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How Romney could have won the popular vote (It all came down to turnout)
Daily Caller ^ | 06/01/2013

Posted on 06/01/2013 5:31:18 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

White and Hispanic turnout fell from 2004 to 2012, according to a new study by the Center for Immigration Studies based on newly-released U.S. Census data.

Had turnout equaled what it was in 2004, 4.7 million more whites would have voted in 2012, of which 4.2 million were not college graduates, according to the study.

Obama received five million more votes than Romney.

“As Republicans think about how they can expand their voter base, the new data suggest that one of their biggest problems in the last presidential election was that so many less-educated whites sat home,” said Steven Camarota, CIS’ director of research and author of the report. CIS favors low levels of legal immigration

“These voters, who have been hit hard by the recession, have traditionally supported Republicans,” Camarota said. “It seems likely that by supporting the Schumer-Rubio amnesty, GOP legislators would further alienate these voters.”

To win the popular vote with female support, Romney would have needed four extra percentage points of the women’s vote (48 percent rather than the 44 he actually received), with each percentage point equating to 714,000 votes.

To earn the popular vote with blacks and Hispanics, Romney would have needed an extra 15 or 23 percentage points, respectively. But the statistics regarding whites demonstrated how closely the Republican candidate came to a plurality win.

With one percentage point of the white vote equating to 980,000 votes, Romney would have won the popular vote with a mere three percent greater turnout.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: damnlies; elections; flawed; flawedanalysis; obama; popularvote; potus; romney; romney2012; statistics
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To: trebb

Ditto.


201 posted on 06/02/2013 3:30:33 PM PDT by ROCKLOBSTER (Hey RATs! Control your murdering freaks.)
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To: ROCKLOBSTER

You would invoke the nuclear war fighting principle “use it or lose it” and not commit all your forces to a certain outcome?


202 posted on 06/02/2013 3:35:11 PM PDT by Jim Noble (When strong, avoid them. Attack their weaknesses. Emerge to their surprise.)
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To: Jim Noble

Not exactly.

It now appears some groups of moslem savages just need to be wiped out. We can do it without taking out a city.

If the local populace decides to take them out, or turn them over to avoid further damage....good.

If not, we can eliminate the city or region. How long we going to keep pussyfooting around?


203 posted on 06/02/2013 3:47:01 PM PDT by ROCKLOBSTER (Hey RATs! Control your murdering freaks.)
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To: x
Do you really think it was "Romney lies" that did in Perry or Bachmann or Caine or Santorum or Gingrich? Didn't they have obvious negatives? If any of them had gotten the nomination the DNC would have hammered away at those negatives. I don't see any of them doing any better than Romney did, at least according to the polling data, and the polls did come closer to the actual result than people who scoffed at them.

Were you paying attention during the South Carolina and Florida primaries?

Romney got hammered in SC, and then went on an all-out attack lying about the made up ethics charges against Newt while he was speaker.

He didn't misspeak, he didn't give his opinion, HE LIED.

He and his surrogates did the same thing to all the other candidates that threatened him.

You ask me if I think "Romney lies" did in the other candidates and if I am totally discounting the blemishes on the other candidates?

That is a two-part question:

1. IF Romney had run an above-board campaign during the primaries, he would have lost. No lying, Romney would have lost.
2. The negatives on the other candidates, whatever they were, did not rise to the level of the dirty campaigning by Romney nor did it rise anywhere near to the Progressive Liberal history that Romney owns.
204 posted on 06/02/2013 4:25:05 PM PDT by SoConPubbie (Mitt and Obama: They're the same poison, just a different potency)
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To: SoConPubbie; x

You add in the following, and Romney wouldn’t even place:

1. Full disclosure on Romney’s Progressive Liberal record.
2. Closed Republican Primaries.


205 posted on 06/02/2013 4:42:41 PM PDT by SoConPubbie (Mitt and Obama: They're the same poison, just a different potency)
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To: Finny
Wow. Very well said.

Thank you.

206 posted on 06/02/2013 8:35:59 PM PDT by OneWingedShark (Q: Why am I here? A: To do Justly, to love mercy, and to walk humbly with my God.)
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To: cripplecreek
Rick Santorum outperformed Romney by a mile in the south. The southern candidates were pathetic last time around.

I agree about the candidates...the point was on who wins historically. Northeastern liberal republican...a statistical shoe in to loose. Look at history and find the last Northeastern republican to win a national election....it is just fact.

The problem is that the heads of the party, knows as well as I do, historically and statistically what wins national elections for them and they chose to lose in a year that they could have blown this election out of the water in a Reagan landslide.

Things that make you go hmmmm....

207 posted on 06/05/2013 7:13:20 AM PDT by Lady Heron
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