good and evil so plainly, or can’t we take complicated individuals at face value, and try to understand them more as we move forward with hopes that in the future, we can tone down hostilities between two countries that both have a lot to offer?
“Since Ukraine gets most of its energy from Russia, they may have no choice but lean towards Russia.”
Germany gets its gas from Russia. They didn’t have to join Russia’s Eurasian Union. You can, just buy gas from a country.
And the irony is astounding. The first trade agreement that you have ever supported on this website was dictated by Vladimir Putin. LOLOL
Poland and Hungary have both grown economically since integration (Poland more-so), but I still would not say they’ve seen any kind of national miracle occur. Just look at the amount of Poles who leave Poland to go to the UK. Why do they do that? Poland will always be competing with their western neighbors for the same trade, and will always be playing second fiddle to countries like Germany.
Hungary also suffered horribly during the recession, which is why there has been a backlash against the EU there.
And such plays have not benefited every country involved. Look at Greece, where its competitiveness has essentially hit zero. The EU has essentially killed Greece by allowing it to scrounge off of the north until the time came to pay the piper. Now the Greek population has no idea how to create wealth anymore.
I don’t think its such a bad idea either to have culturally similar countries promote trade amongst themselves first. We have always had strong trade ties with the UK because of that cultural link, even though we were once bitter rivals. Ukraine is really the natural trade partner of Russia owing to the close proximity and strong agricultural potential of Ukraine. It has been called the bread basket on more than one occasion, and they are a great customer for Russian gas.
In fact, I’d argue one of the EUs biggest flaws is it does lack that cultural link. The way Southern European economies like Spain and Italy are run was never going to work well with the Northern economies like Germany and Denmark. Eventually, the south was going to become that son who stays at home until he’s thirty and never does the dishes.
No one will call you a “Putin boot-licker” unless you offer him a sovereign nation in order to appease him.
In the long run, yes. If the current trajectory continues, Russia will see its demographic slide reverse, and that has been the real hindrance to its economy. Like Japan, Russians just don’t have enough kids.
Meanwhile, Europe is just seeing a population transfer as the natives die off and leave in mass exodus, and third world (usually Muslim) immigrants flood in.
A lot of it depends on your economic perspective. What do you think the world economy will look like in 30 years? If you think we’ll have hover-cars made in Germany, and Paris will be the economic capital of the west, then the deal sounds like a no-brainer.
But, if you think we are entering a global downturn where all of the ‘funny money’ dries up, and economic stability is much more dependent upon natural resources and manpower than zeroes on Wall Street, then it is wiser to gravitate towards Russia. Though it is never wise to hand over sovereignty or political power to foreigners in ANY circumstance.
Its ridiculous to tell people in Ukraine to keep suffering because in thirty years Russian economy may pick up.
In the east, they aren’t suffering.
Thanks to omega4412 for giving us the general population figures for comparison, and to goldstategop for pointing out the geographic distribution I already knews. Now, does anyone have a religious (or even geographic) breakdown of the pro-E.U. faction in comparison with the Ukrainian population as a whole? That was my question, not anything about the religious demographics of Ukraine per se.
Why cry wolf?
>>>In the east, they aren’t suffering.<<<
In fact they are. They are better off than the rest of Ukrainians but they could do much better if they haven’t been forced to pay for welfare and development programs of the rest of “pro-Western” Ukraine.
Pro-EU protesters are certainly not about to improve their conditions via enterprise and hard work using European deal.
For some reason they believe EU freebies are better and they can soon move to Germany to leech taxpayers there.
For the eastern businesses and blue collars who are actually living not through welfare and bailouts but through work and trade (mainly with Russia and CIS nations)EU deal is a huge risk for their products to be taxed by Russian customs on par with the rest of EU products.
bkmk
Russia has supported and armed nearly every nation that is hostile towards America, including Iraq under Saddam Hussein, Iran under Ahmadinejad, North Korea, Venezuela under Chavez, Syria, Cuba, on and on. All of these things well after the so-called 'collapse' of the Soviet Union, including the KGB Putin years.
“In the east, they aren’t suffering.”
I’m sorry but with that comment you lose all credibility. and prove you have never been to Ukraine.
Eastern Ukraine has a lot of the jobs, mainly thanks to a coal industry with strong trade ties in Russia. It’s the westerners who are out protesting because there are not jobs in the west.
Do they live like kings? Do they live like Americans? No. It’s dirty and dangerous work, but to say Ukraine is suffering like some kind of Third World country with a famine is just ridiculous. These people have low standards of living, and are used to low standards of living, in fact, they’re used to a hell of as lot lower standards than they have right now.
Here’s an excerpt from the Yahoo article.
— Galaburda said the town had seen even worse times after the 2004 Orange Revolution protests that led to a pro-Western government in Kiev.
“We are afraid that it could get worse,” he said. “Under the Orange government, we weren’t seeing any pay at all. Now life seems slowly to be getting better.” —
These people do not want the government to sacrifice their trade ties with Russia for westernern Ukrainians who likely are just looking for any way to leave the country for good and follow the Poles and Romanians to Britain.
These protests are being led by the western half of Ukraine who have been out of work for a long time. The easterners are largely for staying the course. If this wasn’t the case, they’d be out there demanding the government step down as well, but they’re not. Because they have jobs to go to and families to feed. They’re not students, they’re workers.
Look at this article for crying out loud!
http://www.firstpost.com/world/ukrainian-students-join-eu-rallies-smart-phones-in-hand-1254205.html
Smart phones?! The east probably suffers more than the west does. I bet nobody in the east has a damn smart phone.
Well, that’s true. The east accuses the west of ‘sponging’ and a lot of the students in the capital do sponge.
The logic of the easterners are simple. Imagine they have a GM plant cranking Chevrolets at a base price of $19,000.
It is extremely expensive for an average Ukrainian customer but considered cheap for a Russian. There is also a shop in Russia making Fords at $20,000 per unit, and Lada making a $16,000 low end vehicles. Lada has more horsepower and better equipped but somehow less reliable, Ford has better reputation than Chevy and both are liked by a “Buy Russian” crowd but there are a lot of greedy customers are choosing Ukrainian Chevy for a price-quality combination.
Now imagine if Ukraine is not into a Russian custom union? Russia has awful tariffs for foreign products. To bring things into perspective, base US-made Camaro is about $70,000. Now go try sell a $19,000 Chevy sedan for $40,000 while Audi actually builds A4s in Russia which sells at $40,000.
Would Ukrainians sell a $19,000 Chevy in Europe as their domestic market lacks any capacity? The answer is “no”. It might be ok for an American or Russian taste but for a German it is an absolutely substandard vehicle. It won’t pass beyond test drive ever.
It is true about the rest of Ukrainian businesses which are shaped for a Russian market (from confectionary to aircraft engines).
Thanks for the in-depth analysis. I’d assume a lot of former Soviet country’s economeis are geared toward a Russian market rather than a European one.
And I actually prefer our large vehicles to Europe’s matchbox cars for everyday travel. They do have nicer sports cars though.
” but to say Ukraine is suffering like some kind of Third World country with a famine is just ridiculous.”
“but to say Ukraine is suffering like some kind of Third World country with a famine is just ridiculous”
“These people have low standards of living, and are used to low standards of living,”
Do you understand the difference between famine and poor nutrition because of poverty? Your telling Ukrainians who are the third poorest country in Europe (after Moldava & Kosovo) to not want a better future for themselves and their children.
POLLS IN EASTERN UKRAINE(more Russian areas) SHOW MAJORITY WANT EU.
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