Mia-leading? Shtick? Ok let’s examine those numbers further because to ignore demographics is to ignore reality. First lets look at census in 2000 which showed non- Hispanic white population at 69.1, in 2000
This number slid to 63.7. I won’t even get into birth rates or grade school registration.
Now lets look at past presidential elections. A common misconception is that the minority share of the vote experienced an unsustainable surge in 2008 because of Obama’s history-making status as the first African-American presidential nominee. In fact, the growth in the minority role has been steady over the past two decades, according to exit polls. From 12 percent in 1992, the minority share of the vote increased to 17 percent in 1996, 21 percent in 2000, and 23 percent in 2004, 26 percent level in 2008 and of course in 2012 28%. Remember unskewed polls? To think the number will drop next time for Hillary or whomever is ignoring history and the census.
My argument has nothing to do with demographics, and everything to do with turnout as a % of the existing ethnic groups. In 2012, white turnout was in the low 60% range. Black turnout was in the low 70% range. Black turnout has traditionally been lower than white turnout, which is why the 2010 mid-term elections led to the GOP domination of the House. Ultimately, the GOP needs candidates who get whites excited enough to show up. Obama is the black Reagan - just as Reagan got whites to show up, Obama got blacks energized. Demographics isn't the whole story - what it really comes down to is getting your people to vote. If Romney had gotten whites to show up at the polls in the proportions that they did in 2004, he would have won the popular vote.