Nate Silver: Media is overstating the magnitude of the shutdown's political impact.

538 ^ | 10/10/13 | Nate Silver

[jern]

That's been my impression of the coverage of the shutdown: The folks you see on TV are much too sure of themselves. They've been making too much of thin slices of polling and thinner historical precedents that might not apply this time around.

There's been plenty of bullshit, in other words. We really don't know all that much about how the shutdown is going to be resolved, or how the long-term political consequences are going to play out.

[madison10]

A normal shutdown would have passed without incident and would have been resolved, but the ghoul in the spite house and his friends Harry, Hagel and the Harpy, are making it uncomfortable for many. A slimy pox on their backsides.

[DManA]

Obama screwing the families of dead soldiers domes him.

[Cvengr]

He reportedly signed it this afternoon after he rejected it.

[justa-hairyape]

It is not bullshit. It is newspeak. Manufactured news. Bullshit with an attitude.

[cowboyusa]

Don't tell that to the loser Hotair posters, they are panicking over the fake NBC poll. I am never wasting my time going on that looser site again. They are the people who pushed Romney on us.

[jjsheridan5]

I hate to find myself agreeing with Nate Silver, but he is mostly right. The negative consequences will be minimal. In 95-96, the shutdown occurred at the worst possible time for Republicans: the massive victory in 94 meant that there were a disproportionate number of vulnerable freshman Republicans, many in deep blue districts; it was a presidential election, where Republicans tend to not fare as well; Bob Dole vs. Bill Clinton; the economy was doing well, which greatly helped Clinton. And, most importantly, the shutdown lacked focus -- it was a distant budget battle, not something that affected people directly. In fact, it was such an unfocused shutdown, that many people genuinely believed that the shutdown occurred because Newt had to sit at the back of the plane.

In other words, it was a perfect storm, working against the Republicans. And still ... a small number of lost house seats, and pickups in the senate. Hardly the end of the world. In fact, it is reasonable to conclude that the shutdown may have helped the Republicans since, given all of the factors working against them, they did remarkably well.

But he is not completely right. The shutdown, if it does not result in a cave, will have a dramatic effect on Republican turnout. Quite simply, if the Republicans cave, they will get slaughtered in 2014 (just as they would have if the house and Cruz had not acted). Conservatives, who make up the most volatile voting block in the Republican party, will sit home. And all of the dreams of retaking the senate will disappear. However, if the Republicans hold the line, conservatives will show up in force. Maybe not enough to win the Senate, but certainly enough to stave off disaster.

And if Democrats start becoming apathetic, which is a distinct possibility, it could easily be another 94/2010.

Assuming the Republicans don't cave, that is.

[mrsmith]

The best polling on the shutdown is at yougov.com by far.

The results are muddled...

[DManA]

We need to know who talked to him between the signing and the reneging. (perfectly good word BTW)

[Daffynition]

Everyone is getting along....everything will be ironed out momentarily.

[Ancient Wonderboy]

Mooshelle - doing what she does best.

[JPG]

The NBC poll that had the GOP taking a bath oversampled govt workers. Something like 20% of those polled were govt workers vs 8% in the general population. That would make a big difference in the results.

[Viennacon]

I would agree with your analysis.

The senate is within reach if Karl Rove’s goon squad don’t try to ruin everything just to spite us. We now have about an hour’s worth of footage of Queen Mary making sweet love to Obamacare on the senate floor.

[Crimson Elephant]

Got to admit, that is a fascinating read. Very objective and an interesting application of stats.

[InterceptPoint]

The NBC poll that had the GOP taking a bath oversampled govt workers. Something like 20% of those polled were govt workers vs 8% in the general population. That would make a big difference in the results.
+++++++++++
That would explain the results. Did you get this from the PDF? Is there an R-D-I breakdown?

[Blackirish]

I agree I didn’t buy into Nate Silvers analytics. Figured he was a hack for the NYTimes....but he’s nailed it two elections in a row. I bought in to Fox news’s and Drudges guys....but Nate has the hot hand.

[Maelstorm]

I’ve gained a lot of respect for Silver. He may be a leftist but at least he is intellectually honest which is a rare thing indeed. He did very well in his projection of the last election and though none of us wanted to see the writing on the wall even though we had been acutely aware of Romney’s weaknesses which on election day materialized proving out our concerns.

Silver is right the impact of the shutdown is being overplayed just as many political events are. The unfortunate truth is that the apolitical masses are in a chronic state of ADHD and even many who are so called experts seem to have little or no context of history even from a few months ago. This is why when a politician leaves office he becomes more popular till people have often forgotten why they hated him and I’ve even seen the opposite situation occur where people forget why they liked a certain politician.

Right now Hillary has fairly high popularity because people see her as not bad in comparison to Obama. This is an example of how shifts in context occur. Go into a TV store that only has 30 & 40 inch TVs and they seem small when at one time they were considered absolutely enormous. Pick up a cell phone from 2 years ago and they seem woefully inadequate. Leftists understand that in order to shift society their direction they must push hard to the extreme left and marginalize what were traditional values whether they be work ethic, thrift, marriage, etc.

But back to the topic. This shutdown may not have clear political impact as far as Democrats winning versus GOP but there is definitely going to be fallout in the GOP primaries over this episode and since most of the fallout is going to happen in states where Democrats have little change of gaining the political effect will not be in shear numbers of Democrats versus Republicans but a more unified more conservative GOP.

[Daffynition]

Once trailer park trash....always......

[freedom462]

it still does not address what would happen if a default does occur and enough of the US public thinks the Republicans caused it? That is a severe issue. I just don’t see how the Republican leadership can get the public on their side if a default does happen and it does collapse the economy and cause the worst Depression in our nation’s history. I don’t see how the Republicans would even be able to articulate why they are in the right -even though, of course, they would for sure be in the right - if a default happens and all the hysteria predictions about a default come true. Which is why i still find myself hoping a default does not happen and that the hysteria on the debt default is merely biased, unfounded hysteria. Otherwise, it means all the House GOP is between the ultimate rock and hard place as they could face masses of voting constituents turning on them no matter what they do. Which means they may very well not see the point in continuing the fight.

[McGavin999]

The pubbies need to take out ads showing they did all in their power to avert a default. They sent it to the senate but Obama and Reid stopped it. All they had to do to avert a default is to vote on and sign the bill the republicans sent.