Posted on 11/08/2013 12:32:27 PM PST by Kaslin
The national news media's liberal spin on Tuesday's off-year elections focused on the Republican loss in Virginia, insisting it demonstrated the GOP was still on a steep, downward slide.
But the political reality behind what happened this week tells a far different story that suggests it's the Democrats who are in trouble, from the state house to the Obama White House.
Yes, Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli lost the Virginia governor's race, but far more narrowly than anyone expected, or that the polls had shown. Despite the fact that he was vastly outspent by Bill and Hillary Clinton's shadowy, big money man, Terry McAuliffe, and was unable to get his message out on television.
To be sure, Cuccinelli had his own political weaknesses. He lost the women's vote badly as a result of a barrage of TV ads that focused entirely on abortion, birth control and other women's issues. He lost the state's Hispanic vote big time, because they saw him as virulently anti-immigration reform.
For much if not most of the election cycle, his message on jobs and tax cuts to spur the economy was drowned out by McAuliffe's nonstop TV ads portraying Cuccinelli as anti-women and "too extreme for Virginia."
Throw in the politically-damaging gift-giving scandal that destroyed Republican Bob McDonnell's governorship, and that slightly tarnished Cuccinelli and the GOP, too, and the Democrats were salivating over their hopes for a landslide victory.
In the end, however, McAuliffe narrowly won by less than a 2.5 percentage point margin. A CNN computer-drawn color map of the voter breakdown showed the state in a sea of GOP red, with the exception of just a few deep blue urban centers, including heavily-populated Fairfax County, that lies just outside of Washington, D.C.
McAuliffe had squeaked out a win with the support of largely nonwhite and unmarried voters, but, notably, he had badly lost white and married voters to Cuccinelli.
Indeed, Democrats have lost white voters by 20 or more percentage points in the last four gubernatorial or presidential elections, according to election day exit polls.
What had happened to tighten a race that polls showed to be lopsided in McAuliffe's favor, though tightening in the final days of the campaign?
The big factor was certainly Obamacare that exploded in the final weeks of the race into a political disaster that dominated the news and clearly hurt McAuliffe who was one of its biggest boosters.
Insurance companies from New York to Florida were sending out notices canceling health care policies that did not meet benefit standards set by Obama's rigidly-drawn health care law. Insurance policy premiums were shooting up to unaffordable levels. The administration's online sign-up system turned into a bungled, unworkable mess that became the laughing stock of the country.
Cuccinelli and his campaign strategists were desperately looking for a way to counter McAuliffe's vaunted lead and close the gap. Then, in the last few weeks, he switched his core election message into a referendum on Obamacare and the tide began to turn.
Voters needed some way to show their angry opposition to Obamacare and send a message to Washington. For a lot of voters, Cuccinelli's candidacy was the best vehicle to do that. Why, even the state's Senate Democratic Leader Richard Saslaw conceded that Obama's trouble-plagued health care law has "upset a lot of people."
Meantime, Republican state senator Mark Obenshain won the attorney general's race by just a handful of votes, a contest that is headed to a recount. And the House of Delegates remains firmly in GOP hands, with the Senate politically divided 50-50, as it was before.
But in overwhelmingly liberal New Jersey, it has turned out to be a far different story where the Republicans have driven deep into Democratic territory -- shaking Obama's party to the rafters.
Gov. Chris Christie cruised to a second term, beating his Democratic opponent, state Sen. Barbara Buono, by more than 20 percentage points.
The national news media chooses to describe the New Jersey governor, a former U.S. prosecutor who put dozens of public officials -- Republicans and Democrats -- behind bars, as a pragmatic politician open to compromise.
But he is also very conservative on key economic, law enforcement and public spending issues. He has cut taxes and the budget, battled with state employee unions over their excessive benefits, and brought his state back from the brink of the Great Recession.
Christie's re-election showed that these bedrock issues do not appeal to just to the GOP's right wing, but to many swing Democrats, too. He won the support of 32 percent of Democrats on Tuesday, up from 24 percent in 2009.
But his political appeal is much wider than even that. Exit polls on Tuesday showed him winning 57 percent of women voters, up from 12 percent last time. He also won 21 percent of black voters, up from 12 percent, and an astonishing 51 percent of Hispanic voters, up from 19 points.
Despite what the Washington news media want you to think, Christie is not at war with his national party, nor with its social conservative base. He made it clear throughout his campaign that he was right to life on abortion and was opposed to same-sex marriage. He ran flat out on cutting taxes further to boost economic growth and create jobs, and cutting government spending, to boot.
No wonder Democratic leaders fear him and even now are plotting a major political assault on his governorship in anticipation of a bid for the White House in 2016.
These off-year elections tend to be over-analyzed, and sometimes their significance can be exaggerated. In this case, the parties split the difference in the governor races, but New Jersey far outweighs what happened in Virginia.
Christie, a shrewd and cunning operator, showed that government can work when you roll up your sleeves and are willing to step into the arena and fight for what you want.
Unfortunately, Cuccinelli learned a little too late that if he had made Obamacare a referendum in his campaign, he probably would have won.
How about “elections have consequences” . . . election fraud has none.
NOTHING was learned, nothing WILL be learned. Nothing CAN BE learned. Certainly not by Republicans. it’s not about learning. It’s about preserving the status quo. Republicans would rather lose and be the also-rans as long as their position as losers and also-rans is preserved.
“He lost the state’s Hispanic vote big time, because they saw him as virulently anti-immigration reform. “
The Hispanic I know, who spent 15 years getting his green card, does not want an influx of people to compete with him for a job. How many Hispanics are really in favor of unlimited immigration? I think we’re being sold a line of good here.
Biggest lessons I learned:
1) Bill DeBlasio’s landslide heralds a shift in our blue urban areas from electing Liberal Democrats to electing flat-out Communists. He will not be the last. Or the worst.
2) McAuliffe’s margin of victory was achieved almost entirely by the Julias. It is working so well for Dems there will be no end to this War On Women crap.
3) Ballot measures raising the Minimum Wage passed by wide margins. There is a risk that Leftists embracing such Economic Populism could sweep to power amongst a highly frustrated, yet economically illiterate population.
Other accounts say this election was a referendum on Obamacare.
Plus he lost favor by being in favor of the government shutdown.
Despite what the Washington news media want you to think, Christie is not at war with his national party, nor with its social conservative base. He made it clear throughout his campaign that he was right to life on abortion and was opposed to same-sex marriage. He ran flat out on cutting taxes further to boost economic growth and create jobs, and cutting government spending, to boot.
So now Donald Lambro is doing comedy?
We lost in Virginia, but won in New Jersey. Spinning is in vogue, but those are the facts!
He lost the women's vote because he couldn't out-promise the Democrat candidate when it came to how many goodies he would promise women to buy their votes, particularly young single women. I wouldn't term that a weakness as much as I would term it an unfair advantage to the Democrats. The press doesn't call them on it. They are in lock step with the Democrats.
If the press didn't like it, and it was Republican, they would set the record straight. With the Democrats it's.., "YEP, JUST WHAT HE SAID!"
As for the Hispanic vote, once again, this commentary is off base. Immigration reform is not the be-all end-all issue for Hispanics that the media and the GOPe think it is.
We don't appeal to the Christian values of Hispanics. We don't approach them on kitchen table issues. We take a complete pass on that, and then focus on something that is a concern for Hispanics, but is by no means the major concern they have.
How about addressing 29.3% interest rates on credit card debt? Think that isn't important to people.
We fail, when it comes to communicating with minorities. They want to dialogue, and our guys want to cow tau to them, when it isn't necessary.
The GOPe has completely lost it's mind. People of all races want a job. They want low crime. They want their kids taught in a decent crime free school. They want their home safe. They want their neighborhood to be safe. When's the last time you heard a Republican touching on any of this? It isn't rocket science folks. It's very simple.
Yeah, that stuck out in the article.
The fact is that Americans who are Hispanic are significantly against immigration reform. They vote. Illegal alien Hispanics do not (legally) vote.
>He lost the women’s vote badly
And by 14 points. All he needed was to only lose 11 points to women and he would have easily gained 3 points if he did not pull an Akin. No future GOP candidate will ever win again if they so much as hint that rape victims will be forced to carry a rapists child.
Fire this guy.
If Republicans don’t know how to articulate the defense of an unborn baby, they shouldn’t win and shouldn’t get a cent.
They especially should not be afraid to stand up for an unborn baby and allow it to be murdered just because it was conceived in violence. Its not the babies fault. Punish the rapist, don’t kill the baby.
“NOTHING was learned, nothing WILL be learned.”
In a political contest the side that controls the issues normally wins. In the late 1960’s through the 1970’s the Republicans owned the “law and order” issue and used it with great success. In the 1980’s the Republicans owned the lower taxes and military strength issues.
Today the Republicans do not own any issue. It is difficult to understand what the party stands for or against. The Democrats have carefully positioned themselves as for women, for minorities, for government paid healthcare, for open immigration, for the welfare state.
Karl Rove pontificates about the Tea Party daily on Fox. Mr. Rove has yet to come up with anything to counter the “war on women”.
Upon reflection, not only was a good, moral, brave man defeated narrowly, we, the citizens of VA who care so much for our state lost a huge opportunity for tax relief, economic growth, energy independence and an overall “functioning for the people” kind of govt with the House being conservative also.
Instead, we will have grid lock, nastiness and a do nothing creep for a gov...a real pity.
Blah, blah, blah, blah, bla, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah
Cuch was supposedly down by 10 points on Oct. 1st right before the shutdown. Yet he lost by just 2.5%.
Exit polls n VA show that people blamed Obama for the shutdown more than they blamed the Republicans.
I don't think your comment is right.
That’s why I say what I say about the GOP-e. We have a two party system. The GOP-e by all reckoning and observation believes it will remain one of those two parties even if it loses the majority of elections, and if you believe that 2 - 1 = 1, then that is mathematics that is hard to argue with. They apparently believe they enhance the security of their position by losing, by being the perpetual losers.
When you say “normal” I understand just what you’re saying; but now that we have nearly half the country reliably impoverished and seeking help from somewhere to improve their chances at survival, they see, over and over and over, even the worst criminals protected by the current government , there is in all reality a diminishing choice for so many of them that they cannot vote otherwise. It’s damnable, it’s malignantly anti-freedom, but freedom has become this obscure ideal that people aren’t going even skip a meal over, never mind fight or work or sacrifice for.
The exits have been slowly cut off, but it’s happening with increasing speed now.
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