There is this mythology out there about the 2012 elections (including being pushed by Rush) that Romney lost because millions of conservative voters failed to show up. The facts speak for themselves. Obama received 3.5 million less voters than he did in 2008 and Romney received one million more than McCain did in 2008. The reality is that it was Obama's voters who stayed home. And Romney got more votes than McCain in 8 of the 9 battleground states.
I think of OH. He just didn't get that vote that was there for Kasich for governor and Portman for US Senate two years ago. Both did a better job appealing to conservatives and not totally writing off the cities.
First, comparing off year elections with Presidential election years is like comparing apples and oranges. The turnout is much lower in the off years. In 2012, Romney received 2,661,437 votes compared to Kasich's 1,889,180 votes, which were just 49% of the total vote. Kasich won by just 78K votes. Portman received 2,168,736 or 56% of the vote.
McCain received 2,677,820 votes in OH slightly better than Romney and the only battleground state where McCain received more votes than Romney. Obama received about 110,000 less votes in 2012 than he did in 2012.
In PA, an earlier push in coal country, the other rural/non eastern areas, and for supporting states rights could've been better. Fact is, Romney just didn't say enough about securing the borders, bringing good jobs to depressed areas for citizens, and going back to states rights.
Obama won PA with 52% of the vote compared to Romney's 46.6%. Romney received 15K more votes than McCain and Obama received almost 300K less in 2012 than he did in 2008.
The last time PA went Rep was in 1988 by a scant 2.3%. PA was never really in play for Romney. He lost by 300K.
Again, there is the mythology that Romney lost because his voters failed to show up. It is just wrong. The problem is that the non-Hispanic white population has declined and will continue to decline in the future. In 1970 non-Hispanic whites were 89% of the population, today they are 66% and will be 50% by 2042. Romney won the non-Hispanic white vote (59%) across every age group and both genders. McCain only attracted 55% of the non-Hispanic white vote.
By 2019, half of the children 18 and under will be minorities as classified by the USG. Each voter cohort that turns 18 every year will be more and more Democrat. Minorities already outnumber non-Hispanic whites in the first grade. By 2042 half of the country will be minorities.
87 percent of the 1.2 million legal immigrants entering annually are minorities as defined by the U.S. Government and almost all of the illegal aliens are minorities. Generally, immigrants and minorities vote predominantly for the Democrat Party. Hence, Democrats view immigration as a never-ending source of voters that will make them the permanent majority party.
We have entered a era of tribal politics. Obama received 95% of the black vote, 73% of the Asian vote, and 71% of the Hispanic vote. Obama's reelection demonstrated that we have reached a tipping point in terms of national electoral politics. More than likely, it will be generations before we ever see another Rep in the WH. Demography is destiny.
romney won the independent vote by a substantial margin and lost base votes. Rush is correct in some of his critique and so are you... but romney lost base votes. He almost lost mine but Jim Robinson convinced me to vote to defeat obama and I did. There are those here on FR that will confirm that they didn’t vote for romney and either went third party or just didn’t vote. If the gop/e do not change... it will be 20% or more of the base that will not show in 2016. It may even be much more of the base turning their backs on the elite. They may even come in a distant third place. I am not promoting this... I am just making an observation. Look to England and see what is going on there.
LLS
Ignore the exit polls. they were statistically incorrect, nor is it possible to definitize the East Asian vote as predominantly Democratic when the ony place you tested for it was in Hawaii!
Then isn't GWB the real villian here? He's an open borders, love-those-Mexicans nut. If he'd gone with the conservative flow and sealed that darn border and demanded EVerify that would've happened. Logic after 911 would've been to send home everyone in the country illegally....instead we've become the new Chechynan homeland.
I really believe that the 'pubs can do it with a message for constitutional conservatives. But they'll have to stop being the Cheap Labor Party and they'll have to care more about securing our southern border than about Afghanistan's.
So, what's the solution?
Any candidate who won 95% of the WHITE vote would be a king.
Any candidate who won 71%-73% of the white vote would be unbeatable.
The problem is NOT the decline to 66% (although that IS the cause of many OTHER problems).
The problem is that the blacks, browns, red(skins) and yellows have gone tribal, along with the rest of the 21st Century world, and the whites have not..yet.
Go Right, Go White, or go home. That's the future for any party that replaces the GOP, which is basically already dead on the national level.