Even Pessimists Feel Optimistic About the American Economy (What Drug Has the NYT Been On?)

New York Times ^ | June 15, 2013 | Nelson D. Schwartz

[lbryce]

For more than a decade, the economy has failed to grow the way it once did. Unemployment has not stayed this high, this long, since the 1930s.

But could the New Normal, as this long economic slog has been called, be growing old?

That is the surprising new view of a number of economists in academia and on Wall Street, who are now predicting something the United States has not experienced in years: healthier, more lasting growth.

The improving outlook is one reason the stock market has risen so sharply this year, even if street-level evidence for a turnaround, like strong job growth and income gains, has been scant so far.

A prominent convert to this emerging belief is Tyler Cowen, an economics professor at George Mason University near Washington and author of “The Great Stagnation,” a 2011 best seller, who has gone from doomsayer to a decidedly more optimistic perspective.

He is not predicting an imminent resurgence. Like most academic economists, Mr. Cowen focuses on the next quarter-century rather than the next quarter. But new technologies like artificial intelligence and online education, increased domestic energy production and slowing growth in the cost of health care have prompted Mr. Cowen to reappraise the country’s prospects.

[HiTech RedNeck]

If enough blessing prevails in the US to make it possible to reap the benefits of the resources the US has... we will see a boost in the economy. And again that depends on individuals. It is spiritual, not sociological, not psychological (except as much as spiritual factors move those latter things).

But Satan is mighty and can bury any blessing if a people robustly denies God. All that oil will do exactly nothing if Satan is permitted his way.

[DoughtyOne]

Disagree.
So do I.  Job growth in the last twleve years has been 1.73%.  Normally for 12 years it's 28.79%.  Some booming economy we have here.

There is no big growth out there. We’ll poke along at 2-3%. That said— there’s no downside to the US economy right now worth worrying about. 
Personally, I think 2-3% if optimistic.  In the last four years 2009 - 2013,  jobs grew by 0.9%.  (in FOUR years)  As for your comment about no downside right now, I can't agree.  We can't go along adding 2.29 million jobs over 12 years and that's what we've been doing.  That means we fall behind some 18 million jobs every 12 years.  We're quickly becoming a third world nation.  23.6% of our potential work force is out of work.  Heaven only knows how much of the 76.4% that are working, are working way under what they were working.  15%?  25%?  I don't know for sure.  We have a potential situation here where as much as 50% of our workforce is either not working or working for far less than they used to.  That is a terrible downside.  Not trying to be offensivly disagreeable, but I do think this is important.
You did touch on certain sectors we know to be going gangbusters right now.  Still, all in all, I'm very bearish on economic growth.
 
To my way of thinking, jobs say it all.  If we're not producing jobs, they can say whatever they want.  I'm not buying in.

In the last 12 years, we have added 2,291,000 jobs to our government and private secetor segments of our economy.  Normally over the forty years from 1961 to 2001, we added 20,688,000 jobs on average over 12 years.

We should have 175 million jobs today in the U. S., but we only have 134.8 million.

I agree with your post.  Please don't take this as a chop job on your thoughts.  I don't look at it that way at all.  Thanks for the post.

[ckilmer]

But Satan is mighty and can bury any blessing if a people robustly denies God. All that oil will do exactly nothing if Satan is permitted his way.
...........
technically speaking, Satan only can do what God allows him to do—an no more.

economically speaking the big satanic curse came during the 1970’s when the first OPEC oil embargo coincided with peak US (easy)oil production—coupled with a massive Saudi oil production boom... we are coming out on the far side of that. the ramp up of US oil production over the next couple years will be nearly the largest if not the largest in the history of all countries including saudi arabia and russia.

[ckilmer]

Just saying, it is never a totally up or totally down picture. But, overall... I’d sure hate to be looking for employment today! My Lord, what agony .... and on such a massive scale...

...........
well if you have young uns in their 20’s or such —just tell them to go to one of several oil patches around the USA. there’s plenty of jobs there and plenty of money even for a rube who doesn’t know much.

its much tougher for the older guys to adjust to a changing economy.

[faithhopecharity]

yup, and in some industries “too old” begins at maybe 33 or 35 years of age

(used to be maybe about 40)

we agree!

touch scene out there

[JustTheTruth]

Big banks still insolvent if they honestly marked asset values to market. US debt - if honestly use GAAP accounting for accrued liabilities - is $84 Trillion and growing at an alarming rate. All major central banks are racing to devalue their currencies ... Arms buildup in the Middle East, Europe straining to keep from a financial implosion due to runs on insolvent banks, Japan taking the lead to trigger a potential pop in the global bond market bubble, ... central planners attempting to hide their huge financial market distortions, savers and pensioners being oppressed into the ground through unprecedented levels of financial repression, etc. etc.

Nope no black swans in there! Nothing to see here, folks!

Step right up to drink the Bernanke Kool aid!

[ckilmer]

Nope no black swans in there! Nothing to see here, folks!
...........
Therefor gold should be going through the roof. And you should be rich for making such a shrewd investment. Certainly nobody ever accused you of being a day late and a dollar short.

Just because banks have been shrinking their frackional banking ratios from 30-1 or more to the more traditional 12-1 ratios for the last four years — is no reason for bernake to print money.

Just because the USA is slicing 100 billion a year out of its trade deficit because of rising oil production — is no reason for the dollar to be stable or even rise.

No no the dollar should be going down AND gold should be going up.

But neither are happening. What’s wrong with this picture. Has the world gone daft?

(I argue on other forums that the current middle east wars are now old money wars. That the world is moving on. Or as they say in the middle east. the dogs bark and caravan moves on.)

[JustTheTruth]

Stay tuned. You are singing with the “this time is different” chorus.

Let’s see where the price of gold is in a year, then debate it.

Bookmarked for reply in 2014.