Yeah I’ve noticed that the primary season FR election experts have come oozing out of their holes to cast doubts on conservatives.
Yup, usually a repeating cast of *characters*.
This is ridiculous. All I try to do is find a logical explanation for the numbers being reported. Many times in the past I, too, have disregarded polling and other news outlets calling BS, only to realize they were accurate when the final results came in. So I made it a quest to find out where these votes came from, county by county. I did one for Ohio awhile back.
Here is the Virginia Talking Points Excel Spreadsheet
It has all the data in VA General & Gov Elections going back to 2004 and is arranged based on Population of the 134 Independent City and County reporting ares.
Columns AE-AI highlighted in Yellow are the prediction columns for today. To the right of that, in Columns AJ-AS, I record the total number of votes in each area for 2004/08/12 and 05/09 repectively, and the number of votes the Republican candidate received in 04/08/12 and 05/09 respectively.
I look at the % of the vote Kilgore/McDonnell got to Bush/McCain, look at Romney’s numbers and try to base a percentage on that. In addition I look at the county voter population trends and whether it has increased or decreased, compare to current pollings and try to determine a projected turnout. If I’m really unsure, I’ll look at the Demographics.
I started from the bottom and worked my way up, but only made it through the first 20 or so municipalities.
I’m not here to influence anyone. I’m here to report, and for those watching the Election returns, to give a target number base for those interested. If Cuccinelli beats these numbers, that’s good. If not, then that’s not good.
For VA FReepers Voters, find your county or independent city on the list and if you want, try to make an accurate guess of where the numbers will be.
And it's not even primary season. Go figger...