Posted on 10/30/2013 9:23:39 AM PDT by Maelstorm
Two new polls sure to shake up the Virginia gubernatorial race suggest that longshot Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli is mounting a last minute comeback, prompting front-runner Terry McAuliffe to bring in a big gun to keep his hopes alive: the original Comeback Kid, former President Clinton.
A new Wenzel Strategies survey of likely voters suggests a 1-point race, with McAuliffe at 41 percent and Cuccinelli at 40 percent. Other polls have given McAuliffe a double digit lead.
But Wenzel echos a new Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday showing McAuliffes lead shrinking to just 4 points.
Whats key about the Wenzel poll is that it built a turnout model based on how Virginia actually votes, weighting the sample at 28 percent Democrats, 26 percent Republicans and 46 percent independents. This reflects the swing-state tradition of Virginia that has lately leaned toward Republicans in statewide, non-presidential years, but has tilted to the Democrats in recent presidential elections, they said.
This reflects a slight tightening of the race, added Wenzel.
The pollsters suggested that Cuccinelli's assault on the unpopular Obamacare is helping his case to Virginians. McAuliffe, who has embraced Obamacare, is spending the week campaigning with his mentor, Clinton, in a bid to get his side excited and show up at the polls next week.
Clinton and McAuliffe have been desperately urging voters to join their bid. "Terry needs us," Clinton pleaded in an email. "No one is running for president this year and we're still a year from the midterm elections. So some people might be tempted to think this election is less important than last year's. Don't be one of those people," added Clinton.
Most polls have found that voters are turned off by the gubernatorial race and generally dont like the candidates.
The Wenzel Strategies survey shows voters are split on both McAuliffe and Cuccinelli. While 45 percent said they have a favorable opinion of McAuliffe, 46 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him. For Cuccinelli, 47 percent hold a favorable opinion, while 50 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.
Sarvis is a pro abortion, pro tax, pro open borders liberal. His goal is not the advancement of liberty but the advancement of Sarvis.
I would think that is where a Rand Paul might help. He could come in and address the lib contingent about the importance of supporting cooch over the big gov Obamacare, NSA, IRS dems. We need to start hanging this stuff in the dems. Young people especially don’t like this stuff. Make sure they know who is responsible.
Come on Armando; that is so demoralizing. Give us some hope Bro.
For the past few days; weather.com has said there is only a 10% chance of rain in VA.
Are the “likely voters” of VA aware of all this?
Maybe Cuccinelli’s own actions & words can try to “sway” libertarian voters? You ever think that might be decent strategy?
It’s always something with you paranoiacs. Oh, it’s voter fraud. Oh, it’s absentee ballots being disallowed. Oh, it’s George Soros. Oh, it’s those darned libertarians. Oh, it’s this. Oh, it’s that.
It’s never possible that the R candidate is just not running a good campaign. Nope, anything but that.
I think most of the GOP will come home on election day. I see more and more coming home every day.
BTTT!
The only reason we are in this spot is because McAuliffe has been allowed to outspend our candidate with out right lies claiming he wants to ban birth control etc which is just not true. Ken Cuccinelli even before he entered politics was a regular volunteer at women’s centers, and he when in college established one of the first groups on campus to help increase campus sexual assault awareness. Ken is prolife and pro family but he has never been a rigid ideolog which is how he is being portrayed. People are waking up. I’ve been going door to door nearly every day the past two weeks and will be volunteering this evening on the phones. What I’ve been seeing is red Virginia highly motivated to vote for Cuccinelli. McAuliffe hasn’t even fielded volunteers in our area that I have seen. He is focusing primarily on NVA and Ken has made up some group in the DC suburbs in the latest polls. Sarvis is the big unknown. How many GOP vote for him could make the difference.
Thanks!
“Unless its +7 or more, hes within the margin of theft and has no chance.”
Uhhm, I assume you’re not from VA?
Let me tell you how it is. There are a lot of good things about the Commonwealth and some not so good things. One of the good things is that our elections are relatively clean by national standards. Virginia is one of the few states and perhaps the only one that requires a SSN to vote. And they do check the voter rolls against social security records of those who have died. It’s tough to register your dog and dead grandmother to vote here.
“Is there any way we can get to Sarvis and have him bow out?”
No. If he pulls out of the race at this point I believe he has to pay a rather hefty fee. There are a lot of people in VA who self-identify as libertarian. That’s just the way it is.
“Its never possible that the R candidate is just not running a good campaign. Nope, anything but that.”
Ain’t that the truth. Cooch should have had this thing wrapped up months ago and it’s looking like if he does win, it’ll be in a squeaker.
No nice way to put it: he’s run a crappy campaign. He still might win, but if running a crappy political campaign was a crime he’d be in jail right now.
Yes it does. I still think Ras is assuming too high Dem turnout but I also think the Q poll may be assuming just a little too generous turnout for GOP. The Q poll shows that if the GOP that are going Sarvis return to Cuccinelli the race is tied. There was another poll Hampton University which shows a 6 point race but the trend is pretty clear. The overall trend on RCP is a tightening of the race and the majority of the polls internals show that Ken’s voters are casting a positive vote for him versus McAuliffe whose strength is those casting votes against Cuccinelli. That will be a problem on election day for McAuliffe.
It's also funny that McAuliffe is basing his campaign on health care for women and women's rights and he has serial perpetrator of female abuse Bill Clinton campaigning for him down there.
-— The pollsters suggested that Cuccinelli’s assault on the unpopular Obamacare is helping his case to Virginians. McAuliffe, who has embraced Obamacare -—
Beat this one issue into the ground. It’s how Brown won in MA.
-— Sarvis is a pro abortion, pro tax, pro open borders liberal. -—
How do we know he isn’t taking votes from McAuliffe?
He is. Definitely but not as many as from Cuccinelli. Libertarians are overwhelmingly male. Women are a significant majority of democrat voters. I’d say 70-30 would be the repub/demo share of Sarvis’ voters. But that’s just a guess.
Prayer. Prayer. Prayer.
Skip a meal, fast, and pray for Ken. Just one meal: put off the flesh and supplicate to the Almighty for this nation and state.
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