[TomGuy]

Republicans seem sure to win ...

They seemed sure to win a couple more Senate seats in 2012. Instead, they lost those and a couple more.

Any time the Republicans seem headed for a 'sure thing', it seems to result in a loss.

The biggest problem the Republicans still have is getting a coherent message out. They don't seem to know what they stand for or are willing to fight for. They abdicated the position of 'loyal opposition' a long time ago. They seem more and more to be moving to become the Dem-lite party.

Old adage: If you don't stand for something, you will fall for anything.

Proof: Marco Rubio, for one.

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Of course, Barone's credibility suffered a huge blow when he predicted a Romney landslide in 2012. Romney didn't even come close. Maybe Barone has some new tea leaves. Maybe his next call to Miss Cleo will result in better predictions.

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Arkansas's Pryor does seem to be an easy target. The Republicans sent Blanche Lincoln packing. However, only a few have made noise about running against Pryor and they are not presently considered as 'strong' contenders.

[CPT Clay]

We also need to Prioritize those seats. Ie you get more bang for your buck is small inexpensive media markets. Also “upgrading” has its risk as well. Ask the folks in Indiana how that worked out for them..

So, using this criteria, Lets prioritize the Upgrades:

WY: inexpensive media, Good replacement check and check.

TN: Way more costly, Lamar! is a RINO, some good choices are available (Marsha Blackburn)

SC: Expensive, Don’t forget, Tim Scott also will be on the ballot. Anybody else see a problem with explaining that this republican good, that republican bad to a low information voter?

GA: Not red enough to assure winner in bloody primary takes general.

TX: Too expensive, money better utilized elsewhere.
“Take Backs”
Added Criteria: Open seats are easier to take.
How Republican is the electorate, margin in last 3 presidentals is a good rule of thumb.

SD: Inexpensive Media, Open Seat, Very Republican in Statewide races, poor candidate selection by dems.

MT: Open, inexpensive media, Most formidable dem chose not to run.
WV: Open, Reasonable media expense, Poor candidate selection on Dem. ( Is Capito just another RINO?)

AK: Begitch has baggage, Imagine the shear size of Alaska makes media expensive. Never voted for a budget in 6 yrs.

LA: Landrieu has always under performed. Her state lost 400k mostly dem voters after Katrina. Media is reasonalby priced. Please lets pick this up!! Very favorable Demographics.

AR: Pryor is vulnerable to the right candidate. Media is reasonable, more bang for the buck. Has not voted on a budget in 6yrs in majority. Favorable demographics.

NC: Hagan has not done anything for the state. Demographics and media are not as favorable as previous states; Has not voted for a budget in six years of the majority. Rubber Stamp for Harry Reid.

IA: Open, reasonable cost. Even Demographics.
MI: Open, expensive, fair demographics for right candidate.
CO: Udall is despicable, Media more than average cost, has not voted for a budget in 6 yrs of majority. Good place to undo OFA.

In Conclusion, My rankings in priority would be:
1: SD
2: MT
3: WV
4: LA
5: AK
6: AR
7: WY
8: IA
9: NC
10: TN
11: CO
12: MI
13: SC
14: MN I would really love to see Franken defeated.
15: GA

Thanks for Playing, CPT Clay