Why Is Murder Down in São Paulo? The Answer is… [remvoing lead from gasoline]

Mother Jones ^ | August 2, 2013 | Kevin Drum

[grundle]

By now, you've all read my story about the link between the decline of leaded gasoline and the decline of violent crime, right? Here's an update from an unexpected source: the state of São Paulo in Brazil.

Obviously the United States isn't the only place that got rid of leaded gasoline, which means the United States isn't the only place that should have seen declines in violent crime. But other countries made the switch at different times, which means their declines in violent crime should also have taken place at different times. Rick Nevin has done a lot of work on crime trends outside the U.S., so after my piece appeared, I asked him for his predictions for other parts of the world. Here was one of them: "Crime will also plummet over the next 10 to 20 years in Latin America, where leaded gasoline use and air lead levels fell sharply from around 1990 through the mid-1990s." (Crime rates generally start to decline about 20 years after unleaded gasoline is introduced.)

[shibumi]

"By now, you've all read my story about the link between the decline of leaded gasoline and the decline of violent crime, right?"

Yeah.

Right.

It was all the buzz down at the methadone clinic last week.

[Fresh Wind]

Actually, the improvement in murder rates brought about by unleaded gas has been canceled out by Global Warming®...

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3050253/posts

[Carriage Hill]

“...you’ve all read my story about the link between the decline of leaded gasoline and the decline of violent crime, right?...”

GFY, leftist moron.

[Little Pig]

I’m pretty sure the Freakonomics guys touched on this before this guy did.

[Vendome]

Just so wrong with ner the doubt

[Little Pig]

Update: Wasn’t the freakonomics guys, but I did find a slashdot article from 2007 that covered the topic. I knew I had seen it long before, just couldn’t recall the source.

[Carriage Hill]

Freakonomics? I’ve never heard of that.

This?

http://www.freakonomics.com/

[Little Pig]

Yes, that’s who I was talking about. The books are interesting, though they weren’t the ones I was thinking of who had already linked leaded gas to the decline in crime. They have their own theory on why crime declined starting in the 90s.

[Sherman Logan]

Obviously the United States isn't the only place that got rid of leaded gasoline, which means the United States isn't the only place that should have seen declines in violent crime.

The murder rate declined through most of the 20th to the mid-fifties, where it hit an all-time low. It was actually highest from 1846 to 1887.

Then it began to climb again, and by around 1980 was almost double the 50's rate.

We are now just about back to the 50's rate and may possibly go lower.

Part of the decline is related to much better emergency medicine. As with military casualties, fewer of those who get shot now die.

[PghBaldy]

Less young men too - birthrate way down. When I was in 1st grade or so (late 60s early 70s), it was the highest population ever for that cohort. Young men commit a disproportionate rate of violent crime. Less young men, less violent crime.

[swampthang77]

Riiiight...

[Sherman Logan]

IOW, there were many, many changes during the period under discussion. Latching onto one of them as “the cause” of the decline is not real science.

[BwanaNdege]

Are you saying that I’m violent? ARE YOU?

Let’s step outside, bub, and settle this thing RIGHT NOW!

/sarc

[Raycpa]

I think it tracks closer to VCR ussuage.

[Conspiracy Guy]

Chicago hasn't had leaded gasoline for over 30 years and violence is almost nonexistent there. He might be on to something.

[Right Wing Assault]

No, no, no, no, no! What fools!

It was the introduction of the AMC Pacer in 1975 that began the reduction in the murder rate. Seeing this car caused major changes in the brains of anyone who saw it. People spent so much time laughing that they didn't have time to kill anyone.

Even after the car met its demise, the brain changes remained and were passed on to future generations. The affect has continued to strengthen in succeeding years.

Politicians are working behind the scenes to reintroduce the car in the form of taxis and city vehicles in Chicago, hoping to reduce the murder rate. Many of the black people in Chicago did not see the Pacer since no black person in their right mind would drive such a car in the hood. This is why the brain changes never happened in black people in large cities.

The idiots who did this research have no clue of the cause and effect process.

[rstrahan]

Lets see. The murder rate in Chicago and New Orleans is increasing. The murder rate in San Palo is decreasing. It is just as easy to make the assumption that the violent-prone individuals move from San Palo.

Both assumptions are BS and an example of taking an effect and attributing a non-linkable cause to it just to write a story. More BS “journalism”.

[Conspiracy Guy]

Pure BS for sure. Leaded gasoline indeed.

[InterceptPoint]

IOW, there were many, many changes during the period under discussion. Latching onto one of them as “the cause” of the decline is not real science.
++++++++++++++++
The phrase that’s most appropriate to your point:

“Correlation is not causation.”

A basic and important scientific principle IMHO.