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Criminologist refutes cannabis-related crime increase claims
The University of Kent ^ | 8 April 2013 | M.J.Herrema

Posted on 04/08/2013 10:01:37 AM PDT by JustSayNoToNannies

Criminologist Professor Alex Stevens has refuted media reports that reducing penalties for cannabis possession has led to increased drug use, crime and health problems. He said published data shows that these claims are unfounded and in fact highlight that cannabis use and crime have gone down since the 2004 declassification of cannabis to a class C substance.

He said: ‘Government policy on cannabis hit the headlines again recently, when both the Daily Mail and the Daily Telegraph ran articles on it claiming reductions in penalties for users of the drug have increased both crime and drug-related hospital admissions. If cannabis declassification did cause these effects, it would be an interesting and novel finding. Most researchers who have studied this issue have found little evidence of changes in use or related harms as a result of changes to penalties for users.

‘There are two national surveys that provide information about trends in cannabis use. The British Crime Survey (BCS) includes people aged 16 to 59. The Survey of Smoking, Drinking and Drug Use among Young People in England includes school pupils aged 11 to 15. Eleven per cent of 16 to 59 year-olds reported that they had used cannabis in the year before cannabis was moved down to class C in 2004. This figure was 13 per cent among 11 to 15 year-olds. By 2009, this figure had fallen to eight per cent in the older age group, and to nine per cent in the younger. It is very hard to square these reductions with a claim that the changes in 2004 caused cannabis use to rise. Over the same period, crime (as estimated by the BCS) fell by 17 per cent.

‘So what is the source of the claims that appeared in the Mail and the Telegraph? They are based on two papers presented to the Royal Economic Society, which remain unpublished. One of them uses rates of admission to hospital that were recorded as having been related to ‘harder’, Class A drugs. It links these rates to the period in 2001 to 2002 when the cannabis warning scheme was introduced in Lambeth, but nowhere else. It is reported to show that this caused a durable increase in hospital admissions amongst men of between 40 to 100 per cent.

‘This is quite a claim. To make us confident that it is accurate, the researchers would need to do several things. They would need to show that cannabis use actually rose, which they appear not to have done. They would then need to establish a causal link from cannabis use to hospital admissions for harder drugs. This would be possible if there were clear evidence of a ‘gateway effect’ that makes cannabis users move on to more dangerous substances. The problem is that, despite decades of searching, such clear evidence is still missing.

‘The researchers would additionally have to compare trends in Lambeth to those in other, similar places where the cannabis warning scheme was not in place. It would be very important to show that these places were not just any old borough, from leafy Richmond to suburban Havering. They would have to be inner city boroughs, with similar socio-economic problems and drug markets to Lambeth. And finally, the researchers would have to assume that nothing else was going on in the period after 2001 that would affect the data. They would have to ignore, for instance, the rise of the crack market in this decade. This caused havoc in the lives of many Lambeth drug users. The press reporting of this research gives no indication that these problems have been solved, and so we should have very little confidence in this reporting.

‘We are even more justified in disbelieving the claim of increased crime, given that the authors of this research have already distanced themselves from it. The research, by Nils Braakmann and Simon Jones, uses a national survey of self-reported offending in the years before and after the 2004 reclassification. The Mail claims that it shows increases in cannabis use and other crimes after penalties for cannabis were relaxed. In his response to the press reports, Dr Braakmann stated that his research ‘does not demonstrate an absolute increase in real-terms in cannabis consumption since declassification’. Rather, he said that it shows an increase amongst people who previously did not consume cannabis. Of course, cannabis use amongst people who had never used cannabis could only go one way: up. To prove that this increase was affected by the 2004 changes would be very difficult to do, and has so far not been done. If we do not know that declassification increased cannabis use, we can be no more confident that it increased crime.

‘So we are left with the best data we have on cannabis use and crime, from the two national surveys of adults and school children. They show that both cannabis use and crime - far from increasing after the 2004 declassification - actually went down.’

Alex Stevens is Professor of Criminal Justice within the University’s School of Social Policy, Sociology and Social Research.


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; United Kingdom
KEYWORDS: cannabis; drugs; drugwar; marijuana; warondrugs; wod; wodlist; wosd
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The Drug Warriors continue to crank out junk science.
1 posted on 04/08/2013 10:01:37 AM PDT by JustSayNoToNannies
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To: JustSayNoToNannies

I was in the Security Police in the Air Force, and worked with many NYState Cops in the reserves.

The general opinions is they would rather respond to a call about potheads than drunks- the potheads are not violent.


2 posted on 04/08/2013 10:12:59 AM PDT by Mr. K (There are lies, damned lies, statistics, and democrat talking points.)
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To: Mr. K
I used to perform psychiatric assessments in area emergency rooms.

Lots of angry drunks, IV drug users, meth addicts handcuffed to gurneys.

Potheads don't wind up in the ER. They go to the King Buffet or just lay on the couch and giggle.


3 posted on 04/08/2013 10:18:56 AM PDT by billorites (freepo ergo sum)
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To: JustSayNoToNannies

But of course. There can be no Drug War without lies.


4 posted on 04/08/2013 10:27:14 AM PDT by Wolfie
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To: JustSayNoToNannies

Alex Stevens is an interesting critter to say the least.

I’ll let others do their own research. LOL

FREE THE WORLD MAN!!


5 posted on 04/08/2013 10:33:38 AM PDT by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: cripplecreek

On twitter

https://twitter.com/AlexStevensKent

personal website

http://www.kent.ac.uk/sspssr/staff/academic/stevens.html


6 posted on 04/08/2013 10:44:50 AM PDT by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: Mr. K; billorites

Would health problems be an issue?


7 posted on 04/08/2013 11:08:51 AM PDT by V_TWIN (obama=where there's smoke, there's mirrors)
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To: JustSayNoToNannies

When you legalize/decriminalize weed, you make it currency.
Hell, legal prescribed pain-killers are currency now.

Where there is currency, there is crime.


8 posted on 04/08/2013 11:15:06 AM PDT by txhurl
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To: JustSayNoToNannies

Great.

Five pot shops have opened within five miles of my house in the last three years. The parking lots are wonderful, wholesome places, not at all full of trash and trashy people. I don’t know why more people don’t let their kids ride bikes to the 7/11 next door to buy bubble gum.

They attract the same peaceful, hard-working element as the strip club. But there’s only one of those locally. The multiple pot shops have added nothing but value to the neighborhood. Hey, single ladies — there’s a fat guy in house slippers and a wife-beater with tats standing in front of the 7/11 next door to the pot shop shoving microwave burritos into his gob with both hands — what are you waiting for?!

And the rash of break-ins and stuff swiped from cars? There’s no proof whatsoever that there’s a connection! At least they’re not violent! And anyway, even if someone did steal the bench off your front porch, why, it’s a small price to pay for the freedom to get wasted, you fascist!

Pot is awesome, and kids should be encouraged to smoke “responsibly” starting age seven. Anyone who says otherwise hates America.


9 posted on 04/08/2013 11:19:22 AM PDT by Blue Ink
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To: txhurl
When you legalize/decriminalize weed, you make it currency.
Hell, legal prescribed pain-killers are currency now.

Where there is currency, there is crime.

And illegal things can't serve as currency?

10 posted on 04/08/2013 11:20:21 AM PDT by JustSayNoToNannies ("The Lord has removed His judgments against you" - Zep. 3:15)
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To: Blue Ink
There is no evidence that pot shops don't simply relocate crime rather than increase it. I'm all for zoning restrictions on them - as far from residential areas as the residents vote for.
11 posted on 04/08/2013 11:23:06 AM PDT by JustSayNoToNannies ("The Lord has removed His judgments against you" - Zep. 3:15)
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To: cripplecreek
I see nothing at either link that invalidates his conclusions in this article. Do you?
12 posted on 04/08/2013 11:26:14 AM PDT by JustSayNoToNannies ("The Lord has removed His judgments against you" - Zep. 3:15)
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To: Wolfie

Execute anyone that uses it!


13 posted on 04/08/2013 11:27:20 AM PDT by dalereed
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To: V_TWIN
Would health problems be an issue?

No more than with alcohol or tobacco. Why do you ask?

14 posted on 04/08/2013 11:27:33 AM PDT by JustSayNoToNannies ("The Lord has removed His judgments against you" - Zep. 3:15)
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To: dalereed
Execute anyone that uses it!

Over 40% of Americans have used marijuana - do you really think executing them all is a good idea?

15 posted on 04/08/2013 11:28:21 AM PDT by JustSayNoToNannies ("The Lord has removed His judgments against you" - Zep. 3:15)
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To: JustSayNoToNannies

ABSOLUTELY!!!

Everyone I know of,including relatives, who ever used it belongs either in prison or 6 feet under!!!!


16 posted on 04/08/2013 11:30:18 AM PDT by dalereed
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To: billorites

Disproved by marijuana use among gang-bangers.


17 posted on 04/08/2013 11:34:50 AM PDT by AppyPappy (You never see a massacre at a gun show.)
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To: dalereed
Everyone I know of,including relatives, who ever used it belongs either in prison or 6 feet under!!!!

I'm against a 20-fold increase in taxpayer expenditure on prisons - but then, I'm a conservative.

18 posted on 04/08/2013 11:34:59 AM PDT by JustSayNoToNannies ("The Lord has removed His judgments against you" - Zep. 3:15)
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To: AppyPappy
marijuana use among gang-bangers.

Proves only that people who are violent when unstoned are sometimes also violent when stoned.

19 posted on 04/08/2013 11:37:26 AM PDT by JustSayNoToNannies ("The Lord has removed His judgments against you" - Zep. 3:15)
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To: JustSayNoToNannies

I want to know whats gonna happen to me...lol


20 posted on 04/08/2013 11:37:28 AM PDT by V_TWIN (obama=where there's smoke, there's mirrors)
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