Posted on 12/06/2012 5:26:53 AM PST by Kaslin
Somewhere, there’s a whiplash lawyer who runs his law office out of a van down by the river who watches the congressional Republicans attempt to negotiate the fiscal cliff crisis and has to turn his head away. John Boehner and his inept coterie of GOP establishment cronies have made every mistake in the book. It’s professionally embarrassing.
Frankly, if these hacks were my associates, they’d be on a street corner with signs reading “Will litigate for food.”
Congress is famously full of lawyers, but what people don’t understand is that it is really full of bad lawyers. Good lawyers tend not to want to take the pay cut. And the current crop of Republican leaders negotiate like bad lawyers do, which is great for President Obama. He’s giddy, and I know the feeling. When I face opponents like Boehner’s bunch at a mediation, I start checking out new 6-series convertibles on my iPhone.
A good negotiator, first and foremost, understands his client’s goals. This seems pretty basic – you want to know what the people you represent want to achieve by negotiating. However, this concept seems lost on the GOP.
Their clients – the voters who elected them – were pretty clear. No tax increases. Period. After all, not one Republican congressman was elected on a platform promising “I will raise taxes in order to help Obama morph America into Greece.” Well, maybe some of the ones from New England did, but that’s beside the point.
The client doesn’t want tax increases. This implies that the GOP should – wait for it – not support tax increases.
Naturally, the first thing the GOP does is roll over. Then to compound it, Lindsay and Saxby smarm up the Sunday morning talk shows with sanctimonious talk about how they are so patriotic that they are compelled to break their solemn pledge to their constituents never to raise taxes.
So, having not just discarded the client’s intent, the congressional GOP then rubbed its clients’ collective nose in it. There’s nothing that sets you up for failure like setting your sights on a goal that, to your client, constitutes failure.
Besides knowing what the client wants – and not utterly ignoring it – the skilled negotiator next figures out what the other side wants. Negotiations are rarely just about the putative subject. In a lawsuit, sure there’s money, but there is also often emotions – anger, pride, and so forth. All of these play a role. And sometimes, there is another objective entirely.
Here, it’s pretty clear that Barack Obama is not merely trying to get the Republicans to raise taxes. Additional fuel for the bonfire consuming America’s culture of self-sufficiency is a sweet bonus, but he has his sights on something more.
Obama is trying to get the GOP to commit suicide so that it will be unable to oppose him. And the GOP is responding to this attempt to disembowel it by handing its enemy the figurative samurai sword.
Obama sees that the kind of betrayal the GOP Establishment is dying to pull off will split the party and ignite an internal struggle that would make the post-1968 Democratic convention convulsions seem like a group hug. He’s not negotiating to get something. He’s negotiating to do something, and we conservatives are the ones Obama wants it done to. Moreover, he wants the GOP Establishment to do it for him.
Now, when you understand what your client wants and what your opponent wants, you are ready to form your negotiating strategy. What the GOP Establishment fails to understand is that reacting is not a strategy. Whining that the liberal media is going to be mean to you if you stay true to your principles and to your word is not a strategy. Cursing Grover Norquist for allowing you to make a promise to your constituents about never raising taxes, which helped you get elected, is not a strategy either.
A strategy focuses you on your goal, which means the congressional Republicans have no strategy because they have no goal other than to make the hurting stop.
Yet the GOP actually has several aces in the hole – the only reason they are taking the submissive role in the Fifty Shades of the Fiscal Cliff playing out before us is that they chose to assume it. Maybe Obama has a mandate, but so do they. They should be exercising it.
Their first step is to stop showing fear and to start counter-attacking. So America falls off the fiscal cliff? Who cares? Hell, a substantial number of the rich and sorta-rich are Democratic voters in blue states anyway. Let them put their money where their progressivism is. And if there’s another recession, awesome. We call that a teachable moment for America about what happens when its president is a spendaholic who would rather campaign than lead.
What about those cuts to defense? Okay. We’ll live having only exponentially more military power than our nearest competitors. And if all else fails and the bad guys invade, as Red Dawn teaches, we’ll just open up our gun safes and go all Wolverines on them.
Sound a bit, well, crazy? Unreasonable? Even scary? Good, because a skilled lawyer understands the awesome power of being the craziest, most unreasonable and scariest guy at the table. Obama is hanging tough only because he thinks – he knows – the congressional Republicans are dying to fold well before he pays any kind of price.
But what if the GOP’s offer was a two-word response beginning with the letter “F” – and what if they meant it? After all, the secret of being the unreasonable negotiator is that you can’t be bluffing, that you have to be ready to pull the pin and take the whole table out with you. In other words, the Republicans ought to be telling the President “Hey, I’ll be Thelma and you can be Louise, and we’re pedal to the metal.”
The GOP knows the worst case scenario – rates on everyone go up and sequestration. All they have to do is be willing to take the hit for longer than Obama. The GOP has an advantage – the liberal media will screw them no matter what they do. This gives them incredible freedom.
Go off the edge and then, after the mainstream media panics and David Brooks wets himself, pass a bill dropping all the rates back and send it over to Harry Reid. Now it’s the Democrat’s problem. Thirty-three senators have to run in 2014, around 20 of them Democrats. How many are going to want to vote “No” on dropping the rates back? As the election cycle begins, I estimate the number will shrink to roughly zero.
In other words, turn the tables on the Democrats. Split them. They have the most to lose, not the GOP. If the congressional GOP loses this fight, that’s just a dog biting a man. But if Obama loses it, that’s a man biting a dog.
This is the final lesson. A sharp lawyer takes a tough situation and turns it to his advantage, while a hack takes an advantage and turns it into a tough situation. With a little skill, the GOP could not only get what it wants tax-wise but also turn the tables, setting the Democrats at each others’ wattled throats and neutering Obama.
After all, isn’t crushing progressive dreams really what the GOP should be all about?
All it takes is a little guts and some wiles. Come on congressional GOP – make that whiplash lawyer proud.
In fact we know exactly how this guy's plan would play out from the FICA tax cut fiasco exactly a year ago
1) House Republicans listen to this guy and say ‘ taxes on the middle class will go up unless we get a full extension, for all that income above $250K too. We will not extend them without the others. We dont leave the job producers behind. We won the election.”
2) In January taxes go up (assuming it gets that far)
3) Obama gets on TV and Townhalls telling middle class voters that their taxes are going up because Republicans once again are putting ‘the vrich’ ahead of them.
4) MSM hounds Republicans asking them if they are happy they ‘raised taxes’ on the middle class
5) House Republicans get flooded in a tidal wave of angry emails and phone calls from those who voted for them.
They try to go home for a visit and there are angly mobs around their house with signs
“I am sorry I voted for you. You raised my taxes you lying #%%$$”, many are white and 50 + obviously not ACORN.
6) The stock Market tanks
7) House Republicans even the most ‘conservative’ go to Bohner and say “WE made a big mistake. We need to cut those taxes (under$250K income) and put this behind us. My voters want to kill me” just as they did with last years FICA.
8) The House quietly passes the extension in secret just as they did FICA last February.
9) Obama signs it declaring that the Rs finally saw reason
10) The stock market recovers some just because the panic is over sand no one knows that the resulting Obama tax increases hurt the stock market because they think house Rs crashed it and O saved it.
11) Obama gets credit for saving the economy. AGAIN.
12) House Republicans dont challenge O again for the next two years. So the Republican party melts down in civil war. Dems bayonette the R wounded.
13) In 2014 election Reid and Pelosi get back the same numbers they got in 2009.
14) January 2015 Congess passes a bill making Obama King. (no more filibuster to stop it) Republicans blame voter fraud.
Or does anyone think middle class voters will act any differently than they did a year ago on FICA with that coming tax increase?
they will challenge Bohner as Speaker?
Except for #14, that’s a pretty realistic prediction of how this plays out.
Thanks bro,
I just added #14 because we need a laugh when the situation is so bad.
It worked. I laughed! LOL!
Steve Martin once had a bit like that:
I have some hostages! Yup, I took ‘em because that’s what people do these days.
I have my demands...a list of three demands that must be met before I’ll release them: 1) a getaway car, 2) $250,000 in cash and 3) I want the letter “M” stricken from the English language.
(You have to have at least one ridiculous item in there, so later if you get caught you can plead insanity. I mean, Really? “A getaway car??”)
Somebody please send every GOP Congress critter a copy of this. It has to be someone they will listen to.
You might be right. But you are making a lot of assumptions and projections. You are assuming that things are the same as they were a year ago and that there will be no changes. Pretty big assumptions. I think that the Democrats like to raise taxes. They can say whatever they like, but their actions say that they like to raise taxes. If the Democrats say that they don’t want to raise taxes on the middle class, then by their past behavior we know they are lying. They do want to raise taxes on the middle class. So, they are doing all of this for show. Here’s the plot of the show. The really nice guy Democrats drag the mean old Republican villain out in front of the audience and give a speech to the audience about how mean the Republicans are and how they, the Democrats, really want to help the middle class audience by raising taxes on the rich. After this show comes the next show where the Democrats drag the mean old Republican villain out again and give a speech to the middle class audience about how Republicans messed everything up and now the Democrats, against their better nature, will have to raise taxes on the middle class and then have the middle class audience boo and hiss the Republicans. The Democrats control the theater, the media. So how do the Republicans change this? They can stay off the stage. They can build another theater. They can not recite their scripted lines. They can throw a smoke bomb. There’s always options. But when the Democrats say they want no tax increase on the middle class, we know they’re lying and if we follow their script, we’re going to get tomatoes thrown at us.
theres the rub aint it??? NObody is willing for their taxes to go up, regardless of what some tax sheltering billionaires might claim...
the vast majority [mid income] will bitch and moan if the rates arent extended, as you say, the pressure on the CONgress-critters would be huge, and theyd be crucified in the press...
and, the ideological battle would take a hit as well, as you cant claim that lower rates result in more *revenue* [which is demonstrable if the 'R's would bother] and simultaneously threaten millions of people with crimping their budgets, and the resulting fed *loss* as well...
pass the damn middle extension, and then keep pushing for the top % as the economy crashes...
Blame every problem for the next 4 years on those Obama tax increases
#####
You must accept that this will NEVER happen! No matter what January brings, even if it is the end of the world, it will be blamed on Republicans by pop media: the only kind of “news” dissemination that has influence with the majority of Americans.
Meanwhile back at the next campaign - every single Republican will receive the criticism that ended George Bush 41’s political career. Remember: his pledge was “no new taxes” and then one of his own advisers convinced him that a “little tax increase in order to cooperate with Congress” was a good idea.
The only thing that GHWB is remembered for is his renege on his pledge.
Nicely explained!!!
“...when the Democrats say they want no tax increase on the middle class, we know they’re lying and if we follow their script, we’re going to get tomatoes thrown at us.”
Thank you.
Where's the part where I say Republicans need to raise taxes? This is exactly what I am trying to avoid.
Not one Republican will say (admit) specifically that they will oppose tax cuts for the middle class if they cant get them for ‘the rich’ too, not even Norquist, because that would be putting gun to their own heads as far as credibility.
So what Norquist seems to be doing instead (trying to wipe out Republicans apparently) is getting on the Sunday shows threatening primary challenges using the following ‘coded language:
“ Raising taxes” is his coded message meaning cutting them for the middle class WITHOUT being able to cut-them for those fraction incomes above too, .cause that wont even get to Os desk.(probably wont get a Senate vote).
So Norquist doesn't say on the Sundays shows :
“You better not vote for that middle class tax cut bill or we will come after you”,
NO-NO,NO, because his stating his position so clearly would make him a national lepr.
Instead he says :
“You better not raise taxes or we will come after you”
Well when they have to be that dishonest you KNOW they are up to no good. Screw him on that.
I think the House leadership has already decided to pass the under $250K billl and send it to the Senate, and not pass anything else this year on the cliff, just like I been saying they must. they been leaking it out.
All this negotiating crap is just Bohner playing to the MSM and his own members.
No drama required here. House Republicans have no choice. For them to use the middle class to as shields to fight for ‘the rich’ on such a visible battle woulfd be party suicide. Obama and Pelosi would love it. The best Christmas present they ever had.
1) He says the Senate will pass an entire extension because they wont want to be seen as voting against it, which assumes that Reid must put any bill the House sends over to a vote. Yet no one can be stupid enough to believe that can they?
2) He assumes that Obama/Reid will cave because Dems will get blamed for the middle class tax increase if the House was to refuse to pass a bill with just those cuts in it.
Obama has absolutely no reason to give in and support the entire extension. He holds all the cards. Both parties know that :
1) Every poll shows that most Americans support the high end tax increases,
2) Every poll shows most Americans will blame Republicans if their taxes go up due to their inaction, not even Rasmu can cook up a poll that shows that voters want their OWN taxes raised to protect the rich from higher taxes.
Yet in spite of these serious flaws I read many comments that went :”Wow , this guy is right. If Republicans did that Obama would give in”
Its like when Rush kept saying “The polls are all rigged and Romney is really winning” and all the zombies started repeating it like it was true.
Coulter was debating Hannity on this. Hannity says "Its the principle." in an argument to block the extensions. Coulter screeches "What principle is that? Raising taxes on most people? That is no principle." That should be the obvious.
My reference to ACORN was based on some craziness here too.
Back when Ryan first came out with his first Medicare plan I saw on cable news that he was getting lots of grief for it at his Town Hall meetings.
Always trying to be the voice of reality I pointed that out here. Well I get these responses claiming it was ACORN. So I point out that the protestors were 50+ whites.
It is similar to the cries of voter fraud.
("Don't threaten my fantasy world or you are my enemy")
same old..
All revenue bills must originate in the House, correct?
It would be a shame if Air Force One didn't get a fuel budget for the year and the President was forced to fly commercial.
It would be an equal shame if the President's paycheck were cut in half.
It would be real crying shame if the President's vacation budget were zeroed and the White House Entertainment Budget were zeroed as well.
It would be even more of a shame if all the czars were to see their salaries go to zero.
I agree. Forget negotiating. Zero the Zero's budgets.
Our guys invented capitalism. Their guys invented theft. We can reinvent a system they can't loot... it can be done.
The problem is this crackpot author is recommending that GOP suicide by claiming that the Rs would win for holding the middle class tax cuts hostage to the 2% tax cuts.
If he had his way Obama would be left with NO effective opposition, and right now he has weak opposition
This commentary knocks it out of the park. I am 100% in agreement with everything here. The absolute best strategy for the GOP House to do at this point is to do absolutely nothing. And the most important ‘nothing’ of all (which was not mentioned here) is to NOT RAISE THE DEBT CEILING. Cut up Obama’s credit card here and now. Let’s see him try to govern with a balanced budget for the next four years.
Ping! This commentary relays my sentiments exactly.
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