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Social networks can help predict gun violence
Washington Post ^ | December 3, 2013 | Andrew V. Papachristos

Posted on 12/04/2013 6:58:03 AM PST by kobald

Is it possible to predict who is most likely to die at the hands of a gun? Not shootings like those at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Connecticut, the movie theater in Aurora, Colo., or the Washington Navy Yard, but the all-too-common shootings that occur in neighborhoods across the country.

The idea is not far-fetched if one drills down into the nature of gun violence, which, in the way it is transmitted, bears striking similarities to public health epidemics such as cholera in Haiti or HIV/AIDS in the United States.

Epidemics of any kind are not random...

More than 40 percent of all gun homicides in the study occurred within a network of 3,100 people, roughly 4 percent of the community’s population. Simply being among the 4 percent increased a person’s odds of being killed by a gun by 900 percent.

These numbers tell us that gun violence spreads like HIV infection: You’re more likely to “catch” the disease if you engage in risky behaviors with someone who might be infected. And it’s not just people’s friends who affect their likelihood of getting shot, but also their friends’ friends. This is similar to the transmission of HIV: Your current partner’s past sexual partners affect your exposure, even if you don’t know them...

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society
KEYWORDS: crime; criminals; guncontrol; society
The TL:DR version -- "It's the criminal subculture, stupid".
1 posted on 12/04/2013 6:58:04 AM PST by kobald
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To: kobald

Figures that WaPo wants to dance around the truth — civilization has collapsed in our urban areas.


2 posted on 12/04/2013 7:03:44 AM PST by BenLurkin (This is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire; or both.)
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To: kobald
"These numbers tell us that gun violence spreads like HIV infection: You’re more likely to “catch” the disease if you engage in risky behaviors with someone who might be infected"

I just love the way the article dances around the mentioning the common demographic characteristic of the communities where these "outbreaks" occur.

3 posted on 12/04/2013 7:05:10 AM PST by circlecity
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To: kobald

Social networks can help predict gun violence

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Already in California; school districts are spying and snooping on students Facebook pages, Twitter accounts and other social media. They are contracting out to different companies who can monitor and report back any suspicious activity that might lead to violence at school.

It begs the difficult question; freedom or safety?


4 posted on 12/04/2013 7:08:38 AM PST by Responsibility2nd (NO LIBS. This Means Liberals and (L)libertarians! Same Thing. NO LIBS!!)
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To: kobald
"Understanding the networked nature of gun violence has important implications for how it can be addressed. Prevention efforts can be directed toward those individuals and communities most susceptible to the infection. The solution is not broad, sweeping policies, such as New York’s “stop and frisk” or mass arrests, but the opposite: highly targeted efforts to reach specific people in specific places, akin to providing clean needles to drug users to prevent the spread of HIV."

Bwhahaha. We already know which "individuals and communities are more susceptible" and we have identified which "specific people and specific places" are at issue here. And there no way is going to target this populatlion and impose the "efforts" necessary to deal with the problem.

5 posted on 12/04/2013 7:09:43 AM PST by circlecity
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To: kobald
Social networks can help predict gun violence

Duh WP, its called profiling. I can walk down any street and easily point out who is most likely to use a gun illegally or be shot.

6 posted on 12/04/2013 7:20:37 AM PST by SampleMan (Feral Humans are the refuse of socialism.)
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To: kobald
The idea is not far-fetched if one drills down into the nature of gun violence, which, in the way it is transmitted, bears striking similarities to public health epidemics such as cholera in Haiti or HIV/AIDS in the United States.

See, commoners? Only professional public health scientists can make informed decisions on your civil rights. If it looks like an epidemic, it is an epidemic; if it's an epidemic, only experts' opinions count,

7 posted on 12/04/2013 7:23:43 AM PST by Standing Wolf (No tyrant should ever be allowed to die of natural causes.)
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To: kobald

Obviously it is time to cease criminalizing the victims of this gun violence pathogen. Sort of “hate the shooting, but love the shooter”. Shooters are badly in need increased social services such as counseling, financial support from the community, etc. etc.

In the meantime, the rest of us need to learn how to duck ...


8 posted on 12/04/2013 7:29:50 AM PST by Vesparado (The American people know what they want and they deserve to get it good and hard --- HL Mencken)
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To: Responsibility2nd

Given the fact that over half of all Twitter and Facebook accounts are fake, the authorities are going to get played in a really big way IMO.


9 posted on 12/04/2013 7:42:19 AM PST by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Responsibility2nd
It begs the difficult question; freedom or safety?

The tone of this article is to get the public to acquiesce to the NSA (or other Government snoop agency) constantly monitoring our private messages. 'All for the greater good'...

Big Government always becomes evil -- it can't help itself. It wants to become God, and people want to worship it rather than the True God.

10 posted on 12/04/2013 7:50:07 AM PST by El Cid (Believe on the Lord Jesus Christ, and thou shalt be saved, and thy house...)
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To: kobald

News flash! People killed in shootings are more likely to have long arrest records. I want 10 million dollars from the government for a study to help understand the cause and significance of that discovery.


11 posted on 12/04/2013 8:13:38 AM PST by Hugin ( More firepower!)
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To: kobald

Isn’t this just a fancy, ten-dollar-word version of the more succint phrase, “Urban Thugs Shoot People”?


12 posted on 12/04/2013 8:16:27 AM PST by Lazamataz (Early 2009 to 7/21/2013 - RIP my little girl Cathy. You were the best cat ever. You will be missed.)
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To: Buckeye McFrog

Yeah, but kids are stupid when it comes to social media and the internet. They really believe they can post threats on their FB page and get away with it.

I’m thinking now of a boy near me who was role playing on the web. He made threats against children. He was role playing. On some internet game. Did he mean it?

Doens’t matter. He was arrested and went to jail.


13 posted on 12/04/2013 8:18:49 AM PST by Responsibility2nd (NO LIBS. This Means Liberals and (L)libertarians! Same Thing. NO LIBS!!)
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To: kobald

They will bastardize this study and use it to target FReepers as a danger to society.


14 posted on 12/04/2013 8:39:28 AM PST by G Larry (Let his days be few; and let another take his office. Psalms 109:8)
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