Posted on 09/07/2013 12:49:49 AM PDT by naturalman1975
We have had Live Threads here at Freerepublic for the count for the last three Australian Federal elections - in 2004 which ended in conservative victory, then again in 2007 which ended in defeat for the conservatives and a Labor government, and then again in 2010 which gave us a hung Parliament, where Labor continued governing with the support of the Greens and independents. This is the live thread for 2013 - polls close and the count begins in about 10 minutes.
Polls and exit polls indicate a victory for the conservative coalition under Tony Abbott is highly likely.
A primer for those trying to understand the Australian election.
First of all, the parties. There are two 'sides' that are really important.
We have Labor - the Australian Labor Party. These are the socialists who have held government since 2007 first of all under Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, then under Prime Minister Julia Gillard, and now once again under Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. These are the people that most Freepers would not want to see re-elected. They will typically be referred to as the ALP or as Labor.
On the other side we have a coalition (commonly referred to as 'The Coalition' as it has existed for a very long time now - since 1922) of conservative parties - primarily the Liberals (Liberal Party of Australia) and the Nationals (National Party of Australia), but also including the Liberal National Party of Queensland (where the two have merged) and the Country Liberal Party of the Northern Territory (result of an earlier merger back when the Nationals were the Country Party). The Liberal Party is the largest and its leader, Tony Abbott is the Leader of the Opposition. He was a Minister in the last coalition government (1996-2007) under Prime Minister John Howard. If the election goes the way we hope, he will become the next Prime Minister of Australia following this election. You may see this group referred to as the Coalition, or by any of the party names or initials - LP, NP, LNP, etc. From the perspective of most conservatives, a vote for the Liberals is as good as a vote for the Nationals and vice versa - they only rarely run against each other.
Australia's political system is largely based on that of the United Kingdom, with some elements adopted from the system of the United States. We have a Parliament with two Houses - a House of Representatives and a Senate - that are roughly similar to the US Congress, with the House of Representatives consisting of Members elected to represent local constituencies roughly based on equal population, while the Senate has an equal number of Senators representing each state (two 'Territories' of Australia also have a smaller number of Senators). What matters today is the election of the House of Representatives - the Senate is important, but it doesn't determine who holds government and the complicated voting system used there means we won't know its make up for some time.
So let's look at the House of Representatives.
There are 150 seats in the House of Representatives. To win government in your own right, a party (or coalition) needs 76 seats. So as the count progresses, that's the number we are looking for - 76 confirmed seats out of 150. Americans may find it helpful to consider this as somewhat equivalent to getting 270 Electoral College votes in your system - the magic number where you have won. Getting more is nice, but that's the bottom line.
So when people post counts, look for a 76 minimum in the Coalition grouping or a combined total of 76 in the Liberal/National/Liberal National/Country Liberal columns (more often you will see the former).
There are a host of minor parties - some of which are potentially relevant. First of all, there are the Greens. The Greens currently have one Member of Parliament, and they could well retain that - they will support Labor if it comes down to it, their support is part of the reason we've had a Labor government for the last three years (nobody got a majority last time, and the Greens helped Labor across the line). There are also a number of minor parties which currently do not have any seats (except on a technicality - I will get to that in a moment) but where it is possible (though not necessarily at all likely) they could win some today and become relevant. These are:
The tecnhicality I just mentioned, Katter's Australian Party - lead by Bob Katter. Katter was elected to Parliament in 1993 as a National, but turned independent in 2001, and has now started his own party. He is quite likely to be returned, and it's not impossible some of his other people might be elected. If necessary, KAP members would almost certainly support the Coalition - so if the election is close (much closer than is expected), KAP can provisionally be counted in our numbers as well - but they would certainly want commitments to some policies.
Palmer United Party - a brand new party, started by Clive Palmer, an extremely wealthy Australian miner who is currently planning on building both a replica of the Titanic and his own version of Jurassic Park (full of animatronic dinosaurs). He used to be a member of the Nationals and then the Liberal Nationals, but had enough disagreements with them to start his own party. Again, it's not impossible (though it is unlikely) they could become relevant today - but again, if it came down to it, the PUP would almost certainly support the coalition.
Family First - a generally conservative party (except on a few welfare and 'humanitarian' issues) with a strong Christian base. They've held representation in our Senate before, but never in the lower house (which is what I've been talking about here). It isn't impossible they could, but again is unlikely - but again, in a close election, they would probably support the coalition.
There are lots of really minor parties, none of which are likely to have any hope of being relevant at all. In the unlikely event they become relevant during the count, I'll explain them then. There could also be some relevant independents.
Short version - we want 76+ votes for the Liberal/National coalition. If we come in just under than number things get a bit more complicated, but may be salvageable.
I am surprised that Kevin Rudd hasn’t made a formal public concession yet.
I’m not he is waiting for the number 76 to come up - his right really!
Do we want a Liberal to win????? What is the party we like in Australia? Do they have a Republican type party?
Yes you want Liberal to win! They are the Conservative party in AUst
The Liberal Party is Australia’s major conservative party - so, yes, we do want Liberals to win. Them and Nationals who are also conservative and operate together in coalition.
Kevin Rudd has appeared at the Gabba to address his party. Presumably this will be his concession speech.
Abbott better not entangle us in Syria or this conservative will take to the streets. Bottom line, ‘Stay Out Of Civil Wars’.
Rudd about to concede after he does his winners procession - Why would you try to look like a winner when you just had your butt handed to you.
Agreed - they are sitting on the fence for the moment - which is fine if you are actually waiting for good intel. I however would not rely on the State Dept of US for that atm nor the UN.
Mel
Tony Abbott is a racist because he wants to secure Australia’s territory from illegal immigrants.
Pure caca.......
I strongly suggest that we Americans stop calling the Dems ‘liberals.’ Based on historical precedent, the Dems are the inverse of ‘liberal.’ They are state socialists and/or collectivists, and are opposed to the liberal values on which the US was founded. They stole that term from its rightful owners more than a century ago, because the term that honestly describes what they were and are had and has strong negative connotations.
The terms ‘liberal’ and ‘progressive’ get very positive responses from focus groups of low-information voters. So when we use those terms, we’re helping the socialists/collectivists.
So call them what they are: socialists, collectivists or at least leftists.
Its looking like those early exit polls leaked out to the media may have been designed to create a worse picture than really emerged as the evening went on.
The leaks were designed to sink expectations for the Labor Psrty so they could claim some sort of victory at the end of the evening.
Kevin Rudd just said something like “we retained every seat in Queensland” and I suspect the spin machine was at work in all this.
This was a sharp defeat for Labor and Kevin Rudd couldn’t pull the chestnuts out of the fire after he was brought in to replace Julia Gillard.
Trying to type as Rudd talks. Doing my best, but do not rely on this transcript for anything.
*****
Geez, I thought we’d lost. (response to applause)
My fellow Australiams my fellow queenslandsrs, and fellow members of the great Australian Labor Party
Today we have fought the good fight as the great Australian Labor Party. Tonight is the time to unite as the great Australian Nation. Because whateverour politics may be we are first and foremost Australians. For the things that united us are greater than the things that divide us.
...
that is why this country is such a great country.
And that in this marvellows tapestry of Australia - multicultural.
We are all proud to be Australian.
A short time ago I telephoned Tony Abbott to concede defeat in these national ekections. As PM of Australia, I wish him well in the high office of PM of Australia. I, Therese, wish him (and family) well in coping with the stress of the office. And Therese and I look forward to metting him at the Lodge nest week in the same gracious way that Mr Howard met us in 2007.
I now wish to speak to the Labor Party Members...
A couple more days and we might have got there.
I know that labor hearts are heavy across the nation tonight. I accept rsponsibility. I gave it my all. But it was not enough for us to win. I am proud we are still viable despite predictions of doom.
I am also proud we appaer to have held every seat in Queensland.
I am proud that every cabinet minister has been returned at this election.
I am proud that practically all other members of our executive have been returned.
But we have lost many Labor members fromParliament and I would like to thank them for their courage and commitment.
I would like to thank the true believers of Ausyralia.
For our party and movement, we have known defeat before. But throughout out 122 yer history, we have always ALWAYS risen from defeat. To renew our party. And we’ll do it again.
Ben Chifley’s light on the hill still burns bright across Australia. It is a flame that cannot be extinguished.
So in the time of rebildng that lies ahead.... beacon of progressive politics. Audacity of hope.
A better place for all. Not just for some.
It would be unPrime Ministerial of me to say Bill Glasson eat your heart out, so I won’t.
Thanks Deputy PM, Anthony Albanese.
Rudds speech continues with him thanking lots of people.
And the unions.
Sounds to me likea speech of a man who is leaving politics. But will he say so.
“It would be unPrime Ministerial of me to say Bill Glasson eat your heart out, so I won’t.”
Well you did and yes it was but you are no longer Prime Minister. Lack of class till the last!
He will not recontest the leadership of the Labor Party.
Good I hope Labor take this to heart and realize they overeached, lied and insulted the Australian public while in power - there are still some good people in Labor - I hope they come back towards the center of political life.
Mel
Tony Abbott about to make his victory speech
Rough transcript of the new Prime Minister-Elect’s speech - do not use this for anything
My friends, thankyou so much. I can inform you that the government of Australia has changed for just the seventh time since the Second World War.
You obviously enjoyed hearing me saying it, so let me say it again the government of Australia has changed for just the seventh time in sixty years. The coalition has won 13 seats clearly with 10 seats still in play and I can inform you that the Australian Labor Party’s vote is at the lowest level in more than 100 years.
So tonight for the last time in this campaign, it is my honour to addrss the people of Australia. Mr Rudd has conceded defeat. I acknowledge his service to the people of this nation. I now look forward to forming a government that is competent and trusthworthy.
Something very significant has happened today. The people of Australia have declared that the right to govern Australia that the right to lead this country belongs to the peopel of Australia. And you will punish anyone who takes you for granted.
So my friends ina week or so, the Governor General will swear in a new government. A government that syas what it means and means what it says. A government thwt will be judget by its deeds not it words.
In three years time, the carbon tax will be gone, the boats will be stopped, the budget will be on track for a believable surplus.
I declare that Australia is back on track and is opne for business.
Today hundreds of thousands of people voted for the Liberal and National parties for the first time. We will not let you down.
A good government will govern for all people.
****
Thanks begin. Can’t list them all.
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