Is China Mobilizing For A War With Japan?

Zerohedge.com ^ | February 10, 2013 | Tyler Durden

[Former Proud Canadian]

We don't know if it merely a coincidence that a story has emerged discussing a Chinese mobilization in response to the ongoing territorial feud with Japan over the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands (and the proximal massive gas field) the very week that China celebrates its new year (and days after news that a Chinese warship was very close to firing on a Japanese destroyer). We don't know how much of the story is based in reality, and how much may be propaganda or furthering someone's agenda. What we do know is that the source of the story: offshore-based, Falun Gong-affiliated NTDTV has historically been a credible source of information that the China communist party desperately tries to censor, such as breaking the news of the SARS epidemic in 2003 some three weeks before China publicly admitted it. Its motto is "to bring truthful and uncensored information into and out of China." If that is indeed the case, and its story of major troop movements and mobilization of various types of military vehicles and artillery into the Fujian and Zhejian provinces, bordering the East China Sea and closest to the Diaoyu islands, is accurate, then hostilities between China and Japan may be about to take a major turn for the worse.

[Mister Da]

You make some good points about the difficulties China would face in a war with Japan. I don't disagree.

There are other things to consider.

Chinese have a deep hatred for Japan, which was essentially spared answering for for the many atrocities Japanese soldiers committed in China during WWII.

Japan is relatively weak & fragile as compared to China. Japan lives or dies based on import/export. China does not. Japan is a small target, its infrastructure fairly easy to cripple. Hit a few of nuclear plants in Japan, the country is lights out & immediately a real bad place to raise kids. Not so much so for huge China. Thousands of missiles raining on Japan would cripple her high tech economy. High rise building are useless without power. Leadership in China have the luxury of ignoring loses until they are directly affected.

Too, Chinese leadership can start a war tomorrow with no one’s permission but their own, but the US doesn't necessarily work that way. If you saw my earlier reply, you know there is no guarantee that Obama would do ANYTHING militarily, & the chances are high he would want to talk about it, for years if necessary, rather than have a war with his banker.

Beyond all that, China doesn't need to invade Japan, only bomb it into submission. I seriously doubt China wants to annex Japan, just give them some serious payback while asserting total control of the China Sea.

How many countries in the West can AFFORD to stop trading with China, not the least of whom is the USA? How many can afford trade disruption in the China Sea for months or years? How many of those same countries can afford for the US government to go bankrupt, based on China dumping US debt, causing a worldwide debt & currency crisis?

How many Western leaders do we have that are willing to do the right & honorable thing, no matter the cost?

Bear in mind that once the US & China exchange fire, the ENTIRETY of the USA becomes an instant & tempting target. Just one Chinese nuke or even a few conventional warheads landing in the USA would throw this country into panic, chaos, & anarchy. How many would venture into Manhattan, & a dozen other major cities to live & work, vs. how many would be leaving in droves for lesser targets? China's vulnerability in this regard, being essentially a dictatorship, is much less, nor is massive loss of life as problematic.

[Former Proud Canadian]

I think your statement is less true today than it was a decade or two ago. The Chinese have a real need for energy, much is imported in the form of coal and oil. I think the Chinese leadership really does fear its people, that's why they are sending so much of their personal wealth overseas.

In a real shooting war available fuel and food supplies would be directed to the PLAAF and the PLAN. Trade would dry up, meaning factories making cheap consumer goods for export would be shut down. So, now you have a large urban population with no work, no food and no fuel.

[Mouton]

I have a pretty good picture of the military posture of both those nations you cite and agree with you as to what they are. Interestingly both have made overtures to the US to reuse bases in their countries (as a deterrent to Chinese expansion.)

BTW, I seriously doubt China would attack Japan beyond a plan to remove their “navy” from the playing field. Japan is no military threat to them and has financially been a disaster since the late 80s. Those islands in the south china sea around which oil is in abundance is the prize China wants more so than even a reunited Taiwan IMO. Someone suggested, not you, that Japan may have nukes...there is no chance in hell they do unless they were supplied by the US and I don’t see that as ever happening.
China holds the cards here, a minimized US pacific presence, regardless of the “lets pivot to the Pacific latest obsurd strategy coming from DC”, and little opposition in the Pacific including Australia means the game rules are set by them, not the US, not SEATO, not the UN nor Japan. Hopefully they use constraint rather than muscle. China could live with a loss of 100 million people, the US cringes when someone gets hit by a car.

[PapaBear3625]

What would we do? Likely nothing. What would Japan do? They are a geriatric, stagnant country. The Chinese may be willing to toss those dice.

That may be a big mistake. Japan's culture has always been a very martial one, where death is preferable to losing face.

[PIF]

“They’ve got a score to settle with Japan, and it goes back a bit further than our memory.”

More recently after WWII, the Chinese wanted to kill every male over the age of 10, turn the rest of the male children into eunuchs, take all remaining Japanese as slave labor, take all the females and sterilize them then use them as prostitutes.

If you think that meant the total annihilation and humiliation of the Japanese, you’d be right.

And that was just for the millions of Chinese the Japanese killed during WWII.

[Zeneta]

Yes, it is less true today.

I think the Chinese leadership does in fact fear it’s people. Their people are getting way ahead of their ability to control them.

If you, were a tried and true communist, and you started losing control of your populace, how would you restore your authority?

Economics be damned. That’s not important right now.

Protests?

First order of business would be complete isolation from the outside world. The protests and crackdown never happened if no one sees them.

This could be a tipping point.

Can the Chinese leaders put the genie back in the bottle?

If they don’t, they will have presided over their own demise.

For the hard liners it becomes a test of their mettle. A test of their willingness to do whatever it takes to maintain the supremacy of the state.

Remember the video of Saddam Hussein calling out “Traitors” to be executed? Recall how quickly he found support.

[Strategerist]

The linked article mostly talks about artillery and tanks, both of which would we worthless against Japan.

[Strategerist]

BTW, I seriously doubt China would attack Japan beyond a plan to remove their “navy” from the playing field. Japan is no military threat to them and has financially been a disaster since the late 80s.

The Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force is quite capable of defeating the PLAN in a straight-up fight, without help from anyone else. Across the whole of their force, their level of technology is better and they're certainly better-trained. There's a high danger of a VERY embarrassing defeat for the Chinese in any conflict at any level.

Don't be fooled by the name; the MSDF is probably the second-most powerful navy in the world right now.

[JerseyanExile]

This. While the Japanese might lack the ability to project power across the globe like the British, French, and Russian navies, on a more local level, the Japanese Navy is an very powerful force.

[JerseyanExile]

I’m a bit skeptical that what’s in this report indicates to the possibility of China attacking Japan. What use are multi-mile long columns of tanks and artillery in what would be a purely naval conflict? You aren’t going to land those sorts of forces on the miserable little rocks that are the Senkakus.

[Former Proud Canadian]

Yup

[Former Proud Canadian]

I believe the author assumes a Chinese attack on the Senkakus are an attack on Japan.

I don't know what China has in mind, but it wouldn't take much to land a battalion of Chinese marines. I think some aircraft from the mainland have the combat radius to reach the islands. Chinese subs and surface ships could form a cordon around the landing force. I don't know if there is enough flat land to build an airstrip, maybe that's what all the "survey ships" are doing there. Land the marines, build a strip, base some fighters, and its all over.

The question is, what will the US do. The US is treaty bound to support the Japanese claim on these islands, not that that means anything. So far, all Obama has done is to park the carriers in their home ports for "budgetary reasons".

[Forward the Light Brigade]

Any war between Japan and China would be the results of misadventure rather than planing. China would see a short war with Japan over some Islands as a way to unify her people and show herself as a “great power”. A few battles at sea where they would use drones and rockets and subs, maybe an invasion of the Disputed Islands. North Korea would neutralize South Korea. Japan still recovering from an Earthquake and tidal wave—a single high energy burst high above Tokyo will kill their computers. A few merchant ships might go down, but China could get a cease-fire at the UN—Obama could broker a deal—get a second Peace prize and all would be well. The East is Red!