Little different dynamic there. Dewhurst wasn't an incumbent Senator, defending his position. That's a much harder hill to take.
Yes, but Dewhurst was formidable, with Cruz starting at 2% in the polls. I have no doubt Mace will start higher than that, and while Grahamnesty will have Rove backing him, there is a nationwide network of grassroots organizations that want him specifically gone. He’s a pariah.