Why The Manufacturing Jobs Are Not Coming Back

Zero Hedge ^

[Perdogg]

There are a plethora of reasons underpinning the fact that manufacturing jobs are not coming back to the USA. Perhaps the simplest is purely economic. As McKinsey notes in a recent report, manufacturings' role in job creation shifts over time as manufacturing's share of output falls and as companies invest in technologies and process improvements that raise productivity.

A critical finding is that as manufacturing's share of national output falls, so does its share of employment - following the inverted 'U' curve below. Manufacturing job losses in advanced economies have been concentrated in labor-intensive and highly tradable (read globalizable) industries such as apparel and electronics assembly. Thanks to the increased productivity and a 'high' credit-enabled standard-of-living, the US has simply priced itself out of the global manufacturing business (and so is China as its GDP per capita rises). Unless Americans are willing to put the twinkie (and iPad) down, those jobs will continue to bleed overseas (to India based on the chart below) building the ever-more self-fulfilling vicious circle of a nation dependent on state-aid to survive as only the 'unlucky' few remain employed.

[muawiyah]

They could spend more time fasting and in prayer. Always a favorite back in Medieval times.

[cynwoody]

What took 1000 Americans to manufacture in 1950 now takes less than 170.

www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/others/people/research_resources/strauss_william/05_31_assessing_manufacturing.pdf

[DH]

Manufacturing jobs will NEVER return to our country for several basic reasons:

A legal system out of control. No tort reform.

The EPA.

OSHA.

Unions and the total support for them from our Congress.

The lack of employees who have the skills needed and the work ethic that will make them productive.

The fact that we have gone from a free country to a new social utopia controlled by Socialists, Communists, and Marxists.

There are many more reasons that manufacturing won’t be back but it all relates to the ability of the business to actually wade through all of the regulations, legal minefields, and fines and taxes to make a profit.

[DH]

Tell me why the Empire State Building took 11 months from start to absolute finish?

Why would it take 5 to 6 years today to do the same thing?

[xzins]

Consumers buy “things”. Things are manufactured someplace.

It’s silly to turn ones back on those jobs, because that are literally thousands upon thousands of “things” to consume.

[xzins]

Consumers buy “things”. Things are manufactured someplace.

It’s silly to turn ones back on those jobs, because there are literally thousands upon thousands of “things” to consume.

[waynesa98]

So read the replies and not one put together all the reasons MFG is about to explode in the USA. MFG used to be labor and energy intensive. The robots now being deployed are removing the people from the MFG line. Unions are screwed, they have made sure they can not have a job. The new bots can thread a needle the first time every time. 3d printing is a major disruptive tech. Now here is the big deal, fracking. USA nat gas cost is about 1/7th of europe. Since energy is and will be even more of an important MFG input the USA’s energy advantage becomes huge.

And all of this has nothing to do with the eminent implosion of china’s economy.

[nascarnation]

Yes the operation I retired from turns out more auto parts today with 1500 employees than it did in 1982 with 4000.

[muawiyah]

On the contrary, mechanization, automation, computerization, robotics and improved work methods have much more influence on the need for workers than the inability of a company’s lawyers to read and understand government rules.

[Cringing Negativism Network]

Belated “pong”.

[muawiyah]

Today's tall buildings take longer to build for several reasons ~ least of all government regulation. First off they use less metal, less concrete, less stone, more glass, more lightweight ceramics, more aluminum, etc.

They are designed to closer tolerances to minimize structural members, and to better control stresses.

They are of higher quality, cost less, and will last far longer ~ even though they'll be easier to dismantle if need be.

Planners and Architects know these things.

Oh, and the need for architects is down ~ really down! Even design engineers ~ computerization has really hurt that profession.

Then there's the need for tall buildings ~ 2 stories, tops, and there's plenty of land for that, plus the employees get enormous parking lots so they can drive to work and avoid erratic bus service.

[muawiyah]

Further mechanization, automation, computerization, robotics and improved work methods will almost guarantee that the United States becomes the world's lowest cost producer of everything it wishes to produce.

We will also have a great deal of difficulty with our unemployment rate ~ and will be looking back at today's functional 20% rate as being a Golden Age of workers!

We could probably become a nation of OWNERS ~ do that as an occupation.

[cynwoody]

Tell me why the Empire State Building took 11 months from start to absolute finish?

Why would it take 5 to 6 years today to do the same thing?

And the Pentagon took sixteen months (1941-09-11 to 1943-01-15). When do you suppose DHS's new $3.4b HQ, ground broken September 2009 and situated on the grounds of the former Government Hospital for the Insane, will get finished?

It comes down to government regulation gumming up the works. And to unions standing in the way of improvement.

You may have heard, the Chinese build 30-story hotels in 15 days. They work smart. They manufacture the building off-site, and then they assemble the prefabricated modules onsite.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broad_Sustainable_Building
www.broad.com:8089/english/down/en_kj.pdf

[Elsie]

Good!

Are they NON-union?

[Elsie]

High volume production cost justifies expensive robots and human programmers.

I wonder what the breakeven point is between robots and humans?

[Elsie]

...computerization has really hurt that profession.

Hurt?

[waynesa98]

The major influence on MFG is energy. Assuming the corruptocrats lose and we can exploit our coal natgas & oil were poised to f**k the ME especially the saudis. We’re exporting fracked LNG to the EU @ $16 vs $1.6-2.4 non liquefied us consumption.

So going forward, educating for industry requirements means jettisoning the government education model for something like a communal /home school/ Kahn Academy model hybrid. On an interesting note this will also kill the commie monopoly on higher ed as fewer students attend “Harvard” vs harvard-online.edu for minimal to free. An interesting dynamic going on is the ivy embrace of low cost to free online ed. What the corrupticrats don’t get is the value of attending “harvard” will be proven to be networking, much like the Japanese college system, not the info imparted on the heads full of mush. This intern as, the economy becomes more info/knowledge based, will make, the old boys club less relevant. This will get “skills” not relationship, back to the income equation. Because libs want wealth taxed, they will ensure the less productive capital rich are forced out of the USA thus losing the ability to fund the corrupicrats, and influence policy.