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AllianceBernstein : Oil prices are going to surge
Businessinsider ^ | Jun. 12, 2013 | Rob Wile

Posted on 08/27/2013 1:50:09 AM PDT by Laurent.w

As far as U.S. shale gas goes, it's pretty much living up to the talk: the newer plays are seeing strong recovery rates over large acreage, meaning gas will keep flowing.

That is not the case for shale oil.

Productivity of the newest plays to come on drillers' radars have not come close to what's been coming out of the Bakken in North Dakota and Eagle Ford in Texas.

And even for those two, he says, peak recovery rates of new wells drilled have been declining and flat, respectively.

As a result, drillers are moving on to less productive basins and lower-quality acreage.

"The prime locations have already been drilled," AllianceBernstein's Bob Brackett writes

"In order to maintain current levels of overall production, marginal conventional production must be maintained with high oil prices.

We expect marginal cost inflation will continue as well productivity declines, resulting in an oil price forecast that differs significantly from the forward curves. We forecast $96/bbl WTI for 2013, $101/bbl WTI for 2014, and longer term prices above $120/bbl and rising after 2017."

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: energy; fracking; oil; shale; wti

1 posted on 08/27/2013 1:50:10 AM PDT by Laurent.w
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To: Laurent.w
Bend Over, Grab your ankles.
HICA. (Here it comes again. . . .)
2 posted on 08/27/2013 2:01:09 AM PDT by DeaconRed (CRACKERS are dangerous, especially those of US that pack Heat. . . .)
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To: Laurent.w; DeaconRed

FYI, Honda Civic Natural Gas

3 posted on 08/27/2013 3:12:25 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (I aim to raise a million plus for Gov. Palin. What'll you do?.)
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To: Laurent.w

....because of surging demand from a roaring economy!!!!!


4 posted on 08/27/2013 3:27:37 AM PDT by wny
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To: Laurent.w

Never believe anyone that you do not know... either them directly or their reputation. obama and his overlord are pure evil... as are those that align themselves with their evil.


5 posted on 08/27/2013 4:09:51 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (FROM MY COLD, DEAD HANDS!)
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To: Laurent.w

Well all I can tell him is it used to take about 36 hours to get my oil hauled, now it’s 3 to 5 days due to all the new production. My last 3 wells I’ve installed 3 500’s instead of the normal 2 due to these delays. Our wells up north of town are coming in at 300 to 400 barrels a day. We flow back into 1000 barrel frac tanks for about 3 months before we build the battery, production around here is steadly climbing.


6 posted on 08/27/2013 4:23:48 AM PDT by Dusty Road
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To: Laurent.w

Of course oil prices and everything else will got up because the dollars pumped into the failing economy by the Feds is inflationary no matter what the bankers claim.

Markets are markets.


7 posted on 08/27/2013 5:02:24 AM PDT by urbanpovertylawcenter (the law and poverty collide in an urban setting and sparks fly)
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To: Dusty Road
We flow back into 1000 barrel frac tanks for about 3 months

Is that to get a good flow history prior to building tanks, or just a natural progression of using the infrastructure in place and not rushing to install tanks?

8 posted on 08/27/2013 5:26:25 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney

Is this article saying they expect the oil production component of fracking to relatively quickly peak and/or flatline? Or even decline?


9 posted on 08/27/2013 8:24:58 AM PDT by citizen (There is always free government cheese in the mouse trap.)
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To: citizen
The article provided their own summary.

Many people do not understand that tight formations like the shale plays of Bakken, Eagle Ford and others have a very steep production decline curve. Without a ample supply of new spots to keep producing new wells, the fields will not keep high production rates.


10 posted on 08/27/2013 8:31:51 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney

Mainly just due to the volume of return, when you have several hundred barrels of fluid coming up it can swamp a battery pretty quick. Once I’ve got one flowing good I hate to shut them in, I’ve seen them trash up with sand thats fallen back downhole.


11 posted on 08/27/2013 10:04:45 AM PDT by Dusty Road
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To: Dusty Road
Thanks

Mainly just due to the volume of return

Just because I'm an overly inquisitive engineer always desperate to understand, that means to handle the high flow rates from the initial production before the well settles down?

12 posted on 08/27/2013 10:13:57 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney
Should we get overly depressed when that happens or is there still enough to go around here in the USA ?
What is a good guess when to worry about a decline of the current oil boom here in the USA ?
Or will this help us get over the hill until other energy technologies mature ?
13 posted on 08/28/2013 8:30:04 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: American Constitutionalist
Should we get overly depressed when that happens

When what happens? That list was from the point of those items already have happened.

14 posted on 08/29/2013 5:11:34 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney
So what happens now ? Anwr Alaska ? so this oil boom is about to peter out and then we go back relying on middle east oil again ?
Is there any good news anywhere for the US in this regard ?
15 posted on 09/11/2013 5:56:29 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: American Constitutionalist

You need to recognize that most people investing in the oil market do not agree with this prediction. That is why his numbers are so different than what is trading in the futures market.


16 posted on 09/12/2013 4:35:01 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney
In other words they would not be investing in that kind of money if they knew the wells or future wells would go flat in a short time period.
They are there to make money and lots of it.

All I want to know is all the new we heard about how America in shale has more oil than all of Saudi Arabia.
I just want know that our future here in America is not as bleak as this guy is trying to fear us into.
17 posted on 09/12/2013 11:21:52 AM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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