Ted Cruz Has Been Spending A Lot of Time Iowa: Can He Win the Iowa Caucus?

Houston Press ^ | Dec. 2 2013 at 7:00 AM | Calvin TerBeek

[SoConPubbie]

Billwhittaker

Ted Cruz wants to be President of these United States. While this is unlikely -- the party elites dislike him, view him as an electoral disaster waiting to happen and he would never emerge from the "invisible primary" as the GOP elites' choice -- Cruz dares to dream. Thus, he has been spending an inordinate amount of time in Iowa, known for its social conservatism on the GOP side of the fence. (I wonder how you feel about him spending his time in the Senate as a platform for his presidential aspirations rather than focusing on governing -- but it's not like Texas is going to go blue -- or even purple -- anytime real soon).

First, it is interesting to note that Cruz is taking the exact opposite approach that took Obama to the White House: once elected to the Senate, Obama turned down almost every national interview request and tried to take on the appearance of a serious legislator (at least initially). Cruz, on the other hand, has been the proverbial political show horse, the moth to the media's flame.

Looking to capitalize on his media fame, as of late October, Cruz had been to Iowa three times in three months. One reporter thinks Cruz is simply introducing himself to a state where people don't know him (he's a "curiosity"); another reports that he may already be wearing out his welcome.

But right now, Cruz and Rand Paul are the "buzziest" candidates in Iowa. This is no surprise, they are probably closest ideologically to the last two winners of the Iowa Republican Caucus: Rick Santorum (2012) and Mike Huckabee (2008). I'm specifically excluding Rick Perry since he will simply not be able to raise adequate campaign funds in the invisible primary -- Perry's not a show horse so much as an equine who needs to humanely euthanized.

It's unlikely Cruz is wearing out his welcome, and more likely that he is building a foundation for January 2016. We know that only the most politically dialed-in voters are paying attention right now, and we know that Cruz is not the only GOP pol spending time in Iowa. Making a "prediction" two years out is a fool's errand, but Cruz is certainly a front-runner to win the Iowa caucus -- he won't sniff the Oval Office though.

[SoConPubbie]

	"If we must have an enemy at the head of Government, let it be one whom we can oppose, and for whom we are not responsible, who will not involve our party in the disgrace of his foolish and bad measures." - Alexander Hamilton "We don't intend to turn the Republican Party over to the traitors in the battle just ended. We will have no more of those candidates who are pledged to the same goals as our opposition and who seek our support. Turning the Party over to the so-called moderates wouldn’t make any sense at all." -- President Ronald Reagan "A thing moderately good is not so good as it ought to be. Moderation in temper is always a virtue; but moderation in principle is always a vice." - Thomas Paine 1792 "It does not take a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men." - Samuel Adams "If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen." - Samuel Adams

[SoConPubbie]

Ted Cruz Ping!

If you want on/off this ping list, please let me know.

Please beware, this is a high-volume ping list!

[july4thfreedomfoundation]

“He won’t sniff the Oval Office, though.”

Unlike the nobody who wrote this editorial, who spends most of his time sniffing two things.....glue, and Obama’s butt.

[cripplecreek]

The party elites are an electoral disaster who are apparently too stupid to figure it out. McCain and Romney were both moderate disasters so they want to double down.

[Starboard]

The worse Obamacare looks, the better Ted looks. He’s riding the wave! :)

[JJHLH1]

Senator Cruz will win in 2016 because he is the best candidate from either party. And it will be an anti-establishment message that will resonate with the electorate, especially after they experience the harmful effects of Obamacare for 3 years. Our current situation reminds me very much of the late 1970's which allowed the Reagan victories, which turned America around for a generation. Obama fatigue is already setting in 3 years out from the election, and it will only get worse.

[FlingWingFlyer]

It’s sick to listen to the commie maggots who gave America Adolf Hitler Jr., calling people like Ted Cruz too extreme for America. They are clueless.

[Abathar]

So early for predictions yet, but mine will be a merger of our two parties to beat Hillary.

Whether Cruz is on the top or the bottom of the ticket is the $64k question though...

[alloysteel]

The Iowa Caucus has always been a dicey thing, with the voices of only a very few able to sway the fortunes of prospective Presidential candidates, and while it may be “representative”, it clearly does not speak with any kind of certitude for candidates of ANY party, and definitely not of the Republican party. The Democrats are already pretty largely bought and paid for, and it makes little difference who the selection is rigged in favor of. NO ideological differences are suffered within the ranks, and the Democrat “maverick” is swiftly squelched.

But for Republicans, there is a broad streak of Progressive infestation within the party, enough so to either exalt or doom a candidate very early on, with various “mavericks” drummed up quickly, making the decision capricious, mercurial, and fickle, or the perceived conservative front-runner getting mercilessly dumped.

And don’t think the various selectees to attend these caucuses are not already pre-chosen with no regard to the actual representation of opinion within the party. The Progressives have already undermined any honest attempt to test the opinions to the people they pretend to speak for.

[onedoug]

CRUZ 2016!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[kitkat]

>>They [the Libs] are clueless.>>

They aren’t clueless, they’re scared to death of Cruz. GOOD

[dangus]

Why would any candidate go to Iowa? Great people, and I highly respect their decisions, but doing crappy in Iowa only makes you look better when you “gain momentum” by winning in New Hampshire. And thats where Cruz really will need to sell himself.

[a fool in paradise]

(I wonder how you feel about him spending his time in the Senate as a platform for his presidential aspirations rather than focusing on governing

Spoken like a liberal elite with his panties in a wad.

They loathe Ted Cruz at the Houston Press. You'd think that if he wasn't going to support their agenda in the legislature (he isn't in the governor's office), and the 51% majority vote Senate isn't going to let him fillibuster, then what difference does it make at this time anyway?

[Servant of the Cross]

I haven’t seen anything like it for a long time, probably ever.... He combines a lot of qualities of a lot of people into one package.... I believe he is a liberal’s worst nightmare ... influential Iowa evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats, head of The Family Leader organization

[DoodleDawg]

And thats where Cruz really will need to sell himself.

As a blue state I imagine it'll be Christie country. Cruz needs to come in second or third and the win South Carolina big.

[dangus]

New Hampshire cannot be written off as a blue state.

[TomGuy]

The party elites are more interested in maintaining the status quo than in winning elections. They still have their jobs, their incomes, their power and influence. They are satisfied with that.

The dissatisfaction is mostly from fly-over country. The elites ignore fly-over country whenever possible.

==

Conservatives/Right Wing need to be cautious and not fall into the same trap they got caught up in for 2008 and 2012 — having too many weak candidates diluting the vote and basically handing the nomination to the choice of the elites.

Consider 2012: it had too many also-rans, none having much of a following.

The one who might have been kind of “flakey”
The one who forget which 3rd department to be eliminated
The one who forced to resign the House speakership
The one who couldn’t win reelection for the Senate
The one who seemed to have zipper problems
The one who lost to the one who lost to Obama in 2008

What a list!

If 2016 has the same list of wannabes and a few more with similar backgrounds, they are going to hand the election to another democrat.

[Bringbackthedraft]

The only thing to remember is, the MSM will push for the most likely to lose GOP candidate they can find. The candidate they destroy the most is the one that should be picked, as that is the one they fear the most.

[cripplecreek]

The dissatisfaction is mostly from fly-over country. The elites ignore fly-over country whenever possible.

Rush nailed it during the presidential primary.

Rush: Romney is winning like a liberal

Rush Goes On the Record with Fox News Channel's Greta Van Susteren (2011)

The Republican Party is trying to do something in this primary that is unprecedented. They're trying to split the conservative vote and win the primary with a moderate, with Romney. It's the other way around. You consolidate your base and then you move to the center in the general. The Republican establishment has decided they don't want any part of conservatism. And this is really not new. People are surprised to hear this, but the Republican Party formative event with conservatism is Goldwater's landslide defeat. That's what they think of when they think conservative. They don't think Reagan. They think Goldwater.

They believe what the inside-the-Beltway philosophy is about conservatives. They're racist, sexist, bigot, homophobe, Southern hayseed hicks. They're pro-lifers. They're embarrassing to have to go to the convention with them. And they're just embarrassed to have those kind of people in the party. They're dumb. They're not erudite. They're not educated in Ivy League schools. We'll take their votes on election day, but we really don't want to hang around with them. We don't want anybody in Washington thinking that we're really that close to them and aligned with them. So in the process -- you know, it's a very sophisticated electorate. The Republican primary voter can sense that the Republican Party really doesn't like them, really doesn't want them, thinks that they are the route to defeat. That's the problem in a nutshell. The Republican establishment thinks that a conservative nominee is the route to defeat because they think Goldwater landslides are going to happen because they believe what the popular misconception the left has created of conservatives -- they think everybody thinks that.

[Cyber Liberty]

An interesting question when stripped of the campaign-speak. Can Cruz win in Iowa? I say probably not. IA has been a one-issue state for quite a while: The candidate must support the Ethanol pork boondoggle.

IA is decided purely on pork, and this is the worst pork imaginable because it also requires adherence to Al Gore’s religion of Globull Climate Change. Losing IA would be a badge of honor.