Any worries about us losing the House are just rat pipe dreams.
We control the governorships, and that gives us an unassailable advantage. You want to win the House, you have to start picking off governorships and state legislatures so you can redistrict to your advantage.
There are vulnerable Republican seats, of course. Gibson in New York. Ribble in Wisconsin.
But there are also vulnerable Democrats. Duckworth in Illinois, Murphy in Florida.
My House prediction? I think its either going to be Dem +2 or Rep +2. Not much movement at all. That’s just how well districted each party has made their states. Pelosi will not be getting the gavel. No precedent, the president is unpopular, and its the second midterm.
What there will be is a high turnover of incumbents. I can see up to 10 RINO GOP lawmakers losing primary battles to good guys, and there have been a few retirements in deep red states as well.
It’s all about the senate in 2014. That’s where the battle is, and we’re well positioned to win. I predict we just about flip the upper chamber.
House = +6 (maybe 2 more that are too close to call)
Senate = +2
.. I’ll be here election night.. :)
Any worries about us losing the House are just rat pipe dreams.
Don’t be so confident. The GOP isn’t being an engaged opposition party. They are running the same loser tip toe strategy from 2012. The GOP just hasn’t given voters a reason to vote FOR them.
I expect the Dems will keep the Senate and pick up a few seats in the House. The Dems are already campaigning for 2012. The GOP is not. That’s not a winning action plan for the GOP.
Historically speaking if Obama is popular and the economy good they have a good chance at about breaking even. Speaker Pelosi part 2 is a 0% chance crack pipe dream, that only happened the first time cause they won a ton of GOP leaning seats during the peak of Bush hate in 2006 and 2008 (the rest of the party ran ahead of Obama in 2008), I don’t see that repeating. They’ll need a big win with coattails in a POTUS year or the midterm of an unpopular Republican to win the House with the current lines.
IMO unless Obama is very popular, they aren’t gaining House seats at all. Midterm House gains from the President’s party, 2002, Bush was still very popular (and redistricting was an even bigger factor), 1998, Clinton was very popular in a booming economy, GOP was being blasted for impeaching him, they gained 5. 1962 the democrats gained in the Senate and only lost a couple in a House that went down to 435 from 437, Kennedy was popular. 1934 was before Presidential approval ratings but FDR was popular and the GOP hated and weak on a level never before (or since) seen.
We have more targets than them, they have few of genuine concern imo. I’d rate CA-31 (which we would have lost in 2012 if not for Cali’s new jungle primary resulting in 2 Republicans running in the general), FL-13 (tossup, maybe an edge for us if we run the widow, best district of these 4, the others lean rat) and C0-6 (Obama won but so did our targetted incumbent) and NY-19 (45.9% Romney, one of our weakest) where they are running some rich queer, as their top targets. I’m not very worried about seats Romney won. I certainly would bank on taking more than 4 of theirs.
I would be shocked if they had a net gain of any size unless Osama suddenly hits 60% approval, House Republicans approval rating doesn’t matter, if he’s at 45%, forget it, they can’t gain federally. We’re unlikely to gain a whole lot but I don’t know, 5-10. Democrats have no reason to turn out, pissed off conservatives do. Another 2010 could still happen, I would say Cruz’s rebellion makes it more likely than less.
Reid Ribble doesn’t have a challenger yet that I know of.
I’m more worried about a few Governorships, Florida especially. Some of our incumbents aren’t popular.
What do you think guys?