Even with Syria’s Iranian Ally, Shiism drives Alawites to Religious Extinction

Times of Israel ^ | October 3, 2012, 9:39 pm | Gedalyah Reback

[Zhang Fei]

Judaism has been ravaged in its long exile from Jerusalem. Its adherents have faced pressure from the Church to convert throughout European history, persecution from Sunnis during the decline of Spain and by Shiites in 19th century Iran. But it’s been a fortunate minority to survive and adapt to its surroundings. Other minorities have not been so lucky, and Bashar al-Assad’s people maybe following the path to extinction.

(snip)

Many politicians and historians have revived the idea of an independent Alawi state, almost exactly as designed by the French 90 years ago. The country would have a viable population: 3 million. It would control two major ports: Latakia and Tartus. It would have legitimacy from another minority group that fears the regime’s collapse to Islamists: Syrian Christians. The country would be an economically and militarily capable state that would shield its traditional minority population in a country where they’d be the dominant forces.

The Assad regime might be containing the situation, but its military forces are spread thin. Eventually, a staged withdrawal to a consolidated area is the smartest idea if the regime wants to retain power over anything:

By gradually shifting its power base to Latakia, the Assad regime could continue a protracted civil war with assistance from Iran and Russia. – Dilip Hiro

[Zhang Fei]

Military developments have obviously moved in the Alawites' favor since the article was written. However, if insufficient numbers of Sunni Arabs have fled abroad to improve the demographic balance for Alawites in Syria, this kind of rebellion could flare up again, so the essay remains very relevant. Obviously proselytization is an option, but that's a long-term endeavor fraught with land mines, because of murderous Sunni tendencies on the subject of apostasy.