The ultimate outcome that I am sure about is that Ukraine has developed as a sovereign nation, that will in the foreseeable future trend Westerly. Russian Federation can now write off any idea of a voluntary re-union with Ukraine and is more firmly trending toward Asia where it sees itself as an important player. Further, Putin’s USSR 2.0 will be more clearly seen as an anti-Russian political fiction, that can only survive till the Russian nation regains its nationhood. Unfortunately, the mood in RF is ugly as even the opposition continues to see Ukraine as some kind of possession. That bodes ill to the revival of nationalist Russia, which can only survive if it overcomes its Soviet impulses.
The EU does not want Ukraine as a full member; they are too big and too socially conservative. Nor is that of paramount importance for the Ukrainian people; they would much rather get European trade without European bureaucracy.
It is possible that Eastern Ukraine — the Donetsk Basin and Crimea, — will separate and maybe join the RF. A war in unlikely; a little show of force in the style of South Ossetia exercise of 2008 is possible. The outcome for these regions is unclear.
Okay. Thanks for your analysis.
May God protect the Ukrainian people. They surely have suffered in the past.