Of course I read them.
You did not record that in January 1861 imports rose 23.5% which means that as of April (end of March report) year-to-date imports were down overall about 15%.
That does not sound to me like "panic time", especially since the whole idea of a protectionist Morrill Tariff was to increase US manufacturing and reduce foreign imports.
Sure, by August, imports were down 50% & more, but that was well after war began, in April 1861.
PeaRidge: "Read this comment: 'In 1860,...the secession crisis was reflected in a business panic,' wrote historian James A. Rawley."
Your link refers to events after the election on November 6, 1860, which certainly had nothing to do with the Morrill Tariff.
But what rusty's numbers show is that this November 1860 "secession crisis" on Wall Street did not really hit Main Street imports until well into 1861.
But if you are just trying to make the simple point that New Yorkers were upset and afraid of consequences from Deep South secession, then of course, you're correct in that.
Was there something else you want to add?
PeaRidge: "Do you realize how utterly stupid that comment is....with all due respect.
I would suggest you go backward about 25 posts and read the commentary of the newspapers, businessmen, and politicians....all of whom realized the meaning of the Confederate Tariff rates relative to Morrill."
With all due respect...
Do you realize how "utterly stupid" it is to assume that 1860 era Republicans were overly concerned with opinions of their Northern Democrat countrymen?
The simple facts here are that protectionist Morrill Tariff passed the House in 1860 because Republicans wanted it, and neither Southerners nor Northern Democrats were solidly opposed.
But Morrill was not finally passed and signed into law until March 1861, and is not mentioned in any official secessionist document.
Sure, doubtless there were disruptions in the period after November 1860, but how much was caused by fears of secession resulting in financial disruptions, how much by fears of war, then by actual war's blockade, embargo and disruptions, and how much by the effects from Morrill's rise in tariffs, I doubt if we can say.
But none of this, imho, was the main concern on Lincoln's mind after inauguration on March 4, 1861.
What Lincoln was hoping to do then was preserve as much of the Union as possible, while maintaining peace, if possible.
Failing that, then Lincoln wanted to make certain that if war came, it was started by Confederates.
So Morrill was not the driving force.
How wrong can you be and still not realize it?
By late March, 1860, and upon the realization that the Morrill tariff would make them uncompetitive, greed and fear of economic loss was propelling the Federal government toward coercion of the seceded states.
The New York Herald said:
“ The combined effects of these two tariffs must be to desolate the entire North, to stop its importations, cripple its commerce and turn its capital into another channel; for, although there is specie now lying idle in New York to the amount of nearly forty millions of dollars, and as much more in the other large cities, waiting for an opportunity of investment, it will be soon scattered all over the country, wherever the most available means of using it are presented, and it will be lost to the trade of this city and the other Northern states.
“There is nothing to be predicted of the combination of results produced by the Northern and Southern tariffs but general ruin to the commerce of the Northern confederacy… The tariff of the South opens its ports upon fair and equitable terms to the manufacturers of foreign countries, which it were folly to suppose will not be eagerly availed of; which the stupid and suicidal tariff just adopted by the Northern Congress imposes excessive and almost prohibitory duties upon the same articles.
“Thus the combination of abolition fanatics and stockjobbers in Washington has reduced the whole North to the verge of ruin, which nothing can avert unless the administration recognizes the necessity of at once calling an extra session of Congress to repeal the Morrill tariff, and enact such measures as may bring back the seceded States, and reconstruct the Union upon terms of conciliation, justice and right.”
The results of the secession and the impact on trade were reported in the Richmond Dispatch of May 23, 1861:
“The total amount of imports at the port of New York for the week ending on the 18th, was $2,328,479; for the same week in 1860, $5,517,58 . This was a decrease of 57%.
“Since 1st January, $66,424,138; for the same period last year, $91,215,143. The decline was 30% at that point.
In March while the furious clamor continued in the newspapers, and Lincoln and the cabinet labored on their secret plans, a Charleston citizen was quoted on the state of affairs in Charleston harbor.
“Taken altogether, this is a most singular state of war….Fort Sumter is surrounded by batteries prepared to batter or shell it….Nearly the like state of things exists as to Fort Pickens.
“The officers of the fort and the besieging Confederate army even exchange friendly visits, and dine at each other’s quarters.
“Two different governments are now existing, and the new one completely organized and established.
“Peaceful relations have continued between the two peoples, despite the violent animosity of the communities, and still more of individuals of the two sections.
“While every participation and aid of secession in the South is denounced in the North as treason….and even so declared judicially, Southern and Northern men freely visit and travel any where in the other section, without being interfered with by any legal restraint or penalty
“The mails are uninterrupted, and the railway trains, express transportation and telegraph lines are operating normally.”
The point of the writer was that despite the clamor in the newspapers and among politicians, that the citizenry was experiencing peace.
The leaders in the South knew that there would only be two choices open to the federal government politicians who had always maintained a permanent monopoly on tax revenues.
Either they would meet the South’s low tax rates and compete in a peaceful free-market which would mean a drastic cut in government revenue, power and special interest benefits.
Or they would suffer financial losses, corporate and national bankruptcy. Not a likely scenario.
Or they would trump up some fake reasons to go to war and attempt to destroy the competitor.