Posted on 07/16/2013 7:46:55 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Republicans might be close to winning control of the Senate after next year's elections, according to New York Times statistician Nate Silver.
Writing in his "FiveThirtyEight" blog on Monday, Silver said this weekend's announcement by former Montana Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer that he would not run for the Senate "represents the latest in a series of favorable developments for Republicans as they seek control of the chamber."
The GOP, which holds 46 seats in the Senate, likely will lose New Jersey's special election in October to replace the late Sen. Frank Lautenberg, according to Silver. The loss will leave Republicans with 45 seats, meaning they will need six more to control 51 seats and overcome Vice President Joe Biden's tiebreaking vote.
But, Silver stressed, Montana — along with West Virginia and South Dakota, two other red states where an incumbent Democrat has retired and the party has not identified a strong candidate to replace them — "gives Republicans a running start."
"Republicans could then win three more seats from among red states like Louisiana and Arkansas, where vulnerable Democratic incumbents are on the ballot, or they could take aim at two purple states, Iowa and Michigan, where Democrats have retired," Silver said.
He said more opportunities could arise if the political environment becomes more favorable to Republicans, perhaps "because of a further slide in Mr. Obama's approval ratings."
Meanwhile, he noted, "Republicans have few seats of their own to defend," even though seats in Kentucky and Georgia might be vulnerable.
"Unlike in 2012, they can focus almost entirely on playing offense," he said.
Silver concluded that the "best guess, after assigning probabilities of the likelihood of a GOP pickup in each state, is that Republicans will end up with somewhere between 50 and 51 Senate seats
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...
His prediction was NEAR PERFECT.
In 2008 Silver gained popularity and influence after he called 49 out of 50 states. Many pundits were predicting that Silver would crash and burn in 2012. Instead, he outperformed his 2008 predictions and after Florida has been called for Obama in Nov. 2012, Silver can tout a perfect record 50 out of 50 states called correctly.
FROM THIS SITE:
Nate Silver was SPOT ON.
The Top Five Pollsters in 2012 (After Nate Silver):
1. Investor’s Business Daily wins the most accurate polling data for 2012
2. Google – came in a close second
3. The Mellman Group, led by Mark Mellman, shined again this year in third place
4. RAND Corp., a non-profit research group, came in fourth.
5. CNN finished out the top 5
Other notables
6. Reuters – just out of the top five
11. Quinnipiac – middle of the pack for one of the high profile polls
12. Marist
19. Zogby
Who Were the Worst Pollsters in 2012?
Rasumussen
American Research
Mason-Dixon
Gallup was dead last
“Silver concluded that the “best guess, after assigning probabilities of the likelihood of a GOP pickup in each state, is that Republicans will end up with somewhere between 50 and 51 Senate seats”
I guess Dred Scott must be running for the Senate and the Pubs will end up with 50 3/5 seats according to Silver.
He is dealing with probabilities—you can make fun of him, but he is well worth reading.
“The GOP, which holds 46 seats in the Senate, likely will lose New Jersey’s special election in October to replace the late Sen. Frank Lautenberg, according to Silver.”
Correct me if I’m wrong, but this is Christie’s fault. He could have appointed a conservative not due for election for well after 2014. Instead it probably will go Dem, according to Silver.
Thanks CC. Don’t to forget to hug your obama doll before you go to sleep tonight.
While running for his Senate seat in 1984, and again while running for the Democratic presidential nomination in 1992, Harkin has faced criticism for claiming that he had flown combat missions over North Vietnam. In a 1979 round table discussion with other Congressional military veterans, Harkin said of his service as a Navy pilot: "One year was in Vietnam. I was flying F-4s and F-8s on combat air patrols and photo-reconnaissance support missions". These comments were later published in a 1981 book by David Broder. After subsequent inquiries by Barry Goldwater and The Wall Street Journal, Harkin clarified that he had been stationed in Japan and sometimes flew recently repaired aircraft on test missions over Vietnam. His service flying F-4s and F-8s was later, while he was stationed at U.S. Naval Base Guantánamo Bay, Cuba.
I have great respect for almost everyone who wears, or who has worn our Country's uniform (I even include myself in this great group.)
This respect ends, and most abruptly so, on anyone who claims combat service when there was none.
I just hope the GOP doesn’t nominate idiots (Akin and Mourdock) or hopeless candidates (Sharon Angle) who piss away races they should win.
In 2010 it was Nevada, Colorado, Alaska, and Delaware. Yeah, Castle was mostly worthless but he might have cast a good vote once in a while.
In 2012 it was Missouri, Indiana, Wisconsin, Montana, North Dakota, and Florida.
The GOP should already have at least 56 seats. At a minimum, the GOP should pick candidates who don’t fall into obvious abortion-trap questions from a hostile media.
He dead wrong about the WI Gov recall .
Dead wrong about Rick Scott losing.
He was dead wrong the GOP taking the House and at he last second change his analysis because he knew it was pure propaganda .
But, He is an Dedicated Obama bot who got insider information about 2008 from the Obama bot campaign people.
Fraud.
Let us hope they do not nominate RINOs that alienate their own base
The “Wings Over Hanoi” pimp shows up on Harkin’s web page and occasionally in letters to newspapers in Iowa.
“even though seats in Kentucky and Georgia might be vulnerable”
Don’t you believe it about GA. Saxby Chambliss’ seat will be filled by a conservative republican hopefully Paul Broun.
I think this guy, Silver is a punk. But, you got to give him credit for his forecasting in 2012. Hopefully he’s right on this.
He may be a punk, but I’ll give him credit where credit is due — FOR HIS PREDICTIVE RECORD.
But then there’s the caveat I always get from my mutual funds: “Past Performance is no guarantee of future results”.
Got to give him credit, even if we despise him, totally agree.
"Republicans are well-positioned to win control of the House of Representatives in tomorrow’s elections, and quite possibly to achieve the largest gain made by either party in a Congressional election since World War II. Our forecasting model, which is based on a consensus of indicators including generic ballot polling, polling of local districts, expert forecasts, and fund-raising data, now predicts an average Republican gain of 54 seats (up one from 53 seats in last night’s forecast), and a median Republican gain of 55 seats. These figures would exceed the 52 seats that Republicans won from Democrats in the 1994 midterms. Moreover, given the exceptionally large number of seats in play, the Republicans’ gains could be significantly higher; they have better than a one-in-three chance of winning at least 60 seats, a one-in-six chance of winning at least 70 seats, and have some realistic chance of a gain exceeding 80 seats, according to the model."
Changing his prediction at the last second because he knew it was "propaganda" as you say is not at all characteristic of Silver. It does, however, hew pretty closely to what happened at Gallup last year (not that they knew it was propaganda, but could see they were dead dead wrong). Check out Unskewed Polls for a clown who changed his prediction dramatically at the last second because he knew he was peddling bs,
I love all the trolls here defending this Obama bot Silver.
This fraud is the Obama pollster and nothing more.
This. obama bot was running around trying to hide the fact about the GOP winning anything each year .
You can bs me. Troll
Do you have any actual facts to support your contention, or just vitriol?
I posted Silver’s 2010 house prediction clear as day.
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