“The global fertility rate is still way above replacement level at 2.47. The population will continue to increase.”
By definition - if the cohort in 2012 is smaller than the cohort in 2011, population is actually shrinking, not growing. There will be fewer children from one year to the next. You’ll see this happen in 5 years or so.
“I wouldn’t say mostly yet”
Yeah, it is mostly. 2.47 won’t see a natural population growth rate of more than a percent.
“China has a fertility rate well below replacement levels but its population continues to rise for that reason.”
Yes, but this is just a short-term phenomenon. Long term - China’s population will crash. There is nothing they can do about it - this crash is baked in. Once the cohorts start shrinking - the global crash is baked in too. Thankfully I’ll never see the actual crash in my lifetime. But it is coming.
“I doubt they will be going to China for a number of reasons including political and cultural reasons.”
China has no choice. They need 50 million people/year, and the only area with that many people is India. If they do not get 30 million people a year, they will crash.
“Estimations are that Chinese cities will face an influx of another 243 million migrants by 2025”
It won’t be enough. 2025 is 15 years away and they need 450 million people in that span to replace those leaving the workforce. China is doomed.
“Please be more specific about how Obama is trying to cut us off from a prosperous future as it applies to population growth.”
By lowering American fertility though publicly funded abortion and contraception in Obamacare.
“Do you think that adding 130 million to our population over the next 40 years, 80% due to immigration, will reduce spending.”
We won’t get 130 million over 40 years. We’ll be lucky to see 30 million. They won’t need to come illegally, because everyone is going to be in demand for immigration. There just aren’t going to be enough people to go around.
“We just added another huge entitlement program—Obamacare—a few years ago.”
And it needs to be cut. The problem is spending, and we need to dump Obamacare. We cannot afford Obamacare.
“If they can’t cut $100 billion out of an annual budget of $3.7 trillion, how the hell do you expect them to cut spending?”
Cuts are inevitable at this point.
“The Dems will tax more to keep the welfare state treading water for as long as they can.”
They will attempt to, but spending cuts are inevitable at this point.
“We can’t afford to spend even European levels on welfare and entitlement programs”
There’s just no way. Europe can’t afford what they are spending, let alone the US which is wealthier. Spending has to be cut to get the fiscal house of the US in order.
“Cut spending? That’s a joke.”
It’s going to happen. Either now, or later. Might have to wait for all the boomers to die off so that they’ve got theirs, but we’ll fix it.
“Given that we’re spending like Norwegians, why don’t we just pay Norwegian tax rates?”
Because we aren’t Norwegians? Cut spending. That is the only way out of this mess. Taxing more will reduce, not increase government revenues and will just make things collapse sooner.
What kind of tortured reasoning is that? I live in the real world where the global population is increasing .096% a year--not shrinking. The only time the population starts shrinking globally is when we go below replacement level. That is some time off. The rate of increase will shrink if the current trends hold. Still, the population of the globe is expected to hit 10.1 billion in the next 90 years and 9.3 billion by 2050 up from the current 7 billion.
Yeah, it is mostly. 2.47 won’t see a natural population growth rate of more than a percent.
It is less than a percent now.
China has no choice. They need 50 million people/year, and the only area with that many people is India. If they do not get 30 million people a year, they will crash.
They have enough people. China's problem is stopping the flow of people from rural areas into the cities. It is the reason why they have laws to control this process. They need people for food production, but those numbers can be reduced significantly thru mechanization to make their farmers more productive.
It won’t be enough. 2025 is 15 years away and they need 450 million people in that span to replace those leaving the workforce. China is doomed.
Where did you come up with that number? And China is far from doomed. Its economy will soon surpass the US in terms of size. China's problems are many, some of them self-inflicted like the one-child policy, but they are no more doomed than we are. With 1.3 billion people they can adjust and adapt as circumstances warrant. One of the main challenges will be to stimulate domestic consumption so they don't depend on exports.
By lowering American fertility though publicly funded abortion and contraception in Obamacare.
If Obama is successful in passing an amnesty, you will see a flood of people entering this country. The Heritage Foundation concluded that the cost of amnesty would be $2.6 trillion just for increased entitlement program costs. And the number of additional LEGAL immigrants who would join those who were the recipients of amnesty through chain migration, i.e., family reunification, would approach 70 million over a 20-year period, assuming there are only 12 million illegal aliens. We cannot assimilate such numbers. An amnesty would destroy the United States of America with the stroke of a pen.
We won’t get 130 million over 40 years. We’ll be lucky to see 30 million. They won’t need to come illegally, because everyone is going to be in demand for immigration. There just aren’t going to be enough people to go around.
LOL. When is all this going to start happening? There are probably 4 billion people in the world who would love to get into the US. We bring in 1.2 million legal immigrants now and could easily double or triple number by just increasing the numbers. Of course, these people will be a net drain on our society. You are living in a fantasy world.
FYI: The 130 million increase in our population projected by the Census Bureau over the next 40 years is due to births and immigration. Right now we are adding net one person every 15 seconds to our population. The projection doesn't include an amnesty. I have no idea as to when you think we are going to have a people shortage. I do know that we have added 113 million to our population since 1970 including 34 million since 2000. The decade ending in 2010 saw the largest number of immigrants in our history--13.9 million.
There’s just no way. Europe can’t afford what they are spending, let alone the US which is wealthier. Spending has to be cut to get the fiscal house of the US in order.
Spending is the problem, but there is no political will to cut spending. We have known for decades that the welfare state is unsustainable. People don't want the pain that spending cuts will have. We have 54 million on SS, 47 million on Medicare, 70 million on Medicaid, 47 million on food stamps, etc. and those numbers will go up as 10,000 people a day retire. By 2030, one in five in this country will be 65 or older--twice what it is now and we will have two workers for every retiree.
I don't see Obama and Boehner coming up with any real spending cuts, just a promise, if that to reduce the rate of growth of spending. We are going to hit the wall eventually. Spending will be cut the same way it was in Greece. And we will have people in the streets demanding that government live up to its promises. This will happen long before we have a people shortage.
And it needs to be cut. The problem is spending, and we need to dump Obamacare. We cannot afford Obamacare.
Not going to happen as long as Obama is in the WH. In fact, it is digging deep roots as it is implemented. There is no way the Dems will let this signature piece of legislation get dumped. Saying something doesn't make it happen. Again, I live in the real world.
It’s going to happen. Either now, or later. Might have to wait for all the boomers to die off so that they’ve got theirs, but we’ll fix it.
If we have to wait that long, the country will be finished. We already have $16 trillion in debt and annual deficits of $1 trillion for a long time to come. Add over $60 trillion in unfunded liabilities plus another huge entitlement program, Obamacare, that will add even more to the debt. Financial collapse and civil unrest will make a comeback very difficult. Add to that the changed demography of this country that will see the eclipse of non-Hispanic whites by minorities that generally will be less educated and more dependent upon government. With out of wedlock birthrates of 50% for Hispanics and 71% for blacks and school drop out rates approaching 50% for those groups, the fastest growing in our country and you have a recipe for disaster. Demography is destiny.
Because we aren’t Norwegians? Cut spending. That is the only way out of this mess. Taxing more will reduce, not increase government revenues and will just make things collapse sooner.
It just won't happen. Collapse will come first. And that could take a while as the statists do everything they can to keep the welfare state afloat a little longer. Again, I live in the real world.