Posted on 09/05/2013 8:27:46 AM PDT by afraidfortherepublic
Less than a month ago, Jazz Shaw wondered whether Client #9 could be stopped. Eliot Spitzer had a 17-point lead over Scott Stringer in the New York City Democratic primary race for comptroller and presumably a clear path to a political comeback. In just three weeks, though, his nineteen-point lead over Stringer (56/37) in the Quinnipiac poll series has flipped to a 45/47 deficit a change of 21 points in the gap in nearly as many days:
The Democratic primary for New York City Comptroller is too close to call, with 47 percent of likely primary voters for Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer and 45 percent for former Gov. Eliot Spitzer, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 46 46 percent dead heat in an August 29 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University and a 56 37 percent Spitzer lead in an August 14 survey.
Its an astounding turnaround in a race that most people assumed Spitzer has sewn up in August. The collapse of Spitzers commanding lead comes out of nowhere, too; Spitzer hasnt committed any major gaffes, and his earlier scandals have been well known all along. The result is technically a virtual tie, as it falls within the margin of error, but having the kind of name recognition Spitzer has as former governor and media star and only 45% against a local politician is a very bad sign with the primary just five days away.
Quinnipiacs Maurice Carroll points out that the African-American vote is all thats keeping Spitzer viable, with a 61/32 lead over Stringer. However, thats probably a bad sign for Democrats if Spitzer wins, because the Republican nominee is an African-American conservative with a sterling resumé in the field, John Burnett, who might do better with that demographic than Spitzer in a general election. Spitzer also does better with voters under 50 and strong Democrats, but hes getting clobbered among those with weaker party affiliation.
Theres more bad news for Spitzer in voter loyalty. Almost twice as many of Spitzers voters say there is a good chance theyll switch than Stringers, 17% to 9%. Stringers voters are more likely to claim their choice as definite, too, 81% to 74%. With five days left, Spitzer has more downside and is perhaps already trailing.
What happened? Absent any particular event in the past three weeks, it may be that voters just initially identified with Spitzer because of name recognition until they got comfortable with Stringer. The novelty may have worn off, too, and with it the hipness factor of supporting a disgraced politician looking for a comeback. However, Id bet that the continuing antics of Anthony Weiner have done a lot of damage to the comeback narrative in New York City, and had voters asking themselves why theyd bother to support disgraced former officeholders at all. Weiners implosion may have taken Spitzers candidacy down with him.
He’s certainly #2 in my book. A huge steaming pile of #2!
Love Client #9
His period of disgrace was only temporary. In the democrat party, doing what he did is a badge of honor. We all predicted that he would rise within the ranks of the democrat party.
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