Quinnipiac: Shutdown Hurt Virginia, But Not Republican In Gov Race (46%-39%-10%)

http://www.quinnipiac.edu ^ | 10/23/2013 | Quinnipiac

[Maelstorm]

While 47 percent of Virginia likely voters say the government shutdown hurt the Old Dominion "a great deal," it apparently has no impact on the governor's race, where Democrat Terry McAuliffe leads Republican Ken Cuccinelli 46 - 39 percent, with 10 percent for Libertarian Party candidate Robert Sarvis, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to the results of an October 10 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, showing McAuliffe up 47 - 39 percent, with Sarvis at 8 percent.

In today's survey, McAuliffe leads 92 - 3 percent among Democrats, with 2 percent for Sarvis, while Cuccinelli leads 81 - 6 among Republicans, with 11 percent for Sarvis. Independent voters are divided 39 - 39 percent, with 14 percent for Sarvis.

Women back the Democrat 49 - 35 percent, with 10 percent for Sarvis. Men are divided with 44 percent for Cuccinelli, 42 percent for McAuliffe and 10 percent for Sarvis.

Only 4 percent of Virginia likely voters are undecided and 7 percent say there's a "good chance" they will change their mind by Nov. 5.

The federal government shutdown hurt Virginia "a great deal," 47 percent of voters say, while 30 percent say it hurt "somewhat." The shutdown helped, 3 percent say, while 17 percent say it had "no real effect."

Voters say 45 - 35 percent that McAuliffe's position on the shutdown is closer to their own position than Cuccinelli's.

"Democrat Terry McAuliffe leads in the race to be Virginia's next governor, but the double-digit presence of Libertarian Robert Sarvis on the ballot creates a major uncertainty," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling institute.

"The big question about Sarvis is whether his voters will stick with him to the end, or wind up voting for McAuliffe or Republican State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli," Brown added.

"Generally over the past decades, especially in southern states like Virginia, Republicans win when they have strong party allegiance among their base. One reason McAuliffe is ahead is that he wins 92 percent of Democrats while Cuccinelli has only 81 percent of Republicans. If Cuccinelli can't bring more Republicans home, he is likely to be toast."

By a 58 - 36 percent margin, voters have an unfavorable opinion of this year's race for governor, with 34 percent saying "strongly unfavorable."

Voters don't think much of the candidates, either, giving McAuliffe a negative 39 - 43 percent favorability while Cuccinelli gets a negative 38 - 52 percent score. For Sarvis, 78 percent don't know enough to form an opinion.

A total of 92 percent of Virginia likely voters say honesty is "extremely important" or "very important," but they don't think either of the two leading candidates is a pillar of honesty: McAuliffe is honest and trustworthy, 40 percent of voters say, while 43 percent say he is not. Cuccinelli does no better as 43 percent say he is honest and 46 percent say he is not.

Voters split 42 - 41 percent on who would do a better job handling ethics in government.

Cuccinelli does not understand their problems, voters say 53 - 39 percent, compared to 46 percent who say McAuliffe understands while 43 percent say he does not.

Cuccinelli has the right experience to be governor, voters say 64 - 30 percent, compared to McAuliffe's 49 - 40 percent experience rating.

"In general voters think McAuliffe is better able to understand their problems and Cuccinelli has the right experience to be governor," said Brown. "They overwhelmingly cite honesty and trustworthiness as the characteristics they most want in a governor, and on that scale, the two are virtually even."

From October 15 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,085 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research.

[Maelstorm]

Just as I suspected the Rasmussen poll was crap. This race is winnable. Cuccinelli is tied with independents the key is getting GOP to the polls and making sure this week and next have the $ to continue to drive up McAuliffe's negatives. How is it ANY GOP are supporting Terry McAuliffe? Regardless its on us to get out and volunteer, donate, and work. I'm heading out again today. Campaign offices are staffed throughout the state and are easy to find. Go get signs and material. If you want to pass out things just in your community do that. Do something! The remainder of this week and next are critical.

---

About Ken

[mrs9x]

So you have 10% of folks out there who say they are going to vote Libertarian. I suspect that number to drop dramatically in the next two weeks.

This is a winnable race. Republicans need to get their base out for Cuccinelli, and Libertarians need to come home.

[Gettin Betta]

I dont think the shut-down will hurt us in the mid-terms. The polls are showing we got beat up over it, however the special election held last week in NJ yesterday was promising. Sure the D won, it is NJ after all. But they won by only 11 points over a hard core tea party candidate. This after weeks and weeks of the media bashing conservatives and the tea party. 11 points seems like a lot but is in line with the way NJ usually votes. In previous senate elections over the years the D’s have won by: 19 in 2012, 9 in 2006 and 10 in 2002. That leads me to believe that conservatives and the tea party will be strong in the coming elections, even with the biased media. I pray I am right!!!!

[Maelstorm]

Yes exactly. Plus there are still 11% that are either undecided or say they could change their vote. Cuccinelli for some reason is having some trouble getting the maximum number of GOP. I think its related to Bill Bolling. I’m going to see if I can convince Bill to do the right thing. I don’t know him well personally but I do have a direct line to send him messages.

[pgkdan]

One reason McAuliffe is ahead is that he wins 92 percent of Democrats while Cuccinelli has only 81 percent of Republicans. If Cuccinelli can't bring more Republicans home, he is likely to be toast."

Republicans are mad at the Republican Party...and for good reason! But Ken is not part of the problem and any conservative who is mad at Ken because of Boehner's cave in are barking up the wrong tree. I hope these folks come around.

[Old Retired Army Guy]

Sarvis is a stalking horse for Dermocrats.

[pgkdan]

I think its related to Bill Bolling.

McAuliffe is running an ad where Bolling blasts Cuccinelli's tax plan. That is very damaging. If Bolling has any integrity he will not let these ads continue without him saying something in support of Cuccinelli. His silence is tantamount to a McAuliffe endorsement.

[Cathy]

Save your breath on Bolling, he is enjoying watching the inter party fighting. He and his (few big donor) allies are instigating most if it. He dropped out and has been toying with endorsing Tmac. Bolling is not trustworthy.

[ZULU]

And, ONCE AGAIN, Republicans demostrate they are the party of “STUPID”, but its not limited to the leadership.

If McAullif get elected, expect it to BUOY the pretensions of Hillary CLinton to be the next Emperor of the United States.

[1010RD]

Cuccinelli does not understand their problems, voters say 53 - 39 percent, compared to 46 percent who say McAuliffe understands while 43 percent say he does not.

A lot of that is media driven, but regardless how can conservatives make the case that they understand the problems people face?

[xsmommy]

HE should have zero credibility as a republican ever again if he endorses that clinton shill. I had no feeling about him one way or the other, prior to this, but the way he handled this race and his failure to endorse cuccinelli has me disliking him intensely.

[Ann Archy]

The idea that terry the PUNK could be Governor of ANYWHERE is LAUGHABLE!!!! I thought Virginians were supposed to be so SMART!! HAHAHAHAHAHHAH...The PUNK as GOVERNOR....HAHAHAHAHHAHAHA....actually sad.

[Ann Archy]

It’s not called the STUPID PARTY for nothing!! We MUST be PURISTS,doncha know.

[Maelstorm]

I wrote him a letter anyway. He can ignore it or not.

[DownInFlames]

VA has gone blue and there is no stopping it outside of spitting the state again. A lot of government workers live off of I95 north of spotsvania.

[pgkdan]

I wrote him a letter anyway. He can ignore it or not.

Good. He needs to hear from conservative Virginians.

[kenmcg]

The RATS will win with their fraudulent vote getting while the Grand Old Party plays by the book.

[jmaroneps37]

A little better than Scotty's numbers, but now that Soros OWNS Rasmussen maybe he was just doing his maters bidding. go to fightfortomorrow.com/donate/ and help if you can. Yes Cuccinelli ran away from Ted Cruz, but he'll be a million times better than the Punk.

[ExNewsExSpook]

You are correct...after years as Lieutenant Governor, Bolling thought the nomination was his by acclamation. But Cuccinelli out-maneuvered him and won the nod. So, Bolling is content to sit on the sidelines and snipe at the GOP nominee.

His claim about Cuccinelli’s fiscal proposals blowing a $1.4 billion hole in the state budget was made in an interview with a radio station I’ve never heard of, but naturally, the Dim op-research team found it. Naturally, the MSM in the Old Dominion has never bothered to ask Bolling about McAuliffe’s budgetary proposals and their impact on the state.

If Virginia residents want to see their taxes begin to look like Maryland, put the Clinton’s favorite fund-raiser in office. Put another way: the Republican who wins the governor’s race in 2017 will have an even bigger fiscal mess that Bob McDonnell inherited from Tim Kaine.

[Theodore R.]

What about that ex-spouse of the late Elizabeth Taylor? Is he for McAuliffe too?