Posted on 09/07/2013 12:49:49 AM PDT by naturalman1975
We have had Live Threads here at Freerepublic for the count for the last three Australian Federal elections - in 2004 which ended in conservative victory, then again in 2007 which ended in defeat for the conservatives and a Labor government, and then again in 2010 which gave us a hung Parliament, where Labor continued governing with the support of the Greens and independents. This is the live thread for 2013 - polls close and the count begins in about 10 minutes.
Polls and exit polls indicate a victory for the conservative coalition under Tony Abbott is highly likely.
A primer for those trying to understand the Australian election.
First of all, the parties. There are two 'sides' that are really important.
We have Labor - the Australian Labor Party. These are the socialists who have held government since 2007 first of all under Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, then under Prime Minister Julia Gillard, and now once again under Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. These are the people that most Freepers would not want to see re-elected. They will typically be referred to as the ALP or as Labor.
On the other side we have a coalition (commonly referred to as 'The Coalition' as it has existed for a very long time now - since 1922) of conservative parties - primarily the Liberals (Liberal Party of Australia) and the Nationals (National Party of Australia), but also including the Liberal National Party of Queensland (where the two have merged) and the Country Liberal Party of the Northern Territory (result of an earlier merger back when the Nationals were the Country Party). The Liberal Party is the largest and its leader, Tony Abbott is the Leader of the Opposition. He was a Minister in the last coalition government (1996-2007) under Prime Minister John Howard. If the election goes the way we hope, he will become the next Prime Minister of Australia following this election. You may see this group referred to as the Coalition, or by any of the party names or initials - LP, NP, LNP, etc. From the perspective of most conservatives, a vote for the Liberals is as good as a vote for the Nationals and vice versa - they only rarely run against each other.
Australia's political system is largely based on that of the United Kingdom, with some elements adopted from the system of the United States. We have a Parliament with two Houses - a House of Representatives and a Senate - that are roughly similar to the US Congress, with the House of Representatives consisting of Members elected to represent local constituencies roughly based on equal population, while the Senate has an equal number of Senators representing each state (two 'Territories' of Australia also have a smaller number of Senators). What matters today is the election of the House of Representatives - the Senate is important, but it doesn't determine who holds government and the complicated voting system used there means we won't know its make up for some time.
So let's look at the House of Representatives.
There are 150 seats in the House of Representatives. To win government in your own right, a party (or coalition) needs 76 seats. So as the count progresses, that's the number we are looking for - 76 confirmed seats out of 150. Americans may find it helpful to consider this as somewhat equivalent to getting 270 Electoral College votes in your system - the magic number where you have won. Getting more is nice, but that's the bottom line.
So when people post counts, look for a 76 minimum in the Coalition grouping or a combined total of 76 in the Liberal/National/Liberal National/Country Liberal columns (more often you will see the former).
There are a host of minor parties - some of which are potentially relevant. First of all, there are the Greens. The Greens currently have one Member of Parliament, and they could well retain that - they will support Labor if it comes down to it, their support is part of the reason we've had a Labor government for the last three years (nobody got a majority last time, and the Greens helped Labor across the line). There are also a number of minor parties which currently do not have any seats (except on a technicality - I will get to that in a moment) but where it is possible (though not necessarily at all likely) they could win some today and become relevant. These are:
The tecnhicality I just mentioned, Katter's Australian Party - lead by Bob Katter. Katter was elected to Parliament in 1993 as a National, but turned independent in 2001, and has now started his own party. He is quite likely to be returned, and it's not impossible some of his other people might be elected. If necessary, KAP members would almost certainly support the Coalition - so if the election is close (much closer than is expected), KAP can provisionally be counted in our numbers as well - but they would certainly want commitments to some policies.
Palmer United Party - a brand new party, started by Clive Palmer, an extremely wealthy Australian miner who is currently planning on building both a replica of the Titanic and his own version of Jurassic Park (full of animatronic dinosaurs). He used to be a member of the Nationals and then the Liberal Nationals, but had enough disagreements with them to start his own party. Again, it's not impossible (though it is unlikely) they could become relevant today - but again, if it came down to it, the PUP would almost certainly support the coalition.
Family First - a generally conservative party (except on a few welfare and 'humanitarian' issues) with a strong Christian base. They've held representation in our Senate before, but never in the lower house (which is what I've been talking about here). It isn't impossible they could, but again is unlikely - but again, in a close election, they would probably support the coalition.
There are lots of really minor parties, none of which are likely to have any hope of being relevant at all. In the unlikely event they become relevant during the count, I'll explain them then. There could also be some relevant independents.
Short version - we want 76+ votes for the Liberal/National coalition. If we come in just under than number things get a bit more complicated, but may be salvageable.
Correction-they have 1.
Yes, you are correct, it is 1.
The thing is that a lot of disaffected Labor voters drift over to the Greens which when preferences are counted still end up as Labor votes. The Greens will probably still only get 10 -12% of the vote though. Labor’s Primary vote is pathetic but looks far better on the two party preferred basis. As the Bob Brown affect dies down I can see the Greens shifting back to the middle a bit in the future and becoming, for Labor, like the Nationals are for the Libs.
It appears the Greens took the worse losses.
(Former) Senator Barnaby Joyce (Nationals) has been elected Member for New England, and therefore may be about to become Deputy Prime Minister.
I like Barnaby - he has good instincts although he may not always express them well!
What policies are going to change?
Rumours that Kevin Rudd is soon to deliver his concession speech.
And our loser voters complain it’s to hard to get an ID!
52% of the vote counted
52.8-47.2 Coalition/Labor
ABC Prediction
ALP 59
Coalition 87
Greens 1
Others 3
The biggest thing is the Conservative view of the economy - less wastage, less spending - also the Carbon Tax will get the boot. The borders will be better secured. The “buyback” of water resources will be slowed dramatically as Abbott does not believe in Global warming.
What we do not know yet is what labour reforms Abbott will want to push through. Even though he is very conservative he is a good Catholic as well so I expect a balanced approach in this area.
Labor were pushing the gay agenda (even though it’s basically a states issue). This will stop under an Abbott government. Abbott is very pro-life but he is also pragmatic it will be interesting to see what he can do in that area!
Great! Thanks.
New Foreign Minister (presumptive) is asked whether Australia would support US military action in Syria.
“Our natural inclination is to support our allies, but there must be a full assessment of any evidence.”
Australia currently has the Presidency of the United Nations Security Council.
Live thread here
Current media prediction has the Coalition winning 87 seats.
He can and will do nothing. Abortion is a state matter and would be political death if the Coalition tried to change it.
Listening to Labor give it’s reasons for it’s loss, they sound exactly like the Democrat Party, never has to do with their policies.
It’s neat how the Westminster system countries name their seats instead of having numbered districts.
Aussies do it differently than the UK and Canada who base the names off geography. Aussie ones are named after famous people.
Yes of course but each Prime Minister has an effect on tone and attitude!
Yes, one of the history units I teach my students involves studying who these people were.
Some are still named after places rather than people, but not many. Geographic names cause problems where borders change (for example, the Division of Kooyong, which is one of Australia's most illustrious in terms of its history (it was held by Prime Minister Sir Robert Menzies for 32 years, and then went to Andrew Peacock who was Leader of the Opposition, held it for another 28) no longer contains the actual suburb of Kooyong.)
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