Posted on 04/16/2013 5:15:16 AM PDT by dennisw
Daily investment & finance & thread (4-16-13 edition) Freepers lets make some cash
Trying to focus on the markets for today and each day and the economic news
This is where you can impart some investment wisdom to your fellow freepers. You can vent about the big one that got away. You can
chime in how Obama is out to wreck American capitalism.
If you see another FR economic thread you like and want to link to it here, please do
Post your favorite economic site links. Your favorite economic blogs and precious metals blogs and sites
Apmex.com is a solid place with good reputation to buy precious metals and has great presence on ebay for easy quick impulse buys
such as a gift for a college boy's graduation. College Girls too! Even high scoool.
Kitco is the best site for gold and silver charts and other precious metals information
Ping list -- on or off let me know here or via freep-mail. If I missed you then Freep-mail me
I might ping you to other interesting economic threads a few times a week. One per day maybe
Sites that posters have recommended ------ zerohedge turdferguson (precious metals)
More useful markets links>>>
The Markets....
http://seekingalpha.com/ http://www.dailystocks.com/ http://www.gainerstoday.com/ http://www.gainerstoday.com/ http://www.realclearmarkets.com/ http://247wallst.com/ http://www.decisionmoose.com/ http://www.market-ticker.org/
Dividends...
http://dividendsvalue.com/ http://www.dividends4life.com/ http://www.dividendyieldhunter.com/ http://www.dividendstocksonline.com/ http://www.dividenddetective.com/ http://dividendstocks4income.com/ http://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/
“Drip-ing”...
http://dripinvesting.org/tools/tools.asp
Fee-Only www.napfa.org http://www.bertwhitehead.com/pages/home/
CPA’s.... http://www.aicpa.org
Gold, Out of the Box Thinking etc...
http://www.davejanda.com/ https://www.everbank.com/ http://dailypfennig.com/ http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/ http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/ http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/
Oil and Gas Industry
http://fuelfix.com/ http://www.theoildrum.com/ http://www.petroleumnews.com/cgi-bin/start.cgi/homeauto.html
Treasury Basics..
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/BC/SBCPrice
ping pong
Oil futures are down this AM. That usually means stocks will be down.
Housing starts are up more than expected and last months numbers were revised up. CRAZY!!
Huge beat for housing starts. First time over 1 million since 2008. Permits a big miss. Expect starts to moderate into the mid 900’s for the next few months.
8:39 AM More on Housing Starts: Offsetting the big headline print a bit are building permits, which fell 3.9% vs. forecasts of a 0.3% gain. The gain in housing starts came from multi-family as single-family starts of 619K were off 4.8% from February. S&P 500 futures are just off session highs, +0.9%. Homebuilders ETF: XHB +1.5% premarket.
Guess the news isn’t all good.
Oil futes (/CL) aren’t down over $2 like they were yesterday per cme.com, -.22 cents as I write this. I believe the market will take that as an arrestment of the decline, very short term, and will stabilize stock prices, IMHO. Plus gold is +40 and the DJ futures are up ~~135. On a vicious smashdown day like yesterday, the odds overwhelmingly favor a HWB halfway back type of rally and that apppears to be on deck, virtually to the DJ point! Buy panic. There is no question that if the commod bloodbath continues that the market is going to have a problem with a growth story going forward. However, the market generally and perversely likes this kind of thing because it knows the Fed will pump in response. I think there are TOMOs scheduled every day this week.
Yes I just saw the report on the permits. I am watching the housing situation and trying to figure out if it is safe to buy something. Here in FL there are still a lot of foreclosure in the pipe but new stuff is going up. I guess gone are the days of anything being ‘normal’.
Foreclosure pipelines (nationally) are coming down. New and existing home inventories are below historical averages and are relatively tight. New construction, even opat 1 million starts, is still well below “normal” of 1.5 million. There might be a “pause” but household formation is at or above normal of 1.2 million which drives demand so it will pick back up and inventories are tight. That’s an environment for rising prices.
Another thing about oil...again, IMO, it’s not all that conclusive on small moves. Sometimes the mkt interprets that as “oil will get cheaper, thus eco activity will increase”. Sometimes the mkt interprets that as “ooooh, oil is getting more dear, thus there must be eco activity going on that would increase the scarcity”. I’m not claiming expert status here.
If you want to see the single most volatile thing I myself have ever seen, watch oil futures Wednesdays at 9:30 CST/CDT when the EIA report comes out. Talk about rip your eyes out. You can see 50 and 75 cent price swings, stops and reversals, faster than your brain can even register them. I have had stops taken out 16 cents away from the pre-announce price in literally the blink of an eye. No smalltime trader is in the market at that moment unless they’re interested in being carried out on a stretcher.
I am thinking of buying FCX. Even if it makes $3 a share instead of $4 this year, it is still trading at less than 10 times earnings and pays over 4%.
What do you guys think? How will gold, copper, and natural gas do in the next 3-5 years?
It's worth a shot on trading money. In this manipulated market it will be a rollercoaster. Ordinarily I wouldn't hesitate but right now we are the puppets and the Fed is pulling the strings.
I think it might be a good buy at the price, depending on how commodities do in the next few years. Collecting a 4.2% dividend never hurts.
I just made an initial purchase of 800 shares at slightly under 30.
Looks decent to me. I just like to scale in, not just for trades, but for LT holds.
You just missed the dividend, so that should not be a factor. Indeed, had you chased the divvy you’d be seriously underwater considering the smackdown.
But I like to scale in. Because if your commishs are $10, that’s only a 5 cent difference in price on 200-200-200-200. It’s a style thing, there are plenty of folks who slam down for 1000 shs at a whack and don’t look at it for months.
I like the company and have for many years and have owned it several times.
Well, if the price goes down, I might buy another 200 or 400.
But you’re right, I do like to go in like that. You’ll never catch the bottom price anyway. I said I was in at under 30, so I did it.
I have missed too many good buys by not buying enough, or buying any, when I thought the price was good. You can’t get too greedy on the downside.
Fair enough, this is an equivocal discussion, for every time you did this, that happened, for every time you did that, this happened.
I am a fan of resource stocks, as you may be. I am concerned with the weakness in oil. Now, does the weakness in oil portend lower operating costs for an FCX, thus higher profits, or does the resource sector take a poop in a weakening economy? Nobody can predict. I thought I had a smokin’ entry on FCX @ 31.38 earlier this year, watched it go to 35, and watched stupidly as it all went away.
Me, personally...I am concerned about oil and concerned about persistent weakness in copper /HG. Those (even the oil) WILL affect non-oil resource stocks because (among other things) of the allocations in various etfs.
I'm holding on for awhile, some think it will top $40 again. Here's a good article:
Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold Stock Rating Reaffirmed by BB&T (FCX) Yesterday was a bad selloff but it's up a little today. Things are looking a little better for me today, have one other problem stock I don't want to take a loss on so am sitting on it. I made money on it a few weeks ago.
Things change very fast in the market and you can't always repeat the same success on the same stock in the same way.
The other thing I wanted to say about FCX (et al) in support of my “scale in” scenario is that these stocks might well be tossed out coming into the end of the month. Though I agree that FCX is cheapish here. Tempted, myself.
Though there are a ton of 30-struck puts on it, so maybe it’s righteous!
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