It's been running about 30 already... I doubt it can get MUCH worse.
W got at least 40%.. maybe a little higher. It's possible... But, it will take a candidate who at least TRIES to relate to them... a little.
At this point, I really think the political effect is over-stated... in BOTH directions. If 11 MM are added to the voter rolls in 13 years... and, they vote 70% Dem, that's a 3MM voter advantage for them. We could more than make that up JUST by having a conservative candidate who brings out the base.
Sometimes... our elected Reps need to do whats GOOD FOR THE COUNTRY... and, let the politics work themselves out. Our current immigration system is horrible... the HUGE numbers of illegal, and undocumented people living here is a security issue. We NEED to be able to bring in more skilled labor. There are a LOT of things that COULD be improved in a real, overall reform.
That said... I am NOT saying I support the current bill... because it's NOT yet finalized. It depends on the final form: what makes it, what doesn't. A fair amount of it looks decent to me. But, the last few issues remaining (like a border security trigger BEFORE citizenship) are important and difficult for both sides.
Possible but unlikely. That number was from an outlier poll in 2004. The average of pre-election polls was Bush 32%. GWB got low 30s in every one of those polls except Gallup 6/30 (38%). I made some html formatting to make the data from the pdf file more readable:
The Latino Vote in the 2004 Election
Table 1 Latino Political Preferences in Pre-Election Polls
Survey Sponsor Date N Bush Kerry
Bendixen & Associates 6/3/2003 800 34% 48%^ Democracy Corps 2/16/2004 1,564 34% 56%
Miami Herald/Zogby 4/01/2004 1,000 33% 58%
Gallup 6/30/2004 500 38% 57%
Washington Post/TRPI 7/16/2004 1,605 30% 60%
Pew Hispanic Center 7/20/2004 751 32% 62%
Democracy Corps 7/22/2004 1,000 30% 61%
Bendixen & Associates* 9/20/2004 900 29% 64%
Washington Post/TRPI 10/15/2004 1,603 30% 60%
Miami Herald/Zogby 10/24/2004 1,000 33% 61%
2004 Survey Average 2/04–10/04 9,923# 32% 60%
^Poll of 6/3/2003 compared a Bush vs. Democratic nominee match-up in the 2004 election. *Poll of 9/20/2004 was a four-state survey in the Southwest including Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada. #Combined survey sample size of 9,923 Latino registered voters carries a margin of error of 0.98%.
At this point, I really think the political effect is over-stated... in BOTH directions. If 11 MM are added to the voter rolls in 13 years... and, they vote 70% Dem, that's a 3MM voter advantage for them. We could more than make that up JUST by having a conservative candidate who brings out the base.
70%-30% would be a margin of 40%, so it depends on how many were voting age at that time. If nearly all of them could vote (and in 13-15 years that would likely be the case), that would be over 4 million. But do you really believe that 11 million is accurate? They have been quoting that number for a very long time.
Remember that the amnesty proponents in 1986 promised only 250,000 would be amnestied. LINK: Chuck Schumer says making that claim. (What a coincidence! Schumer is at the forefront of this amnesty too!) The real number was 10 times bigger.
Our current immigration system is horrible.
And in 1986 the amnesty was going to fix that. Think Charlie Brown, football, Lucy.