What kind of tortured reasoning is that? I live in the real world where the global population is increasing .096% a year--not shrinking. The only time the population starts shrinking globally is when we go below replacement level. That is some time off. The rate of increase will shrink if the current trends hold. Still, the population of the globe is expected to hit 10.1 billion in the next 90 years and 9.3 billion by 2050 up from the current 7 billion.
Yeah, it is mostly. 2.47 won’t see a natural population growth rate of more than a percent.
It is less than a percent now.
China has no choice. They need 50 million people/year, and the only area with that many people is India. If they do not get 30 million people a year, they will crash.
They have enough people. China's problem is stopping the flow of people from rural areas into the cities. It is the reason why they have laws to control this process. They need people for food production, but those numbers can be reduced significantly thru mechanization to make their farmers more productive.
It won’t be enough. 2025 is 15 years away and they need 450 million people in that span to replace those leaving the workforce. China is doomed.
Where did you come up with that number? And China is far from doomed. Its economy will soon surpass the US in terms of size. China's problems are many, some of them self-inflicted like the one-child policy, but they are no more doomed than we are. With 1.3 billion people they can adjust and adapt as circumstances warrant. One of the main challenges will be to stimulate domestic consumption so they don't depend on exports.
By lowering American fertility though publicly funded abortion and contraception in Obamacare.
If Obama is successful in passing an amnesty, you will see a flood of people entering this country. The Heritage Foundation concluded that the cost of amnesty would be $2.6 trillion just for increased entitlement program costs. And the number of additional LEGAL immigrants who would join those who were the recipients of amnesty through chain migration, i.e., family reunification, would approach 70 million over a 20-year period, assuming there are only 12 million illegal aliens. We cannot assimilate such numbers. An amnesty would destroy the United States of America with the stroke of a pen.
We won’t get 130 million over 40 years. We’ll be lucky to see 30 million. They won’t need to come illegally, because everyone is going to be in demand for immigration. There just aren’t going to be enough people to go around.
LOL. When is all this going to start happening? There are probably 4 billion people in the world who would love to get into the US. We bring in 1.2 million legal immigrants now and could easily double or triple number by just increasing the numbers. Of course, these people will be a net drain on our society. You are living in a fantasy world.
FYI: The 130 million increase in our population projected by the Census Bureau over the next 40 years is due to births and immigration. Right now we are adding net one person every 15 seconds to our population. The projection doesn't include an amnesty. I have no idea as to when you think we are going to have a people shortage. I do know that we have added 113 million to our population since 1970 including 34 million since 2000. The decade ending in 2010 saw the largest number of immigrants in our history--13.9 million.
There’s just no way. Europe can’t afford what they are spending, let alone the US which is wealthier. Spending has to be cut to get the fiscal house of the US in order.
Spending is the problem, but there is no political will to cut spending. We have known for decades that the welfare state is unsustainable. People don't want the pain that spending cuts will have. We have 54 million on SS, 47 million on Medicare, 70 million on Medicaid, 47 million on food stamps, etc. and those numbers will go up as 10,000 people a day retire. By 2030, one in five in this country will be 65 or older--twice what it is now and we will have two workers for every retiree.
I don't see Obama and Boehner coming up with any real spending cuts, just a promise, if that to reduce the rate of growth of spending. We are going to hit the wall eventually. Spending will be cut the same way it was in Greece. And we will have people in the streets demanding that government live up to its promises. This will happen long before we have a people shortage.
And it needs to be cut. The problem is spending, and we need to dump Obamacare. We cannot afford Obamacare.
Not going to happen as long as Obama is in the WH. In fact, it is digging deep roots as it is implemented. There is no way the Dems will let this signature piece of legislation get dumped. Saying something doesn't make it happen. Again, I live in the real world.
It’s going to happen. Either now, or later. Might have to wait for all the boomers to die off so that they’ve got theirs, but we’ll fix it.
If we have to wait that long, the country will be finished. We already have $16 trillion in debt and annual deficits of $1 trillion for a long time to come. Add over $60 trillion in unfunded liabilities plus another huge entitlement program, Obamacare, that will add even more to the debt. Financial collapse and civil unrest will make a comeback very difficult. Add to that the changed demography of this country that will see the eclipse of non-Hispanic whites by minorities that generally will be less educated and more dependent upon government. With out of wedlock birthrates of 50% for Hispanics and 71% for blacks and school drop out rates approaching 50% for those groups, the fastest growing in our country and you have a recipe for disaster. Demography is destiny.
Because we aren’t Norwegians? Cut spending. That is the only way out of this mess. Taxing more will reduce, not increase government revenues and will just make things collapse sooner.
It just won't happen. Collapse will come first. And that could take a while as the statists do everything they can to keep the welfare state afloat a little longer. Again, I live in the real world.
“What kind of tortured reasoning is that?”
The same reasoning that produced the baby boom.
“The only time the population starts shrinking globally is when we go below replacement level.”
Given that we are very close to replacement level now, any significant drop in the cohort will shrink the population.
“It is less than a percent now.”
Which is not very much at all. Population has essentially levelled off.
“They have enough people.”
No, they don’t have enough people to keep their workforce going. Their workforce is shrinking and the average chinese person is older than in the US.
“China’s problem is stopping the flow of people from rural areas into the cities.”
China is going to need all the workers they can get. Internal migration will help them stave off the workforce problem. The less mobile the population, the greater the problems they will experience as local shortages arise.
“They need people for food production, but those numbers can be reduced significantly thru mechanization to make their farmers more productive.”
The problem is that they are still too poor and they are already too old to really implement mechanization to the same degree as the west.
“Where did you come up with that number?”
TFR now as a proportion of replacement TFR. They have a 50 percent shortfall and their total birthrate will give you about 30-50 million depending on their immigration.
“Its economy will soon surpass the US in terms of size.”
Nope, not going to happen. They’ve crested, probably in 2008 with Beijing.
“they are no more doomed than we are.”
The US does not have a 50 percent gap in their workforce coming as a result of the one child policy. They’ve had it running for 30 years, so their shortage will really start to bite now.
“One of the main challenges will be to stimulate domestic consumption so they don’t depend on exports.”
True, but they won’t have the money to do it.
No commentary on Obamacare lowering American fertility?
“LOL. When is all this going to start happening?”
It’s already happening, at least with Mexican immigration.
TFR in Mexico is 2.27. That means just 8 percent of the 2012 cohort would be interested in leaving Mexico. That works out to 175k a year from Mexico, in 20 years time.
That works out to a demand of 7 million immigrants total from Mexico between now and then.
“There are probably 4 billion people in the world who would love to get into the US.”
Then why doesn’t all the UK pack up and leave? A better estimation of Immigration (and fwiw, I don’t know anyone else who does it this way), is to take TFR over replacement and calculate out the proportion of the cohort who would be willing to leave.
“You are living in a fantasy world.”
No, you are.
“I have no idea as to when you think we are going to have a people shortage.”
Hopefully we never experience one due to native population growth. But we will start seeing immigration peter out in about 20 years time.
“People don’t want the pain”
Pain is coming.
“I don’t see Obama and Boehner coming up with any real spending cuts, just a promise, if that to reduce the rate of growth of spending.”
Cuts are going to have to be made.
“This will happen long before we have a people shortage.”
True, at least in America. But in Europe the problem is being felt and Russia has already collapsed. You’ll see the fiscal collapse in another 8 years.
“Saying something doesn’t make it happen. Again, I live in the real world.”
And the real world will intervene to gut Obamacare.
“It just won’t happen. Collapse will come first. And that could take a while as the statists do everything they can to keep the welfare state afloat a little longer. Again, I live in the real world.”
Yeah, I agree with that. Collapse is not yet inevitable, it can still be avoided. But cutbacks cannot.