“And as a voting block FR is so tiny it’s irrelevant...”
Irrelevancy is in the eye of the beholder, and in the sum-total of the stay at homes. I do agree with you that many said they would and did not (stay at Home).
Perhaps the larger stay at home group were the Christians who would not vote for a Mormon.
On the other hand, I know a few really liberal types who stayed home because they would not vote for the Bummer, but would also not vote for a Republican.
The Republican vote for Romney in Arkansas was actually higher (even adjusting for population growth) than Bush’s Arkansas vote in 2004.
The Republican vote for Romney was down .03% percentage points in Mississippi compared to McCain.
The whole “Christians won’t vote for a Mormon” thing seems like a total non-factor.