Posted on 10/13/2013 7:12:05 PM PDT by tsowellfan
The dance we are watching this weekend is a very important moment in modern American history with big implications for how the executive and the legislative branches interact in the future.
The House Republicans have staked out a position that they can use their constitutional power of the purse to force the President to negotiate over key issues.
President Obama and Senate Democratic Leader Reid believe they can break the House Republicans and force them to reopen the government and pass a debt ceiling hike with no negotiations and no conditions.
Senate Republicans are split between a majority who want any deal that will end the pain and a militant minority who accept the conflict and pain as the price of forcing very large changes.
Obscured to some extent by the focus on the partial government shutdown and the anxiety over the debt ceiling is the continuing failure of Obamacare and the endless stories about websites failing and people discovering higher rather than lower prices.
What is increasingly clear is that President Obama and Senator Reid have adopted a calculated strategy of trying to isolate and break the morale of the House Republican leadership.
The President is faced with the danger that the conservative Republicans will learn how to use the power of the purse to design a plan for the next three years that will force concession after concession from him.
He has decided on a bold and very risky strategy of refusing to negotiate as long as the House attempts to use its power of the purse to force concessions.
The Democrats have adopted harsh language to describe House Republicans as terrorists wearing body bombs, hostage takers, and even traitors. The mainstream media has enthusiastically picked up all insults and repeated them endlessly.
The intensity of this vilification indicates the Democrats’ strategic desire to break the House Republicans.
Historically there have been 17 government shutdowns since 1976. All were settled. All were part of the American system of constitutional government when the legislative and executive branches are in conflict. This is the eighteenth shutdown but the level of hostility and vicious language is far greater than any earlier shutdown.
Similarly, debt ceilings have been negotiated with various amendments beginning in 1953 under President Eisenhower. For 60 years, Presidents have accepted that the constitutional give-and-take requires negotiating over debt ceilings.
President Obama is trying a very daring expansion of presidential power effectively taking away from the House its constitutional prerogatives and demanding it give him what he wants on his terms with no amendments and no conditions.
This is not a personality defect. This is a cold, calculated strategy.
If the House Republicans hang on and actually get concessions they will have set the stage for three more years of forced concessions.
If President Obama hangs on and coerces a clean continuing resolution and a clean debt ceiling hike he will have set the stage for three years of presidential dominance.
It was an indication of the President’s determination that after his Secretary of the Treasury warned that the financial world would collapse next week if we didn’t raise the debt ceiling, he rejected a six week clean increase of the debt ceiling because it did not meet his requirements.
It will be interesting to see if he accepts concessions on anything or holds out on everything through the weekend.
A lot is at stake.
They are DICTATORS!! WE will dig in . Anyone who falters will be politically removed. THIS IS WAR. Unite and fight.
President Obama and Senate Democratic Leader Reid believe they can break the House Republicans and force them to reopen the government and pass a debt ceiling hike with no negotiations and no conditions.
The scarey part to me is that the Democrats don’t seem to actually care what happens to this country. They are strictly a politically motivated group trying for total power. That is really a scarey thought!
Unfortunately, the backstop to that action is really not the Republicans as too many succumb to the media’s idea of what they should do. Yes, I am talking about those Republicans that denigrate their own and want some Media love.
There is little chance that the Republicans can ever regain the strength of their party unfortunately. This means that we are doomed (because of these liberal Republicans) to Socialism regardless of their actions. It just means that we will be slightly less Socialist than the Soviets.
Where Newt’s ego is not involved, he can see things clearly.
Interesting analysis by Newt Gingrich.
“If President Obama hangs on and coerces a clean continuing resolution and a clean debt ceiling hike he will have set the stage for three years of presidential dominance.
It was an indication of the President’s determination that after his Secretary of the Treasury warned that the financial world would collapse next week if we didn’t raise the debt ceiling, he rejected a six week clean increase of the debt ceiling because it did not meet his requirements.”
I think the Republicans are set up for a lose-lose strategy and if that’s the case, they might as well stand firm — with all his bluster, Obama can’t do anything without the House agreeing to it.
Hold the line no matter what
Interesting analysis by Newt Gingrich.
I think the Republicans are set up for a lose-lose strategy and if that’s the case, they might as well stand firm — with all his bluster, Obama can’t do anything without the House agreeing to it.
ABSOLUTELY!
Does Gingrich think we don’t know this?
“Does Gingrich think we don’t know this?”
Depends on who do you mean by “we”.
Most people who only get their news from the MSM have no clue.
"We" who?
The house leaders could certainly use his advise.
I just learned today the US doesn’t have to make another debt payment til 15 Nov. That’s gonna give Obama and the Rats another month to do a PR campaign on the GOP.
Excellent article by Newt. Passing this one along.
Good description.
GOP stepped into an ambush and getting their asses handed to them. Once the shutdown of gov occurs over CR and now DL, GOP cannot pull out without heavy costs. Obama is a street fighting Chicago politician who knows the MSM is on his side. Once the fight starts Obama will not settle unless it is a clean CR and DL. Once the GOP starts the fight they cannot give Obama that because their base would be pissed off and sit out of the 2014 election or worst start a third party. If the trapped GOP stand their ground, Obama will crash the economy on 17 Oct 2013. Chaos will hit the US public, the MSM will raise the attacks on the GOP and Tea Party, Wall Street bankers will be screaming on their phones to their GOP reps. If the GOP does not pull out they can lose the election when the independents turn against them. Either way it is a win win situation for the Dems and a lose lose situation for the GOP. The right thing to do was not start the fight over the CR and DL. The GOP should have given the Dems what they want from the start and let the bad PR on Obamacare be the political foil to hurt the Dems in 2014. As I see it now, the GOP will be lucky to hold the House and I doubt they can retake the Senate in 2014. This whole move was dumb considering the nature of the MSM and the lessons learned from the 1995/96 shutdown.
I know there are freepers that will point out the GOP still held the House in 1996 shutdown, but mood of the US is different today. 2012 should have taught the GOP unemployed Americans are in no mood for BS. They do not want more chaos, they want solutions. Avoiding the CR and DL issue allows the Obamacare program be the cause of chaos and hardship front and center to the public. That is something real to many independents and buyers remorse Dems voters. Sometimes I wonder why I bother to donate money to the GOP (stupid party)!
You are so right.
When he’s down, as in the polls, or out, as in out of power, he is clear-eyed, hard-nosed and one terrific infighter.
What’s amazing is how he goes to pieces after he’s won a few rounds.
Excellent analysis by Newt.
Get ready for the SHTF.......
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