Posted on 10/20/2013 1:03:05 PM PDT by neverdem
The 2010 midterm election that swept Republicans into power in the U.S. House of Representatives was a mandate to put the brakes on President Obama and his agenda.
Aside from voters also hoping that Republicans would do something — anything — to boost the economy, restraining Obama was pretty much the issue of that election.
It was the second “wave” election in four years (Republicans were dumped from the majority in 2006). And it had less to do with voters finding Republicans appealing once again and more to do with putting a halt to the Democrats' overreach.
At the center of that overreach was the Affordable Care Act, or ObamaCare — which is why many of those elected to office in that cycle and re-elected last year have been adamant about repealing it, even at the cost of a government shutdown.
Or even at the cost of losing their seats, which has led to talk of a Democrat-wave election cycle. It is a possibility pushed by paid pundits as reality, but the facts do not support it.
That does not mean a wave election isn't brewing out on Main Street. In fact, early polling indicates the 2014 midterm might produce another electoral shift, but not one that shoves Republicans out of power.
First of all, the playing field of vulnerable GOP seats is too narrow for Republicans to lose their majority, barring a massive wave. (Think 1894, when 107 Democrats were swept out of the House.)
Second, major waves historically have not happened concurrent with the “six-year itch” — the election held in the sixth year of a president's tenure, in which the party holding the White House typically loses a substantial number of House and Senate seats.
And remember that, in the 1996 midterm election of the Clinton era, Republicans lost 18 incumbents but kicked the Democrats' butts in the open-seat races. The Republicans' losses were mostly “wave seats” that they unexpectedly won two years earlier, during their first sweep back into power after 40 years in the political wilderness.
Coincidentally, all of that occurred in the year of another government shutdown — that one over the funding of Medicare, which is a heck of a lot more popular with voters than ObamaCare.
Today, every member of Congress, along with the White House and President Obama, is getting battered in the polls over how they've handled the shutdown, with Republicans taking a slim lead on the voter-anger index.
Kyle Kondik, a House analyst for the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, says that if (and he stresses it's a big “if”) Republicans eventually suffer because of the shutdown, it will not be tea partyers who are hurt.
“While the Republican brand is poor, the president isn't particularly popular — his approval is only in the low to mid-40s, according to polling averages,” said Kondik. “There would have to be an incredible amount of revulsion with the Republicans to deliver the House to the Democrats.”
Plus, historically, there's basically no precedent for the president's party to capture control of the House in a midterm year. Many presidents have held the House in a midterm, but they haven't taken control of it in a midterm.
Kondik pointed to a couple of other things that could keep Republicans from making any big gains. Most significantly, the Democrat targets aren't all that great; before the GOP's historic 2010 sweep, Democrats held 31 of the 150 districts where John McCain beat Obama in 2008 — which gave Republicans a lot of low-hanging fruit to pick off.
“Now, Republicans hold only one of Obama's 150 best districts,” Kondik said. Bottom line: It's almost always better to be the “out” party in a midterm year.
Presidential parties have lost ground in the House in 35 of the 38 post-Civil War midterms, according to Kondik: “Granted, two of the exceptions were recent — Clinton gained seats in 1998, and Bush did in 2002.”
One variable to watch is retirements; it's a lot easier to win an open seat than to beat an incumbent. If Republicans in marginal districts start retiring, that will be a very good sign for Democrats.
So far, that's not really happening.
Salena Zito covers politics for Trib Total Media (412-320-7879 or szito@tribweb.com).
Fine for the GOP. What about us lovers of the Constitution?
The RINO’s completely missed the 2012 elections. They slept through it I guess.
Hopefully they will be retired to a good rest next election.
Ping
The GOP better come out swinging on jobs and means to strengthen the middle class. They should also not dig another grave with the rape nonsense.
The left controls 99.99% of the media.
No alternative will do well against that machine.
The US is a failed experiment.
The next experiment shall be better.
Good article. It suggests Republicans can retain and increase their majority in the House, plus pick up seats in the Senate, perhaps a majority.
It can only be done by replacing RINOs and Dems with TEA Party conservatives, IMO. Otherwise, Republicans will be fighting to hold on to what they have now.
Gripe or fight! The choice is yours, Republicans. Join your local Republican Party Executive Committee. Preach the Constitution and Conservative values. If they don’t like you, show up the next month with like minded FRiends Don’t give up. It may take a while but you can remove the RINOs at this local level of the Party. Once you get it going in the Right direction, you start on the local elected officials and work your way up. It was not lost overnight and will not be won back without a lot of time and work. Gripe or fight, it’s your choice!
Any worries about us losing the House are just rat pipe dreams.
We control the governorships, and that gives us an unassailable advantage. You want to win the House, you have to start picking off governorships and state legislatures so you can redistrict to your advantage.
There are vulnerable Republican seats, of course. Gibson in New York. Ribble in Wisconsin.
But there are also vulnerable Democrats. Duckworth in Illinois, Murphy in Florida.
My House prediction? I think its either going to be Dem +2 or Rep +2. Not much movement at all. That’s just how well districted each party has made their states. Pelosi will not be getting the gavel. No precedent, the president is unpopular, and its the second midterm.
What there will be is a high turnover of incumbents. I can see up to 10 RINO GOP lawmakers losing primary battles to good guys, and there have been a few retirements in deep red states as well.
It’s all about the senate in 2014. That’s where the battle is, and we’re well positioned to win. I predict we just about flip the upper chamber.
The US hasn't failed completely, at least not yet. FR would go dark if that happened. The First Amendment would be null and void.
If it does happen, there's little reason to believe there will be a "next experiment", not in our lifetimes or any forseeable future.
So we can't just act like all is lost, not as long as we see a flicker in the light of liberty.
House = +6 (maybe 2 more that are too close to call)
Senate = +2
.. I’ll be here election night.. :)
I really hope we can do better than 2 senate seats in a second midterm.
Any worries about us losing the House are just rat pipe dreams.
Don’t be so confident. The GOP isn’t being an engaged opposition party. They are running the same loser tip toe strategy from 2012. The GOP just hasn’t given voters a reason to vote FOR them.
I expect the Dems will keep the Senate and pick up a few seats in the House. The Dems are already campaigning for 2012. The GOP is not. That’s not a winning action plan for the GOP.
My question ‘zackly.
It’s still early, and also factor in the failure that is Obamacare. How will an Obamacare meltdown (which I’m predicting based on this catastrophic rollout) affect the election?
This could easily be enough to throw Hagan, Pryor, and Landrieu out.
We’ve also had 3 fall into our laps in Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. We only need 6, and there are other races beyond those like Iowa and Michigan. In the last poll for Michigan, our candidate is running 1 point behind! For Michigan, that’s pretty good, and our candidate has high name ID. Perhaps the Detroit exodus has drained the rat base some.
It’s going to suck for the GOPe, though.
What exactly does a majority GOP in the Senate get us? Do you believe the Senate GOP would suddenly become an engaged opposition party? Doubtful. They are rotten to the core and will continue to undermine conservatives. Unfortunately, I see more of the same. The kenyan feels free to continue destroying the constition and the GOP isn’t interested in engaging him.
Well, let that motivate you to remove Mitch, Linda, Thad, and Lamar. 4 leadership creeps who are in for the fight of their lives.
Thank you.
All of the rats running for re-election in 2014 voted for Obamacare. Most of them voted for gun grabbing last April. While Pryor of Arkansas didn't vote for more gun grabbing in April, this WaPo story shows that he'll vote against the Second Amendment if it's needed.
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