A ‘fiscal cliff’ deal is near: Here are the details

Washington Post - Wonkblog ^ | 17 Dec 12 | Erza Klein

[SkyPilot]

All at once, a

[Buckeye McFrog]

My sister-in-law is a big atheist liberal, who was shocked that her own health care coverage was skyrocketing. Amazing.
My TRICARE premiums are up more than 15%, and will probably quadruple in the next five years.

In five years the public will be screaming bloody murder for the Government to "do something". And the "something" will be Single Payer. All by design.

[SkyPilot]

- No increase in rates, only closing loopholes

There is a rate increase coming, according to the blog leak.

Boehner offered a rate increase at those households making over $1 Million a year. I bet the compromise will be $500K for households.

The Speaker knows this screws small businesses, but the GOP lost the fall elections. Right now, we have no momentum, no public mandate, we don't have the Senate, we don't have the White House, and we don't have the rest of the Executive branch agencies (FBI, DoD, Justice, Labor Dept, etc).

There won't be any "cuts" to SS/Medicare. They are proposing to slow COLAs by tying the pittance of COLA increases to another index. They play these games now anyway! There was a long time where SS recipients didn't get a COLA for 2 years. The Govt said it was "because there isn't any inflation." I am not joking.

[rockrr]

You mean where he says, “It’s a mad house! A mad house!”

right? lol

[thouworm]

I don’t like the body language in that picture. The Won is looking too smug, and Boner is looking beat.

But...isn't that always the way it is (except when Boehner is being wined, dined, and flattered).

Bribed or blackmailed?

Fire Boehner. It's hard to imagine any one worse for the job.

[thouworm]

So Obama gets what he wants (taxing the rich more and keeping tax cuts for the middle class) and the Reps take the blame for reducing benefits to old people and future retirees. Such a deal. The Dems will use this in 2014 to get back control of the House. Such a deal.

That exactly what it looks like to me too.

See post 33:

Might as well not pay the cost of living at all. Just received a notice from SS that COLA will go up 1.7%. Big whup! Meanwhile, my Medicare supplement premium is going up 15%.

Meanwhile, what is the REAL inflation in the cost of living?

[kabar]

Might as well not pay the cost of living at all. Just received a notice from SS that COLA will go up 1.7%. Big whup! Meanwhile, my Medicare supplement premium is going up 15%.

No, COLA is a big deal and one that will cause lots of heartburn for the Reps. No doubt the COLA will be set at some graduated scale affecting those with higher pensions more. It will cause a compression of SS benefits over time.

As someone who has a high federal pension and a small SS penison and been retired for 14 years, this will have a major impact on me depending on what is decided. Over the past 14 years I have seen my federal pension go from 81K to 110K due to COLA increases. And the 1.7% increase that came into effect on Dec 1 and will be in my January payment will add $1,870 a year to my annual pension and $156 to my monthly payment. It will more than cover my increase costs for Medicare Part B.

The Reps are going to be blamed for this reduction in benefits and the Dems will vote against it in the House making the Reps own it. In the Senate, those Dems running for reelection in 2014 will vote against it.

If this is the deal, the Dems will regain the House in 2014. How dumb can the Reps be?

[SkyPilot]

In five years the public will be screaming bloody murder for the Government to "do something". And the "something" will be Single Payer. All by design.

Pretty much.

You would think that if there was one group that deserved to not be screwed by the Federal Government, it would be war veterans.

Right?

Once protected, they are now targets. All the years of multiple deployments, danger, sacrifice, pain, and injury added up to almost zero political clout. Why?

Simple.

There are not that many veterans. There are A LOT more SS, Medicare, Medicaid, Food Stamp, and unemployment check receivers out there.

Politics is not justice. It is votes and corruption.

Veterans have been getting the shaft right and left from Obama and DC in recent years. Veterans were promised health care for life as recently as the mid-90s. After being forced into TRICARE (which gets worse by the week), Obama proposed something like a 80%-300% increase in TRICARE, depending on your retired rank.

Even Republicans acknowledged the goal of Obama was to force veterans into the ObamaCare "exchanges" first so as to entrench them.

[fatnotlazy]

” In order to “give” away “FREE” health care for all of Obama’s do-nothings, everyone’s health care premiums are going up.”

***

Yup! My point though is that the SS COLA increase doesn't even begin to cover the Medicare increase. And the Medicare increase is just one cost going up next year. I have several increases,in other areas to deal with. And who knows what other increases are coming our way when the fiscal cliff “compromise” is reached. I'll bet there are going to be a ton of hidden costs we won't find out about till much later.

_____________

” My sister-in-law is a big atheist liberal, who was shocked that her own health care coverage was skyrocketing. Amazing.”

***

I can't wait for my friends and relatives, who are Obama true believers, find out how much that “free” health care will cost. If course, it won't he Obama’s fault. It will be those “greedy” insurance companies

[mrsmith]

“have to get Nancy pelosi on board”

Yeah, if the deal is like this it will have to be passed without many Republican votes.

Frankly though I don’t expect this is the deal.

[SkyPilot]

I think the Republicans would get blamed no matter what.

We both know that.

Over the past 14 years I have seen my federal pension go from 81K to 110K due to COLA increases.

You must have qualified for the older system.

[Mouton]

I wrote this to my “representative” today”

“It is my understanding the speaker has caved in and will add the debt extention to the “deal” with Obama regarding the fiscal cliff. This guy has marginalized conservative republicans and definitely those who consider themselves “tea party” followers. IMO, no deal would be better than agreeing to everything Obama wants such as increases in taxes on a small group plus giving away the last chip in budget negotiations the House has: debt limits. So, this has to stop. If this guy is intent and joining Crist as a dem, get rid of him by removing the speakership. Under House rules, the Speaker does not have to be an active house member. I suggest nominating someone like Gingrich to be speaker as at least he can articulate a position in a thoughtful manner, something Boehner has never been able to do.”

For all the good it will do!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[SkyPilot]

Meanwhile, what is the REAL inflation in the cost of living?

Well, the Feds don't count Gas, Food, or Healthcare when computing COLA raises.

So, you see....there is no inflation! Aren't you happier now?

[upchuck]

1.7% COLA. That is a crime!! Doesn’t even come close to covering increases in the cost of food. Let alone everything else.

I informally track what I spend at the grocery store. 2012 is not over but it looks like my cost of food will be up around 14% for 2012.

My Medcare C supplement went up 16% and Med D is up 20% plus they raised the deductible again.

1.7% HA!

IMHO, if they want to “cut” Social Security and Medicare they should raise eligibility age.

They want instead to cut the COLA? Sure, go ahead. How much of the generous 1.7% are they gonna cut? Even if they eliminated it completely it wouldn’t amount to a hill of beans compared to the trouble we’ve got.

[tbw2]

The COLA equation needs to be changed; it was artificially inflated in the past for growth in productivity, not prices.

[kabar]

The Speaker knows this screws small businesses, but the GOP lost the fall elections.

If this is the conclusion of the Re[s, no wonder we are called the The Stupid Party. It was a status quo election. The GOP retained control of the House. Obama won with 51% of the vote--certainly no mandate.

If the GOP surrenders unilaterally, they deserve to lose control of the House and be the permanent minority party. They are the ones who will be blamed for cutting benefits for SS. Obama will say that he was forced into the deal trying to protect tax cuts for the middle class and making sure that the wealthy pay their fair share.

There won't be any "cuts" to SS/Medicare. They are proposing to slow COLAs by tying the pittance of COLA increases to another index. They play these games now anyway! There was a long time where SS recipients didn't get a COLA for 2 years. The Govt said it was "because there isn't any inflation." I am not joking.

It is a big cut to SS and federal pensions (including the military) if they reduce COLAs. There is an established formula for determining COLAs. It had nothing to do with who was in the WH. History of Automatic Cost-Of-Living Adjustments

Latest Cost-of-Living Adjustment

[SkyPilot]

From your link:

"Locked in trillion dollar tax revenue increase. Promises, promises on spending cuts."

Yeah, that looks about right, however, Boehner needs some sort of "Entitlement" reform in order to get it to pass the House. Charles Krauthammer said the same thing yesterday.

He also said this is almost a "military rout" of the Republicans. He's right.

We got our butts handed to us in November. There is no way Bath House Barry should have won that election, and no way Democrats should have increased their numbers in the Senate.

But, they did.

Was there massive vote fraud? Absolutely.

Are there now Millions of Illegals, Lazy Thugs, and Government Takers who now will do anything in order to get their check?

You bet. This isn't Ronald Reagan's American anymore.

Our nation, our culture, our morality, and our freedoms are in rapid, rapid decline.

We are witnesses to one of the greatest collapses of a world power in human history. And all in the short span of a generation.

[kabar]

I think the Republicans would get blamed no matter what. We both know that

Yes, but you don't compromise your principles to accommodate a bad deal. Allowing Obama to frame the issue that he is being forced by the GOP to cut SS and perhaps Medicare is not a winning issue politically. It is lose-lose for the GOP. We are not going to get real entitlement reform and could very well lose the House in 2014 because of it.

[SkyPilot]

They are the ones who will be blamed for cutting benefits for SS.

Again, they would have been blamed either way. If there was no deal, the coming losses of 2 million jobs due to Sequestration would be blamed on them. The gutting of the military would be blamed on them because they voted for Sequestration 18 months ago. They would be blamed when the debt ceiling expired and SS checks were (once again) threatened to not be direct deposited because of them (even if the House authorized the funding in a seperate line).

The GOP cannot win, the new media won't let them.

The COLA adjustment was all they could get.

Yes, there is a formula in place now, but even with that there was no COLA increase until last year. The Govt saved Billions by cooking the books and not issuing COLAs even when there was real inflation.

Will the "deal" make COLAs (for SS, Fed pensions, and military pensions) even smaller?

Absolutely!

[SkyPilot]

Yes, but you don't compromise your principles to accommodate a bad deal. Allowing Obama to frame the issue that he is being forced by the GOP to cut SS and perhaps Medicare is not a winning issue politically. It is lose-lose for the GOP. We are not going to get real entitlement reform and could very well lose the House in 2014 because of it.

Perhaps, and I would lean towards your argument.

The truth is, the GOP had pretty much lost this "negotiation" before it ever started. It lost it the Wed after the election in November.

Period.

The option for the House is to allow the fiscal cliff to happen, which will trigger a major recession, gut the military, kill about 2 million jobs, and will accelerate the economic death spiral.

Look, my hope is in Jesus Christ. I don't put any faith in our government anymore.

[Pollster1]

The “cliff” is far better than the deal. You’ve got to know when to walk away from the table, know when to run.