[Las Vegas Ron]

However it was a good educated guess about it starting in an out of the way place no one ever thinks about.

Agree.

Predicting the future accurately can be based on the knowledge of history and probability of it happening again when the same mistakes are repeated.

We seem to never learn, when we point it out we're called crazy...then everyone is "surprised"

[cripplecreek]

Nobody at the time believed the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand would ever lead to WWI.

There was a certain unrest brewing there and all across Europe that was sparked to flame.