Posted on 11/20/2013 9:33:30 AM PST by Dysart
THE recent announcement by a team of astronomers that there could be as many as 40 billion habitable planets in our galaxy has further fueled the speculation, popular even among many distinguished scientists, that the universe is teeming with life.
The astronomer Geoffrey W. Marcy of the University of California, Berkeley, an experienced planet hunter and co-author of the study that generated the finding, said that it “represents one great leap toward the possibility of life, including intelligent life, in the universe.”
But “possibility” is not the same as likelihood. If a planet is to be inhabited rather than merely habitable, two basic requirements must be met: the planet must first be suitable and then life must emerge on it at some stage.
What can be said about the chances of life starting up on a habitable planet? Darwin gave us a powerful explanation of how life on Earth evolved over billions of years, but he would not be drawn out on the question of how life got going in the first place. “One might as well speculate about the origin of matter,” he quipped. In spite of intensive research, scientists are still very much in the dark about the mechanism that transformed a nonliving chemical soup into a living cell. But without knowing the process that produced life, the odds of its happening can’t be estimated.
When I was a student in the 1960s, the prevailing view among scientists was that life on Earth was a freak phenomenon, the result of a sequence of chemical accidents so rare that they would be unlikely to have happened twice in the observable universe. “Man at last knows he is alone in the unfeeling immensity of the universe, out of which he has emerged only by chance,” ... Today the pendulum has swung dramatically..
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
maybe there is only one parameter
The obvious problem with that position is conceivably, that other, more advanced otherworldly civilizations might be so cosmically distant that they cannot communicate with us-- yet.
They may be bale to communicate with us, but why would they? Would it not be better for them to observe and study us before making that determination?
As for advanced technology, they may very well be here and communicating amongst themselves without our knowing about it. Imagine if we were to be able to take our technology back in time and observe older civilizations. We would be able to move about and communicate in a stealth manner that they would be unable to detect. So why would not an advanced civilization do the same?
Mathematically speaking, extra-terrestrial life is a certainty. The real question is, “in which form does it exist”? Amoebas in primordial ooze? Early development? Superior and tremendously advanced? Who knows.
It's not a joke. Matter does evolve -- Evolution of Minerals (Scientific American).
Not necessarily. 40 billion chances doesn’t necessarily mean 40 billion species with advanced technology. Even if they ALL have intelligent life we don’t know how many of them got a jump start on us and are ahead of us in the tech curve, how many are behind us, how many “screwed up” when they got to the nuclear stage. And even if some have FTL how many of them are moving in our direction. Our level of detection in the universe is still pretty scant, we’re seeing suns and planets from THOUSANDS of years ago, we don’t really know what’s happening in most of the galaxy now, or even fairly recently.
Are We Alone in the Universe?
Yep. We are. Except for the God of Israel and a few billion angels.
Even if there were advanced civilizations out there, I don’t think they’d be visiting us as frequently as UFO reports indicate.
All evidence thus far points to our being “alone.” Everything else is speculation.
But would they want to? And would we understand it? And how long would the transmissions take? Technically we’ve sent out communications (both on purpose and just a by product) but they haven’t gotten very far. And the communication methods we use now would be completely useless in communicating with us 100 years ago.
Once upon a time I hoped we were not alone, if only for the curiosity value.
Now I’m afraid there may be other planets where a majority of the global population are morons.
I claim there is no technologically capable life in the galaxy.
First, you can’t be in the center 2/3 where 95% of the stars are because every billion years or so a solar system wide cataclysm will occur.
Second, your planet needs lots of water or else the climate varies too much.
Third, you need lots of water, but not so much that there is no land or else there is no technology.
fourth, the dinosaurs had 300 million years on earth and failed at technology. Technology is really hard.
fifth, you probably need an unusual moon like ours which stabilizes our orbit (rotating dumbell is more stable than a rotating sphere).
Our moon is really large relative to the planet. It also was likely created by a very unusual collision. This is because the moon is a lot like the earth’s crust and has no iron core so it did not form by acreation. It also means our iron core is bigger than normal and the crust is thinner than normal as the core of the colliding body and earth’s core merged and the crust go blasted into orbit by the collision. This is important or else you get a small core and a thick crust like mars and eventually you get a dead planet.
Our crust is thin and the core is still active so we get outgassing and we get plate techtonics and carbon recycling.
Sixth, mars should support life as it has a good star, is in the habitable zone, in the outer 1/3 of the galaxy, is the right size, used to have a lot of surface water, and it is still dead.
Seventh, under the optimal conditions of planet earth, it still took 5 billion years for tech to blossom here.
ET will not be coming anytime soon I think.
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Now I’m afraid there may be other planets where a majority of the global population are morons.
So we'll fit right in, then.
Exactly. Look at all the things that had to be just in the right place for life to exist on this planet...the chances of this occurring randomly, are infinitesimal, at best.
In my Father’s house there are many mansions.
Life is rare on Earth, and most likely non existent everywhere else in the Solar System. Even here on Earth where life has existed for billions of years, civilization has only been around for a few thousand years and technology for a few hundred.
I love these scifi images of sleek spacecraft. But Star Trek’s Borg have it right: a box is the most efficient way to build a ship that never touches atmosphere.
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