Posted on 10/30/2013 6:10:59 AM PDT by ScottinVA
The Virginia governor's race is going down to the wire with Democrat Terry McAuliffe clinging to a slight 45 - 41 percent likely voter lead over Republican State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, and 9 percent for Libertarian Party candidate Robert Sarvis, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to the results of an October 23 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, showing McAuliffe up 46 - 39 percent, with Sarvis at 10 percent.
Today's survey shows that if Sarvis were not in the race, McAuliffe would have 47 percent to 45 percent for Cuccinelli, too close to call.
In the three-way matchup, 4 percent of likely voters remain undecided and 7 percent of those who name a candidate say there's a "good chance" they will change their mind in the next six days.
McAuliffe leads 91 - 2 percent among Democrats, with 4 percent for Sarvis, while Cuccinelli leads 86 - 5 percent among Republicans, with 7 percent for Sarvis. Independent voters go to McAuliffe 46 - 31 percent, with 16 percent for Sarvis.
Women back the Democrat 50 - 37 percent, with 7 percent for Sarvis. Men go to Cuccinelli 45 - 39 percent with 11 percent for Sarvis.
"State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli is nipping at Terry McAuliffe's heels as the race to be Virginia's next governor enters the final week of the campaign," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "It goes without saying that turnout is the key to this race and the harshly negative tone of the campaign is the kind that often turns off voters."
"With the race this close, the final decision by the roughly one in 10 voters who are supporting Libertarian Robert Sarvis has become even more critical. Nationally, third-party candidates often lose support in the end as voters enter the voting booth and back someone they consider the lesser of two evils. Only six in 10 Sarvis supporters say they definitely will vote for him. Almost nine in 10 McAuliffe and Cuccinelli backers are committed.
"Cuccinelli seems to be benefitting from Republicans coming home, but McAuliffe still does a little better among Democrats than Cuccinelli does among GOPers. And, McAuliffe leads among independents, perhaps the key voting group. It is difficult to see Cuccinelli winning if he can't run at least even or slightly ahead among independents. Here, too, Sarvis' voters matter greatly since the libertarian is getting 16 percent of independents, but only 9 percent overall."
Rasmussen was blown out of the water in 2012. At one time, they had credibility, but seem to be badly skewed in their sampling methodologies.
I just don’t think this group does ‘voting’
It’s miraculous that Quinnipiac has McAuliffe this low.
Good luck Scott. I am surely praying for you, Cucc, and the Great State of Virginia. It will truly b a stake thru my heart if MacAuliffe wins.
I had to laugh this morning, because the Virginian Pilot had a poll with McAwful up double digits on the breaking news. I put link to this poll in comments and almost immediately, they took the article down and replaced it with this one.
Not sure if they were afraid that showing him up double digits might actually depress the vote for McAwful or not. It wouldn’t shock me if that is why they took it down.
The good news is only 62% of Sarvis voters are definetly voting for him with 18% likely to change their mind.
Quinnipac polls always “lean” left
Quinnipiac
When is this damned election?
Good news for Virginia if the trend continues.
McAwful is a clinton operative. Count on an “October surprise” dirty trick this weekend that places Cuccinelli on the defensive going into election day.
If they were alive, then they wouldn’t be turning over in their graves.
I really think that the daily train wreck called Obamacare is becoming a big factor in this race.
I am truly sorry you live in a such a humorless world.
Keep on thinkin' the polls are wrong, Cap. That worked so well for us back in '08 and '12.
(1) There is no way that Obama and the Clintons would be campaigning there unless McAwful really needed them. The fact that they're there/coming demonstrates that McAwful's own polling shows it to be very close.
(2) If you read the article, you will find that the Libertarian candidate is NOT harming Cuccinelli that much. McAwful would still have a 2-point edge if Sarver wasn't there. Some Libertarian-supporters are really just liberal-lite - they will not support a Pro-Life, Anti-Sodomite Normalizer (my own term, which I think accurately describes our view on the issue) candidate.
You voted Cucinelli but Rasmussen count it. OK, tin hat firmly in place but these damn polls have been all over the map?
Sarver = Sarvis
Hopefully the Republicans keep “coming home” and Cuccinelli can peel off some soft independent voters that are with Sarvis.
Do you think this might be a result of the last debate? Or the fact that Ken is starting to tie McAuliffe to Obamacare.
On Fox the other night, Cucinelli said, “This is a referendum on Obamacare”.
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