Posted on 11/11/2013 7:57:32 PM PST by SunkenCiv
Sales growth during the fourth quarter is shaping up to be the weakest since 2008, according to predictions from Morgan Stanley.
Same-store sales, a key metric that measures sales at store locations open at least a year, are expected to grow a mere 1.6% from a year ago during the fourth quarter, Morgan Stanley estimates. Last year's holiday sales were up 3.5% from the fourth quarter of 2011.
The 1.6% figure excludes sales at troubled J.C. Penney (JCP, Fortune 500). That's because J.C. Penney is expected to offer deep discounts to try and get back on track after a disastrous drop in sales last year. As a result, J.C. Penney may not have that tough a time beating last year's low bar. And its results could skew the overall sales figures for the industry.
Why will sales be sluggish this year? The culprit appears to be weak consumer confidence. While Americans have more to spend thanks to a rising stock market, higher home values and low gas prices, they're not so willing to part with their cash.
"Concerns over future income linger and the government shenanigans have dampened confidence on the cusp of holiday shopping," Morgan Stanley analysts said.
(Excerpt) Read more at money.cnn.com ...
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Picked up my mail which had accumulated for four days. Box was crammed full including catalogs, quit counting when I reached 63. Didn’t even go through them and they all went straight into the trash. Grandkids each get four gifts: something they want-cash; something they need-new sweatshirt; something to wear-new pj’s and something to read-a new book. Adults get gift certificates for oil changes and car washes, clients get trays of homemade cookies. We quit buying stuff a couple of years ago.
This is really funny - a radio report today stated that they were expecting a GOOD holiday season, what with more seasonals being hired than in the last 5 years ...
I burst out laffing - people are going to be scraping their pennies together to pay for the first of their new jacked-up insurance premiums, AND they are going to be BIG spending?
Bogus report - but what do you expect from ABC radio news ...
At least spring for Two Buck Chuck ;)
I’ve been waiting for six years for that really “tough” holiday season. Will this finally be the one? We’ll see. Meanwhile, my family stopped gift exchanges (except for children) about four years ago.
The 1.6% figure excludes sales at troubled J.C. Penney (JCP, Fortune 500). That’s because J.C. Penney is expected to offer deep discounts to try and get back on track after a disastrous drop in sales last year. As a result, J.C. Penney may not have that tough a time beating last year’s low bar. And its results could skew the overall sales figures for the industry.
One result could skew the overall figures?
Things must be worse than even I figured.
Before we left Seattle, virtually every non-food item we purchased was at either at an estate sale or on Craigslist. It doesn’t work too well here in central KY. The poverty level is higher so EVERYBODY buys used. Believe it or not, it drastically increases the price of used merchandise to the point that it’s way too expensive, most of the time.
In Seattle, a $20 item may go for $5 or less and be pretty much as good as new. Here in KY, the same item may go for $18 or even $25 at a garage sale. Not to me, though...
Yeah the ones who will be spending are the ones in line for tennis shoes and giant tvs because they will get their insurance for free just like their Obamphones. My husband got laid off last Friday so I am a bit worried and it does not help having the “Mandate” that we have to have insurance or we will have to pay a penalty tax or whatever they call it.
This year I am not shopping at all......period. The 3 grand kids are getting gift cards and that is the total for our Christmas. I just don’t have the holiday spirit and simply don’t care. Family stuff.
Lets analyze this statement
1. rising stock market-this may be true but it is rigged and primed to fall. Many people were decimated with the last drop and are no longer part of the stock market. Also, writers such as this, continue to act like the stock market and economy are the same thing. Thet are not!
2. higher home values-not much good if you are still tens of thousands underwater like millions still are. Also, the home is not a piggybank as many found ot the last go around.
3. low gas prices-$2.93 is the cheapest I have seen and that is NOT low gas prices. It may be lower but since many are now realizing the thousands of dollars more they are going to be speding next year on health care, not enogh to matter.
All I got for Christmas is this lousy Obamacare card and a 20k deductible—neither of which I can afford.
But all designed to bankrupt America.
Same here. My Mom passed away last month and it won't be the same for me. I don't even want to be at any family gathering. I'll get my husband a gift and that'll be IT for my buying.
That is what pisses me off. Here we have a great deep deep red state and it is worse off then extremely liberal Seattle. Something is not right. Red states are supposed to be the cream of the top. How can we sell our message if red states are full of poverty. No wonder why we are losing elections right and left. We need to fix our red states ASAP!
Last Christmas I bought my sister-in-law and her husband prepper gifts and they didn’t make it here for Christmas - so, I don’t have to buy anything, just give them last year’s gifts they didn’t get.
Ah the Holiday spirit. I remember it well as a child. Meeting friends for sledding at the YMCA’s snow hill, going door to door caroling on the way home and then heading in to sip hot cocoa and bake cookies with mom. Going as a family to pick out the tree (mom always wanted the “fullest” looking one) and decorations had to include tinsel and handmade chain link “garland” along with the wreathes we all made by twisting tissue paper all around wire hangers, spray painting it, and then gluing on little decorations. The school Christmas Program we put on for the parents the last night before break. And of course the anticipation of Santa. I remember getting Babe cologne, a bunch of Bonne Belle lip smackers, Jean Nate’ bath splash, Body on Tap, Gee your hair smells terrific, (I was a little shampoo freak lol)the albums Grease and Saturday Night Fever, Jordache and Calvin Klein jeans (I think that was Junior high tho) but yeah it’s such a magical time when you are a child. As an adult it’s more stress than anything:(
Well, let’s see... The Idiot made sure health care insurance for millions will terminate December 31st. Who in their right mind expects anything but a hold on discretionary spending?
What is retail?
“At least spring for Two Buck Chuck ;)”
You’re a high roller my FRiend.
yeah, basically in KY where a lot more people’buy used and there’s a bigger demand for used, you are kind of dealing with a cash for clunkers problem on any in demand used items. especially’if in good condition.
i picked up a dyson dc14 for $10 because the guy was selling it for parts. i got it working - he didn’t find what the real problem was - and i gave it a thorough cleaning. one of my best finds this year.
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